China's success is astounding demonstrating what focused planning can achieve. The US will never achieve such success as it is buried under too many deeply entrenched negative ideologies. As historian Paul Kennedy pointed out a long time ago a strong industrial base is essential for any great power. The US has eroded theirs out of existence.
deindustrialization is mainly due to greed. when you outsource, you lower cost and improve profits. also industry is hard, when compared with the FIRE sector and high tech, let alone the so called "service economy". It is much hard to be an engineer and build a bridge than be a lawyer and "argue" in a courthouse or "draft" legal memos.
once you discover making money is so much easier to be in finance and service and retail, there is no incentive to work as an engieer or on factory floor. This is a one way street and why I have long argued reindustrialization is impossible in the west.
I think you are right the West is buried under too many negative ideologies.
I have said for some time fascists are just too lazy to practice social democracy and progressive societies. China is a mature society showing what can be done. America is a vulgar frontier society littered with 19th century robber barons.
agree. you achieve maturity only over time. China went through numerous highs and lows over the last 4000 years. the US only knows one trajectory. they are not prepared to experience a downturn.
I have been a spectator to the rise and fall of the American empire from a front row seat in Canada, simultaneously seeing the colonization of Canada. It is an insidious process that goes undetected by most.
the Canada today is not the Canada in the 1960s and 70s, maybe even more recently. I am sorry to see the country has become a vassal and taken over by your neighbor in the south. in many ways, it's already the 51st state.
Canada saved China from a worse famine in the late 50s when it sold grain to China despite the US embargo. people are always thankful to the country. Also the most famous surgeon in modern China is a Canadian, Norman Bethune, who worked with the communist guerrilas in the 40s. there are still numerous statues of his across China.
Have you read George Grant's Lament for a Nation,1965? It was pivotal to my political education. He predicted just what is happening now. Most Canadians are indifferent to our colonization.
I now consider myself an internationalist as that is where the important stuff is being decided. Canada like Europe has suffered too much colonization, it is very deeply embedded.
I think you mentioned reading John Ralston Saul, a very big influence on my writing.
The U.S. is wed to an economic system of virtually unrestrained, financialized capitalistic greed built on monopoly creation, political influence, private equity, short-term returns, no allegiance to popular or national goals. It turns out this system is not compatible with the practical development of superior national military power.
China and Russia have shown that some "capitalistic" methods have a place in modern economies, but that the resulting "capitalist" elites must not be allowed to to become politically, economically or socially dominant (as in the U.S. where they set and enforce priorities in accordance with their private interests.)
Instead these "capitalist" elites must be strictly subordinated to national governments that can place the collective interests of the people and the nation's defense ahead the private individualistic interests tiny economic elites.
Of course, national governments and their leaders must also be watched closely by the citizenry to avoid corruption and ensure service to the people and national interest, but this seems easier in practice than trying to hold rootless transnational and immensely wealthy financial elites to account.
well said. China considers itself not a capitalist economy, but rather a market-based economy. The definition of a capitalist society is the society is organized around the capitalists (owner class) and the state and the population serve the interest of capital. China has firmly rejected that. For example, Jack Ma can make billions but has no ability to influence policy. when he stepped out of the line, he was put back in his right place. There are rich people in China but they don't have more political power than the average citizen.
an economy can be market based and highly competitive without being a capitalistic one.
Exactly! Americans like to say China has "gone capitalist" but that is wrong. Saying China is a "capitalist" country completely misunderstands capitalism, not to mention China. Americans don't even understand capitalism, purposely confusing it with "free enterprise" and "free markets" and leaving out the inevitable concentration of wealth and power and resulting mass exploitation that is its most salient characteristic.
Lennin foresaw imperialsim and monopoly is the final stage of capitalism. But most americans are blissfully ignorant of the true nature of their system.
The Chinese God Thy Kingdom Come! And Thy Will Be Done On Earth! - A Shared Common Prosperity for Mankind Under One Holy Heaven! No Occult Underground tunnels or scary creatures in secret covens! - by Military Power that has the enemy shuddering and panting in his blood lust driven march.
China's ideal is co-existence and live and let live. When people work together toward prosperity and development, it's a win win situation. Western thinking is dominated by a zero sum game winner take all world view.
