In ten years, the US won’t even pretend it can go to war with China
Latest Lot 17 F-35s don’t have “eyes” (the radars)
I have written many times why China will prevail in any kinetic war with the US and its vassals near Chinese shores.
I have based my conclusion on the overwhelming physical advantages China has over the US and its clients.
The physical advantages are expanding every day in every military field.
Though the US still leads in a few areas (such as the quantity of nuclear warheads and its submarine force), in every warfighting domain, China is progressing faster than the US.
The data and facts I use for my analysis are official open-source ones that appear in government military reports and no-nonsense think-tank documents.
Of course, the information on paper doesn’t necessarily always reflect reality on the ground. And the reality on the ground seems even worse for the US.
Judging Chinese military strength is intrinsically difficult since Beijing has not been exercised force for nearly half a century. Its military technology has been deployed in tests and drills, not in battlefields.
The situation is the opposite with the US who goes to war as regularly as an alcoholic visits the local watering hole, self-claimed “peace” president or not.
There is a wealth of public information to draw on to compare the on-paper capabilities for the US with its on-ground realities.
Two recent events are revealing.
The first is the ongoing standoff with Iran. While Trump is acting as a belligerent beaver in heat for a war, his generals seem to be begging for caution.
US media reported Air Force general Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, has warned the US is not equipped to engage in a prolonged conflict with Iran. By prolonged, he meant more than a few weeks.
Part of the risk is the lack of sufficient ammunitions like missiles and air defense interceptors to sustain a high intensity conflict.
The US and Israel cannot fend off Iran’s retaliations on US bases in the Middle East or the Jew “homeland” (more accurately, occupied colonial settlement).
Cost is another concern. Bloomberg reported the US spent $3 billion to assemble the carriers, ships, and jets to threaten Venezuela for an operation that ended up as history’s most expensive kidnapping.
Venezuela didn’t even shoot back.
A war with Iran, which involves Iran shooting back, will easily cost tens, maybe hundreds, of billions.
People usually confuse posturing with capability. But there is a reason why the US has not dared to attack Iran despite the chest-pounding. It has nothing to do with giving diplomacy a last chance.
Has anyone noticed why the US has consistently picked the poorest and weakest countries in the world to fight with? Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, and Venezuela.
It’s because none of them can fight back.
Iran is a different story. It won’t win a war with the US but it will fight back and can hurt the US. Same goes for North Korea. Let alone China and Russia.
The US is not sure of its chances with Iran, which has suffered from decades of crippling sanctions and deep infiltration by Mossad and Western saboteurs.
To go to with China, which is orders of magnitude stronger, is inviting defeat and humiliation. And Pentagon knows it.
That’s why Trump is going to Beijing in April to bend the knee to President Xi.
The second piece of news is even more telling and helpful to understand the reality of US military strength from a purely technical level.
The bizarre news begs the question whether the old, tired hegemon even possesses the military power it supposedly has on paper.
Reports have come out that the US air force and navy are taking delivery of the latest F-35 Lightening II with ballast (metal weight plates) in its nose cone instead of radars.
Starting from Lot 17 in 2025, the new production batches of F-35s are built with a mounting structure in the nose section for an updated radar – the AN/APG-85 – in a transition to Block 4 upgrade.
However, Lockheed Martin, the plane’s maker, cannot build the radar because China has imposed export ban on gallium, a critical mineral that China owns 95% global market share.
Without access to gallium, Lockheed cannot make the Gallium Nitride (GaN) semiconductor for the upgraded APG-85 phased array radar.
Lockheed estimates the new radar won’t be ready until Lot 20 (around 2030). That’s provided they can figure out where to get gallium first, of course.
To add insult to injury, Lockheed found out it cannot even bolt the old GaAs radar onto the new mount in the jet’s nose cone.
So instead of radar, 5 slabs of metal are put in place to avoid the plane’s center of gravity from flipping over. The Lot 17 F-35s are delivered without radar.
A fighter jet without radar is basically as a blind bird without a brain, since it has zero situation awareness and cannot even launch a guided missile.
Within military circle, the Lot 17 F-35s are now being charitably called a “stealth glider”.
The Pentagon’s justification for accepting radar-less jets is that they can still be used for “training”.
Leaked images and reports from Defense Daily suggest the ballast used in ground tests resembled standard 45lb gym weight plates stacked in the nose cone, making the Lot 17 F-35 the butt of aviation jokes.
In the 1960s, Chairman Mao famously called the US a “paper tiger”. Of course, that was a hyperbole but his “paper tiger” comment seems to have found the literal “smoking gun” in 2026.
The “paper tiger” is caught with gym weight for radar and waiting for a “nose job” to enter service in some unknown future date. Pun intended.
This is the ultimate shitshow from the feared US military industrial complex since we are not talking about some obscure new weapon no one cares about.
