Comparing China and US Critical Future Technology Development

The Australia-based think tank ASPI recently published its 2024 Critical Technology Tracker, an annual analysis of leading scientific and research innovations in future critical technologies across the world.

The report tracks 64 technologies in 8 meta categories ranging from AI, space, defence, quantum, biotech, material science and telecommunications.

It focuses on high impact research, defined as the top 10% most highly cited papers, as a leading indicator of a country’s research performance and potential future S&T capabilities.

I have been following the comparative science and technology development in China and the US for years.

The Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School published a research paper titled The Great Tech Rivalry: China vs. the US in 2021. It was led by Professor Graham Allison, famous for his book Destined for War about the “Thucydides’ Trap” between the two countries.

While the paper was very insightful and highlighted the performance of the two countries in fields ranging from AI, 5G, quantum science, semiconductors, biotech to green energy. It was a one-off effort and cannot provide a trendline of the rivalry over time.

It was also limited to only a comparison between China and the US without any data about other countries.

This is why I have followed ASPI’s annual reports with great interest for several years now. The ongoing research tracks data that date back to 2003. And it keeps its tracking at a granular specific technology level in 8 meta-categories of critical tech. Its coverage is global.

I believe the China-US competition fundamentally will be centered on science and technology, which is the foundational capability for both countries’ long-term economic and military strength.

Mr. Wang Huning is the 4^th highest ranked Chinese official and widely acknowledged as the brain trust for the Chinese leadership in the last 3 decades. He was a professor of Political Science at Fudan University in early 1990s and wrote the famous book America Against America in an analysis of American society after spending 6 months as a visiting scholar in the US in 1988-89.

In his seminal book, Mr. Wang pointed out “to surpass the US, you must surpass them in science and technology”. The rest of the book is very incisive as well and I highly recommend.

His thinking has greatly influenced the Chinese government’s strategy to invest heavily in R&D for long-term economic development. The official lingo of “new quality productive force” captures the concept of leveraging S&T to promote innovation in Chinese economy.

Here I’ll summarize some of the key findings of the ASPI Critical Technology Tracker report for 2024 –

- The report covers 8 key tech categories

o Advanced Information and Communication Technologies

o Advanced Materials and Manufacturing

o AI Technologies

o Biotech, Gene Technologies and Vaccines

o Defence, Space, Robotics and Transportation

o Energy and Environment

o Quantum Technologies

o Sensing, Timing and Navigation

- Within each, specific technologies are tracked. Altogether there are 64 technologies tracked. A few examples -

o Optical communication, undersea wireless communication, high performance computing, mesh and infrastructure independent networks are specific technologies covered in Advanced Information and Communication Tech

o Data analytics, machine learning, AI algorithms and hardware accelerators, natural language processing, adversarial AI are covered in the AI Technologies category

o Aircraft engine, hypersonic detection and tracking, drones/swarming/collaborative robots, space launch systems are covered within Defence, Space, Robotics and Transport category

o Composite materials, coatings, high-spec machining process, nanoscale materials and manufacturing, advanced explosives and energy materials are covered in the Advanced Materials category

- China currently leads in 57 of the 64 technologies in the 5 year period between 2019 and 2023. US leads in 7. There has been a stunning shift of research leadership over the past two decades from the US to China.

o China led 52 of the 64 technologies in the 5 year period between 2018 and 2022 in the 2023 report; it took the lead in 5 more technologies one year later

o US led in 60 of the 64 technologies between 2003 and 2007

o China led in only 3 of the 64 technologies between 2003 and 2007

- The leadership competition for these critical technologies is basically between China and the US. Europe and rest of Asia (Korea, Japan, India, Singapore) play a secondary role. In most fields, the lead China and US have over the rest of the world is massive.

- China leads in all technologies in 3 meta categories – Advanced Information and Communication, Advanced Materials and Manufacturing, Energy and Environment.

- The US leads in several technologies within the other 5 meta categories. The total 7 technologies the US leads are –

o Natural language processing with AI category

o Gen editing, nuclear medicine and radiotherapy, and vaccines and medical countermeasures in Biotech, Gene and Vaccines category

o Small satellites in Defence, Space, Robotics and Transportation category

o Quantum computing in Quantum category. The other Quantum technologies tracked are post-quantum cryptography, quantum communication, and quantum sensors. China leads in these.

o Atomic clocks in the Sensing, Timing and Navigation category

- Very interestingly, ASPI also tracks a special category of technologies called Unique AUKUS Technologies since ASPI is Australian and Australia is part of the AUKUS group.

o China leads in all three technologies in this category: autonomous underwater vehicles, electronic warfare, and air-independent propulsion technology. Obviously these are all in the military domain.

Apart from tracking which country leads in the high-impact research in those critical technologies, ASPI also attempts to measure the risk of countries holding a monopoly in research.

The analysis is based on the share of high-impact research outputs and the number of leading institutions the dominant country has.

The result of the monopoly risk analysis is –

- China is the lead country in everyone one of the technologies classified as “high risk” – meaning China is the only country globally with a “monopoly” in high impact research of any technologies; US may have a lead in certain technologies but does not pose a monopoly risk

- 24 of the 64 technologies are at high risk of Chinese monopoly – meaning Chinese scientists and Chinese institutions are doing an overwhelming share (over 75%) of high impact research in these fields.

- Such high monopoly risk fields include many with defence applications such as radar, advanced aircraft engines, drones/swarming/collaborative robots and satellite positioning and navigation.

ASPI also identifies the institutions that are leading such research work in each country. Here is the result –

- The Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) is by far the world’s largest and highest performing institution in high impact research with a global lead in 31 of 64 technologies

- Other strong Chinese research institutions include Peking University, Tsinghua University, Harbin Institute of Technology, Hong Kong Polytechnic, Beihang, Northwestern Polytechnical University, National University of Defence Technology, Zhejiang University, etc.

- In the US, technology companies, including Google, IBM, Meta, and Microsoft has strong positions in AI, quantum and computing technologies. Other strong performers include NASA, MIT, GeorgiaTech, Carnegie Mellon, Standford University, etc.

The ASPI Critical Tech Tracker report goes into deep dive in each tech categories. There are many fascinating insights. I would strongly encourage people interested in S&T to read the detailed report.

In summary, China has made significant investment in its S&T capabilities over the past several decades. The whole-of-nation strategy has built huge momentum in its innovation capability and has delivered stunning results.

China now leads the world in many of the most important future technologies. The success of its commercial companies in telecommunications (Huawei, Zongxin), EV (BYD, Geely, Great Wall, etc.), battery (CATL, BYD) and Photovoltaics (Tongwei Solar, JA, Aiko, etc.) are directly built on such R&D prowess.

Similarly, the Chinese military’s modernization is built on the massive technological development of the country’s scientific community and its industrial base.

With its lead in science and technology research, China is positioned to outcompete the US in both economic and military arenas in the coming years.

Wang Huning’s foresight about S&T development has been a critical part of the strategic blueprint for the country’s rejuvenation.