Historically human civilisation had only two axis ever - JudeoRoma and China - built on diametrically opposite principles - aristocracy vs meritocracy. JudeoRoma was just Phoenicia-Babylon 2.0 which moved to England and became PhoeniciaBabylon 3.0 and then around 1945 moved to America and became PhoeniciaBabylon 4.0 - the same beast and in fact with the most undemocratic system with the same PhoeniciaBabylon 1.0 oligarchic bloodlines through secret societies like Freemasonry, Rosicrucianism Jesuitism, and various post-Christian churches like Roman Catholicism, Protestantism and Evangelicalism maintaining the absolute strangle hold of these flesh eating and blood drinking warrior-usurer oligarchy in continuous power for 3000 years or more. Meanwhile in China once the Confucian meritocratic system was instituted the most brilliant among the mere peasants are pivoted to the ruling class through the most rigorous examination system while the dullards and idiots among the ruling class are funneled down to the bottom to start their way to the top all over again through hard work and skill if they can. The coming war with China is JudeoRoma sensing that China could open humanity's eyes to an entirely different cohesive the nation and the globe as a family, merit than entitlement, and equal opportunity system before them rather than the permanent plunder and genocide based bloodline warrior and usurer ruled oligopoly that the west calls through typical gnostic inversion and double entendre - free market democracy ! I believe that China and its model will conclusively win over JudeoRoma conclusively by 2100-2150.
It's a powerful analysis based on historical context of the two kinds of civilizations. I completely share the perspective.
I would add religion is also a core shaping factor in the formation of civilizations and values. China has never had a monotheistic regilion. Its home grown regilion, if it can be called that, is Taoism, which is about humans achieving deity through self betterment and harmony between man and heaven. Many also believe in Buddhism which is polytheistic. Monotheistic religion has the benefit of simplicity but leads to a black and white world view. In the modern world we live in, such belief system is fundamentally intolerant and unsustainable.
At this point, it does not really matter because big satan cannot win a conventional war. China controls all the cards. I believe China supplies about 80% of big satan's weapon production. The ironic thing is, the company did the analysis, was paid by the dept of defense, or should I say dept of war, lol. If it goes kinetic, it will be a nuke scenario. Big satan still thinks it can get away with that strategy when no one could "reach" you due to your geographically strategic advantage. Not anymore. At the end, no one wins with these psychos.
Indeed. the research firm is Giovini and its published a very granular analysis of how Pentagon relies on Chinese supply in its weapon systems. Among the over 12,000 reviewed, 78% contains Chinese inputs and some are critical dependencies, meaning either there is no alternative suppliers (e.g. permanent magnets) or there is no cost-effective replacement.
fighting China is the equilavent of biting the hand that feeds the dog. if they are crazy enough to escalate to nuke war, they can rest assured that will be reciprocated, gold dome or not. it's amazing how the fate of the world is to be determined by how demented the US will be.
Thank you for a great post. One nitpick - Russia is by far the world leader in hypersonic missile technology. There are three variants to how such a system can work, and Russia has a working production model in each of the categories. Russia is the only country that has tested its hypersonic missiles in battlefield conditions - and proved that it can take out sophisticated air defense (U.S. Patriot batteries) with the system as the AD doesn't have adequate time to respond.
I don't think anyone does. The operation of a true hypersonic (mach 9+) missile is very complex. For example, the Russian air-launched Khinzhal (the hypersonic platform with the most launches) must be launched at a high altitude. It climbs to near-earth orbit before beginning its descent. Upon reaching hypersonic speed, it displays the characteristic of hypersonic projectiles - it develops a plasma envelope that obscures the view of the missile and blocks all radiation in or out of the plasma boundary (so no radio control). As it re-enters the Earth's atmosphere, it is slowed by air friction until it's speed has dropped to Mach 5 or so over the target. The Zircon deploys a cluster of warheads and decoys once they are again controllable by conventional flight surfaces.
The Russian Avangard hypersonic glider flies at Mach 20-27 on a very low flight path. It doesn't carry a warhead, and uses the kinetic energy of its mass to cause damage when it strikes a target. It has only been photographed once at a distance, and hasn't been used in the field. Russia also has their Zircon system that is similar to the Khinzhal but designed to target ships. It hasn't been observed in use or trials.