With F-35, we are talking about the most expensive weapon program in human history – over $2 trillion. The F-35 is supposed to be the crown jewel of the US military.
The US is counting on it for air superiority for the rest of the 21st century. To justify the cost, the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has assigned a lifespan of 94 years to the program till 2088.
For context, 94 years ago, the primary military equipment for the world’s leading armies was bolt-action rifles. I’m sure F-35 will retain its “air superiority” till I am 117 years old:-)
To understand the $2 trillion price tag, you need to know China’s total cumulative military spending since 2012, the year President Xi took over, is $2.9 trillion.
China’s $2.9 trillion military budget has paid for 13 years of history’s fastest military modernization and the sustainment of the world’s largest standing army at the same time.
The budget has financed the development and production of two 5th generation Chinese fighters – the J-20 and J-35, the equivalent to US F-22 and F-35.
It has financed the development and testing of the world’s first 6th generation fighters – 2 of them: the Chengdu J-36 and the Shenyang J-50.
It has funded 3 aircraft carriers, two dozen Type-055 destroyers (the most powerful surface combatant in service anywhere), dozens of nuclear and diesel submarines, 5 amphibious assault ships, over a dozen hypersonic missile types, sensing satellites, synthetic aperture radars, GaN AESA radars (deployed on jets, ships, missiles, and tanks), combat robots, more models of UAVs and UUVs than other militaries combined, and the list goes on.
Finally, the blind and brainless F-35 is hardly an isolated incident. There are more examples showing on-paper US military strength is not matched by on-ground reality.
Check out some photos of the rusty fighter jets and warships proudly in US military services. These vessels looked as if they should be renamed USS Tetanus.
“We have become the worst-looking Navy in the world — with no competition,” said longtime naval journalist and commentator Chris Cavas.
The last photo was taken by Cavas showing the destroyer USS James Williams with skid marks of running rust as it pulled into Naval Station Mayport, Florida, in February 2025.
Contrast these worn-down war machines with the shiny new $400 million White House Ballroom.
The US military is an old bully stumbling around the world.
It sure can intimidate and hurt little Venezuela. They do have a lot more ships and jets, rusty and radar-less they may be.
The aging bully, like a former heavy weight champion boxer, wins the fight with a 6th grader with little suspense. He doesn’t even have to deliver his nastiest right hook.
Maybe the old boxer doesn’t have to bring his best game with medium weight Iran either. Though his knees seem to be buckling and his hand shaking a bit.
But if the old bully goes into a fight with a peer heavyweight in prime, he will be pummeled and missing some teeth.
Going to war with the blind F-35s and the rusty warships with China, the US will be dead meat.
Hence, my conclusion – in 10 years, the US won’t even pretend it can go to war with China.
I tend to agree with the article but would like to put forward some counter arguments.
The strongest arm of the US Empire is nowadays the media-culture-academy-internet-Hollywood conglomerate, and it is prevalent everywhere outside China’s Great Firewall and Best Korea. This and the reverse Flynn effect are more powerful than a nuclear triad.
The inertia of the current system is so great that, excepting some catastrophic blunder, the US Empire might limp along for several more decades. Plenty of historic examples to compare….
The Perfidious Anglo-Gringo-Zionistas are still by far the best at infiltration, subversion and such underhanded fuckeries. They are succeeding right now in Venezuela, Colombia and Cuba. I wouldn’t discard at all the possibility that they can still achieve major wins in this field, e.g. by convincing enough Russian Oligarchs to force the country into at least an Empire-friendly status.
Another big strong point is their ability to execute Salami-slice strategies. Next domino to fall in South America could be Peru, in that case the Chinese could kiss the Chancay port goodbye. The Perfidious Ones could -eventually- roll back existing Chinese influence in the whole continent and this could also apply to a large part of Africa, this time with the help of their preferred lackeys Morocco, Saudi, UAE and Turkey.
This is all to say that the military aspect is only one factor in the equation and that if the Chinese do choose to “sit on the edge of the river and watch the corpse of the enemy float by” (not actively bringing the US down), we could still have to endure decades of WASP fuckery.
Surprised no one has mentioned the USS Gerald Ford yet. Shitshow would be an understatement... there's even talk that the demoralized and disgruntled sailors were stuffing t-shirts and mop tops into the sewage system to foul it up even more to stop yet another extension of their deployment. They have been out at sea for almost a year... that's how overstretched the US military is ...
2 top generals have resigned or been fired from the military Joint Chiefs of Staff in the past couple of months, as they finally said truth to power (aka told Trump that going against Iran was a bad idea).
Trump has really painted himself into a corner with Iran... but hey, anything to distract from the Epstein files... or whatever else Israel has on him. That's a different kind of shitshow, with many other blogs speculating on that, so we don't need to do it here.