China’s rare earth ban is widening the weapons gap with its enemies
Gallium nitride (GaN) based semiconductors give China superior radar technology
When I first wrote about China’s rare earth export control in reaction to Trump’s tariff war back in April, the topic was an obscure technical one. https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/rare-earth-and-reindustrialization?utm_source=publication-search
Over the past months, mainstream media has given the subject saturation coverage and now everyone realizes the importance of rare earth in high tech production, especially for weapon systems.
Still, few understand how rare earth products impact weapon development and production at the granular technical level.
Today I’ll dive into a low-key rare earth based technology that was the quiet superstar in the September 3 military parade in Beijing – the gallium nitride (GaN) based active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.
Radar technology is a core foundational capability in modern warfare – the equivalent of the human ability to see. What your radar can see and how far are critical in today’s battlefield, especially where stealth aircraft and high-speed missiles rule the sky.
The recent India-Pakistan war was a live example of how beyond-visual-range (BVR) air battles are fought. Whoever gets to see the enemy first and fires first, ideally from a distance beyond enemy’s own firepower, wins the war.
Radar technology such as GaN AESA plays a deciding role. The PL-15E missiles that delivered the mission kills for Pakistan are equipped with miniaturized AESA target seekers.
GaN AESA radar is the crown jewel of radar technology. Phased array radar has long been considered as high performance, high complexity, and high cost.
To this day, most of Russia’s advanced Su-35 fighters still use passive electronically scanned array (PESA) radar due to its limited electronics capability.
While the US was a pioneer in AESA technology, its deployment has been slow and costly. For example, most of the Arleigh Burke class destroyers continue to use the SPY-1 PESA radar. Only its most recent US$4 billion Flight III Burke-class ship was finally equipped with the SPY-6 GaN AESA system in 2024.
In contrast, due to Beijing’s global lead in rare earth minerals and its lead in third generation semiconductors, GaN AESA radars are deployed at scale on a wide range of Chinese weaponry.
In the Sept 3 parade, GaN AESA radar technology was showcased from the KJ-500 AWAC plane to the Type 100 fourth-generation battle tanks which feature 360-degree, multiple GaN AESA units. AESA technology was also found in the various hypersonic missiles and the LY-1 ship-borne laser air defense weapon.
At its heart lies China’s growing dominance in GaN-based 3rd generation semiconductors.
Third generation semiconductors are made with wide bandgap materials such as gallium nitride (GaN), silicon carbide (SiC) and indium selenide (InSe), designed for high power, high frequency, high voltage, and high temperature applications and offer superior performance compared with first generation silicon-based semiconductors.
Third generation semiconductors are widely used in electric vehicles, 5G base stations, solar and wind power systems, high-end consumer electronics as well as high-end weapons.
Compared with silicon chips, third generation semiconductors such as GaN chips or InSe chips are still in their early stage of large-scale commercial production and application due to high cost, low processing maturity, and limited production infrastructure.
However, their superior performance is highly valued in the extreme conditions military weapons operate under, e.g. high temperature environment missiles experience during hypersonic flights.
Beijing has invested heavily in the 3rd generation semiconductor technology, especially in GaN and InSe chips. Beijing announced in March that it has achieved mass production of 8-inch GaN wafers. Peking University recently announced a major breakthrough with indium selenide (InSe) chip design and production.
I plan to write a separate piece on the InSe chip breakthrough which could disrupt global semiconductor industry.
Beijing also enjoys an overwhelming advantage in the production and processing of the rare earth materials that power the 3rd generation semiconductors, giving it a strategic advantage in the global high-tech arms race.
With its position as the world’s largest producer of aluminum, China has a natural advantage in large-scale gallium extraction – a by-product of aluminum production alongside bauxite and lead-zinc ores. In 2024, China produced 43 million tons of aluminum, representing 60% global supply.
According to a 2023 US Geological Survey, China accounted for about 68 per cent of the 279,300 tons of global proven reserves of gallium metal.
China also has highly mature refining and processing technologies, accounting for more than 90 per cent of global refined gallium production in 2023.
China’s massive industrial base and commercial demand have driven GaN’s adoption – from smartphones, 5G base stations, automotive radar in EVs, drones, to satellite communication networks – with its properties highly valued across electronics and communications. China leads the world in the production of most of the above high-tech industries.
While Washington launched overt bans to curb China’s access to advanced chips, Beijing’s countermove to restrict US access to rare earth minerals such as gallium has effectively become a silent sanction on the 3rd generation semiconductor industry in the US, particularly its defense capabilities.
Beijing’s export control on gallium, germanium, antimony, and neodymium has reinforced its near monopoly on the production of essential materials for future military electronics.
This strategic leverage has enabled China to deploy cutting-edge phased array radar systems across its armed forces at a pace and scale unmatched by the US and its vassals.
China is the only country deploying GaN-based phased array radar on a large scale. According to state broadcaster CCTV, the domestically developed radars are interconnected to form coordinated networks capable of detecting stealth aircraft, ballistic missiles and other targets.
Outside of military applications, GaN chips are more energy efficient than their silicon-based counterparts, paving the way for an energy revolution in AI data centers. The industry estimates that a fully upgraded site with GaN chips could reduce energy consumption by more than 30 per cent.
China’s global leadership in GaN-based phased array technology is an example of the “military-civilian fusion strategy” – a central pillar of Beijing’s plan to develop a modern military.
Under the strategy, military technology is first disseminated to civilian markets, where enormous demand drives rapid iteration in the supply chain. This leads to increased production capacity, lower costs, and continuously improving reliability. The commercial scale, in turn, provides for a highly cost-competitive military procurement ecosystem.
When people witnessed the display of high-tech hardware in the September 3 military parade, few think about how technical superiority is achieved and reinforced. Hopefully the GaN AESA radar gives a vivid illustration.
Many are aware that China leads the world in hypersonic missile development and is leapfrogging the West in 6th generation fighter development. However, few understand that such breakthroughs are not possible without Beijing’s massive investment in wind tunnel technology such as the JF-22 hypersonic wind tunnel at the China Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Mechanics in Beijing, which is the world’s most advanced wind tunnel and can simulate speed up to Mach 30.
China’s military progress results from investment in tech infrastructure, human capital, and state will. Technological leadership can only be achieved through long-term planning and system thinking.
China’s growing military superiority based on its dominance in critical minerals such as rare earth is the child of such planning.
China's success is astounding demonstrating what focused planning can achieve. The US will never achieve such success as it is buried under too many deeply entrenched negative ideologies. As historian Paul Kennedy pointed out a long time ago a strong industrial base is essential for any great power. The US has eroded theirs out of existence.
The U.S. is wed to an economic system of virtually unrestrained, financialized capitalistic greed built on monopoly creation, political influence, private equity, short-term returns, no allegiance to popular or national goals. It turns out this system is not compatible with the practical development of superior national military power.
China and Russia have shown that some "capitalistic" methods have a place in modern economies, but that the resulting "capitalist" elites must not be allowed to to become politically, economically or socially dominant (as in the U.S. where they set and enforce priorities in accordance with their private interests.)
Instead these "capitalist" elites must be strictly subordinated to national governments that can place the collective interests of the people and the nation's defense ahead the private individualistic interests tiny economic elites.
Of course, national governments and their leaders must also be watched closely by the citizenry to avoid corruption and ensure service to the people and national interest, but this seems easier in practice than trying to hold rootless transnational and immensely wealthy financial elites to account.