China has the DF-JZ hypersonic glider, which is similar to the Russian Avangard glider. Its innovation is being launched from a normal ballistic missile (the Chinese DF-17) at the end of its flight path. It requires substantial horizontal distance to reach hypersonic speeds, and is a kinetic device. The Chinese YJ-19 is similar to the Russian Khinzhal (it shares the use of a scramjet engine to accelerate the projectile while high in the Earth's outer atmosphere, where there is little air - they carry their own oxidant). It has never been observed at launch, and was only shown in China's recent military parade on the ground.
None of these systems would be used to target a fighter jet. They require substantial resources to launch, and substantial time to reach their targets. They're designed for relatively fixed targets - heavily fortified civilian infrastructure like dams, air defense systems, slow-moving naval ships.
China is developing a hypersonic air to air missile, reported by SCMP earlier this year. Supposedly there have already been tests. If fielded, it would be in the PL fmaily which includes the PL-15 and PL-17 BVR AAM.
China's hypersonic arsenal is extensive including both land and ship launched. The hypersonics in the DF family includes DF-17, DF-ZF, DF-21D, DF-21D, DF-27; in the YJ family, there is YJ-19, YJ-21, YJ-17, YJ-20; in the CJ family, CJ-1000 - the world's first hypersonic cruise missile. I could have missed one or two. But a simple Google search can provide the info. Of course, these don't include ICBMs which are by definition hypersonic. The above models are intermediate range or interregional hypersonic missiles.
the most interesting one, in my view, is the CJ-1000, shown for the first time in September. Most estimates put the range at 6000 kilometers and designed to target airplanes such as AWAC and refueling tankers back in the "safe" zone. Another interesting model is YJ-19, which uses a scram-jet. I'll write about the models in a later piece.
I'll look forward to your follow up piece! I've read your articles for a while and learned a lot, especially about Chinese semiconductor manufacturing advancements. I'm a software engineer but came from a military family, so have an interest in it. Radar is particularly interesting to me due to the physics involved and the esoteric materials - plus the enormous expense of such a seemingly simple device.
I suspect the Chinese models you mentioned are all variants of the same underlying platform or technology set. There was a video that circulated on Russian / Ukrainian Telegram channels showing the plasma envelope around the Russian Khinzhal that destroyed a Patriot air defense system at the Kiev international airport about a year ago. I can't find it now, but it was very intense - especially how as soon as the projectile came out of it due to slowing down from air friction, it deployed its multiple-reentry vehicles and decoys.
I don't understand the physics of how a CJ-1000 (or true hypersonic missile generally) could attack an AWACs plane or refueling tanker. It seems like simple evasive maneuvers - even in a large and mobility-limited platforms like AWACS/refueling tankers - would defeat the hypersonic. Or that the advantage of a hypersonic would be lost in that application, and a regular cruise missile would be as effective.
I'm just a lay person though, and don't really know except for what I've read online. Thanks again for your writing!
mil tech is the pinnacle of application science. the USSR was a great innovator in its glory days. too bad the economy was run poorly and too much investment went into arms race. China learned the lesson and focused on economic development before investing in military and very selectively.
as for the DF, YJ, and CF families, the hypersonic models vary in range, speed, propulsion technology, ballistic arcs and maneuveurability. I am sure the underlying technologies have many commonalities such as material science, heat management, guidance systems, jamming resistence, etc. The breakthroughs come from investment in hardware infrastructure like the JF-22 windtunnel I mentioned in the article.
the US dept of war reported China conducted more hypersonic missile tests in the last 10 years than the rest of the world combined. So they have space-based sensors that can track global ballistic launches. I assume the report is accurate.
The challenge is of course no one knows how they perform in battlefields. But few want to find out - especially at the receiving end. Hopefully that is the deterence.
That's a good observation on China learning from the Soviet experience, and putting the horse before the cart on developing their economy. I hadn't considered that.
Everybody steals, and that's been consistent throughout human history. What's more relevant is how capable any entity (state, corporate, individual) is to resisting it.
China's success is astounding demonstrating what focused planning can achieve. The US will never achieve such success as it is buried under too many deeply entrenched negative ideologies. As historian Paul Kennedy pointed out a long time ago a strong industrial base is essential for any great power. The US has eroded theirs out of existence.
deindustrialization is mainly due to greed. when you outsource, you lower cost and improve profits. also industry is hard, when compared with the FIRE sector and high tech, let alone the so called "service economy". It is much hard to be an engineer and build a bridge than be a lawyer and "argue" in a courthouse or "draft" legal memos.
once you discover making money is so much easier to be in finance and service and retail, there is no incentive to work as an engieer or on factory floor. This is a one way street and why I have long argued reindustrialization is impossible in the west.
I think you are right the West is buried under too many negative ideologies.
I have said for some time fascists are just too lazy to practice social democracy and progressive societies. China is a mature society showing what can be done. America is a vulgar frontier society littered with 19th century robber barons.
agree. you achieve maturity only over time. China went through numerous highs and lows over the last 4000 years. the US only knows one trajectory. they are not prepared to experience a downturn.
I have been a spectator to the rise and fall of the American empire from a front row seat in Canada, simultaneously seeing the colonization of Canada. It is an insidious process that goes undetected by most.
the Canada today is not the Canada in the 1960s and 70s, maybe even more recently. I am sorry to see the country has become a vassal and taken over by your neighbor in the south. in many ways, it's already the 51st state.
Canada saved China from a worse famine in the late 50s when it sold grain to China despite the US embargo. people are always thankful to the country. Also the most famous surgeon in modern China is a Canadian, Norman Bethune, who worked with the communist guerrilas in the 40s. there are still numerous statues of his across China.
Have you read George Grant's Lament for a Nation,1965? It was pivotal to my political education. He predicted just what is happening now. Most Canadians are indifferent to our colonization.
I now consider myself an internationalist as that is where the important stuff is being decided. Canada like Europe has suffered too much colonization, it is very deeply embedded.
I think you mentioned reading John Ralston Saul, a very big influence on my writing.
The U.S. is wed to an economic system of virtually unrestrained, financialized capitalistic greed built on monopoly creation, political influence, private equity, short-term returns, no allegiance to popular or national goals. It turns out this system is not compatible with the practical development of superior national military power.
China and Russia have shown that some "capitalistic" methods have a place in modern economies, but that the resulting "capitalist" elites must not be allowed to to become politically, economically or socially dominant (as in the U.S. where they set and enforce priorities in accordance with their private interests.)
Instead these "capitalist" elites must be strictly subordinated to national governments that can place the collective interests of the people and the nation's defense ahead the private individualistic interests tiny economic elites.
Of course, national governments and their leaders must also be watched closely by the citizenry to avoid corruption and ensure service to the people and national interest, but this seems easier in practice than trying to hold rootless transnational and immensely wealthy financial elites to account.
well said. China considers itself not a capitalist economy, but rather a market-based economy. The definition of a capitalist society is the society is organized around the capitalists (owner class) and the state and the population serve the interest of capital. China has firmly rejected that. For example, Jack Ma can make billions but has no ability to influence policy. when he stepped out of the line, he was put back in his right place. There are rich people in China but they don't have more political power than the average citizen.
an economy can be market based and highly competitive without being a capitalistic one.
Exactly! Americans like to say China has "gone capitalist" but that is wrong. Saying China is a "capitalist" country completely misunderstands capitalism, not to mention China. Americans don't even understand capitalism, purposely confusing it with "free enterprise" and "free markets" and leaving out the inevitable concentration of wealth and power and resulting mass exploitation that is its most salient characteristic.
Lennin foresaw imperialsim and monopoly is the final stage of capitalism. But most americans are blissfully ignorant of the true nature of their system.
The Chinese God Thy Kingdom Come! And Thy Will Be Done On Earth! - A Shared Common Prosperity for Mankind Under One Holy Heaven! No Occult Underground tunnels or scary creatures in secret covens! - by Military Power that has the enemy shuddering and panting in his blood lust driven march.
China's ideal is co-existence and live and let live. When people work together toward prosperity and development, it's a win win situation. Western thinking is dominated by a zero sum game winner take all world view.
Historically human civilisation had only two axis ever - JudeoRoma and China - built on diametrically opposite principles - aristocracy vs meritocracy. JudeoRoma was just Phoenicia-Babylon 2.0 which moved to England and became PhoeniciaBabylon 3.0 and then around 1945 moved to America and became PhoeniciaBabylon 4.0 - the same beast and in fact with the most undemocratic system with the same PhoeniciaBabylon 1.0 oligarchic bloodlines through secret societies like Freemasonry, Rosicrucianism Jesuitism, and various post-Christian churches like Roman Catholicism, Protestantism and Evangelicalism maintaining the absolute strangle hold of these flesh eating and blood drinking warrior-usurer oligarchy in continuous power for 3000 years or more. Meanwhile in China once the Confucian meritocratic system was instituted the most brilliant among the mere peasants are pivoted to the ruling class through the most rigorous examination system while the dullards and idiots among the ruling class are funneled down to the bottom to start their way to the top all over again through hard work and skill if they can. The coming war with China is JudeoRoma sensing that China could open humanity's eyes to an entirely different cohesive the nation and the globe as a family, merit than entitlement, and equal opportunity system before them rather than the permanent plunder and genocide based bloodline warrior and usurer ruled oligopoly that the west calls through typical gnostic inversion and double entendre - free market democracy ! I believe that China and its model will conclusively win over JudeoRoma conclusively by 2100-2150.
It's a powerful analysis based on historical context of the two kinds of civilizations. I completely share the perspective.
I would add religion is also a core shaping factor in the formation of civilizations and values. China has never had a monotheistic regilion. Its home grown regilion, if it can be called that, is Taoism, which is about humans achieving deity through self betterment and harmony between man and heaven. Many also believe in Buddhism which is polytheistic. Monotheistic religion has the benefit of simplicity but leads to a black and white world view. In the modern world we live in, such belief system is fundamentally intolerant and unsustainable.
At this point, it does not really matter because big satan cannot win a conventional war. China controls all the cards. I believe China supplies about 80% of big satan's weapon production. The ironic thing is, the company did the analysis, was paid by the dept of defense, or should I say dept of war, lol. If it goes kinetic, it will be a nuke scenario. Big satan still thinks it can get away with that strategy when no one could "reach" you due to your geographically strategic advantage. Not anymore. At the end, no one wins with these psychos.
The latest GAO report on big satan's war preparedness or the lack of it, lol- https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-108679. Nothing new really.
Indeed. the research firm is Giovini and its published a very granular analysis of how Pentagon relies on Chinese supply in its weapon systems. Among the over 12,000 reviewed, 78% contains Chinese inputs and some are critical dependencies, meaning either there is no alternative suppliers (e.g. permanent magnets) or there is no cost-effective replacement.
fighting China is the equilavent of biting the hand that feeds the dog. if they are crazy enough to escalate to nuke war, they can rest assured that will be reciprocated, gold dome or not. it's amazing how the fate of the world is to be determined by how demented the US will be.
Thank you for a great post. One nitpick - Russia is by far the world leader in hypersonic missile technology. There are three variants to how such a system can work, and Russia has a working production model in each of the categories. Russia is the only country that has tested its hypersonic missiles in battlefield conditions - and proved that it can take out sophisticated air defense (U.S. Patriot batteries) with the system as the AD doesn't have adequate time to respond.
I don't think anyone does. The operation of a true hypersonic (mach 9+) missile is very complex. For example, the Russian air-launched Khinzhal (the hypersonic platform with the most launches) must be launched at a high altitude. It climbs to near-earth orbit before beginning its descent. Upon reaching hypersonic speed, it displays the characteristic of hypersonic projectiles - it develops a plasma envelope that obscures the view of the missile and blocks all radiation in or out of the plasma boundary (so no radio control). As it re-enters the Earth's atmosphere, it is slowed by air friction until it's speed has dropped to Mach 5 or so over the target. The Zircon deploys a cluster of warheads and decoys once they are again controllable by conventional flight surfaces.
The Russian Avangard hypersonic glider flies at Mach 20-27 on a very low flight path. It doesn't carry a warhead, and uses the kinetic energy of its mass to cause damage when it strikes a target. It has only been photographed once at a distance, and hasn't been used in the field. Russia also has their Zircon system that is similar to the Khinzhal but designed to target ships. It hasn't been observed in use or trials.
China has the DF-JZ hypersonic glider, which is similar to the Russian Avangard glider. Its innovation is being launched from a normal ballistic missile (the Chinese DF-17) at the end of its flight path. It requires substantial horizontal distance to reach hypersonic speeds, and is a kinetic device. The Chinese YJ-19 is similar to the Russian Khinzhal (it shares the use of a scramjet engine to accelerate the projectile while high in the Earth's outer atmosphere, where there is little air - they carry their own oxidant). It has never been observed at launch, and was only shown in China's recent military parade on the ground.
None of these systems would be used to target a fighter jet. They require substantial resources to launch, and substantial time to reach their targets. They're designed for relatively fixed targets - heavily fortified civilian infrastructure like dams, air defense systems, slow-moving naval ships.
here is my earlier article on China's hypersonic air to air missile. https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/a-watershed-hypersonic-technology?utm_source=publication-search
China is developing a hypersonic air to air missile, reported by SCMP earlier this year. Supposedly there have already been tests. If fielded, it would be in the PL fmaily which includes the PL-15 and PL-17 BVR AAM.
China's hypersonic arsenal is extensive including both land and ship launched. The hypersonics in the DF family includes DF-17, DF-ZF, DF-21D, DF-21D, DF-27; in the YJ family, there is YJ-19, YJ-21, YJ-17, YJ-20; in the CJ family, CJ-1000 - the world's first hypersonic cruise missile. I could have missed one or two. But a simple Google search can provide the info. Of course, these don't include ICBMs which are by definition hypersonic. The above models are intermediate range or interregional hypersonic missiles.
the most interesting one, in my view, is the CJ-1000, shown for the first time in September. Most estimates put the range at 6000 kilometers and designed to target airplanes such as AWAC and refueling tankers back in the "safe" zone. Another interesting model is YJ-19, which uses a scram-jet. I'll write about the models in a later piece.
I'll look forward to your follow up piece! I've read your articles for a while and learned a lot, especially about Chinese semiconductor manufacturing advancements. I'm a software engineer but came from a military family, so have an interest in it. Radar is particularly interesting to me due to the physics involved and the esoteric materials - plus the enormous expense of such a seemingly simple device.
I suspect the Chinese models you mentioned are all variants of the same underlying platform or technology set. There was a video that circulated on Russian / Ukrainian Telegram channels showing the plasma envelope around the Russian Khinzhal that destroyed a Patriot air defense system at the Kiev international airport about a year ago. I can't find it now, but it was very intense - especially how as soon as the projectile came out of it due to slowing down from air friction, it deployed its multiple-reentry vehicles and decoys.
I don't understand the physics of how a CJ-1000 (or true hypersonic missile generally) could attack an AWACs plane or refueling tanker. It seems like simple evasive maneuvers - even in a large and mobility-limited platforms like AWACS/refueling tankers - would defeat the hypersonic. Or that the advantage of a hypersonic would be lost in that application, and a regular cruise missile would be as effective.
I'm just a lay person though, and don't really know except for what I've read online. Thanks again for your writing!
mil tech is the pinnacle of application science. the USSR was a great innovator in its glory days. too bad the economy was run poorly and too much investment went into arms race. China learned the lesson and focused on economic development before investing in military and very selectively.
as for the DF, YJ, and CF families, the hypersonic models vary in range, speed, propulsion technology, ballistic arcs and maneuveurability. I am sure the underlying technologies have many commonalities such as material science, heat management, guidance systems, jamming resistence, etc. The breakthroughs come from investment in hardware infrastructure like the JF-22 windtunnel I mentioned in the article.
the US dept of war reported China conducted more hypersonic missile tests in the last 10 years than the rest of the world combined. So they have space-based sensors that can track global ballistic launches. I assume the report is accurate.
The challenge is of course no one knows how they perform in battlefields. But few want to find out - especially at the receiving end. Hopefully that is the deterence.
That's a good observation on China learning from the Soviet experience, and putting the horse before the cart on developing their economy. I hadn't considered that.
by the way, very happy to see a military enthusiast among my readers. I follow tech and military closely but only a minority of the readers here do.
💖👍
Huawei CEO: "This NEW EUV Lithography Machine Will Destroy ASML!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0NIhy1V04U
Huawei’s “First Ternary Logic Chip”? Patent Signals a Three-State Computing Breakthrough
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44biw2n4W18
Everybody steals, and that's been consistent throughout human history. What's more relevant is how capable any entity (state, corporate, individual) is to resisting it.