The Myth of India Becoming the Next China

Another delusion divorced from reality and history

Karl Marx described India as a civilization without a history.

The statement was not a denial of India’s ancient existence or cultural achievements. Rather, it reflected his historical-materialist analysis of social development, particularly in the context of economic dynamism and class struggle.

In his 1853 article “The Future Results of British Rule in India”, Marx wrote: “Indian society has no history at all, at least no known history. What we call its history, is but the history of the successive intruders who founded their empires on the passive basis of that unresisting and unchanging society.”

This was not a claim that India lacked a past or civilization, but that its social structure—based on village communities and caste—appeared stagnant and resistant to internal change, especially in contrast to the dynamic class struggles that Marx saw as driving historical progress in Europe.

Marx viewed India’s pre-colonial society as economically static, lacking the internal contradictions (like feudalism vs. bourgeoisie) that, in his theory, propel historical change.

Marx’s views were hardly unique among historians, many of whom view India as a civilization without a history from an anthropological perspective.

Unlike other ancient civilizations such as Greece, China, Egypt or Mesopotamia where history has long been recorded in detailed, linear chronological writings, Indian history lacks written documentation and is largely transmitted orally, often blending facts with fiction and mythology.

In addition, India has historically been a geographic concept, rather than a nation state. The land was occupied by a myriad of native communal villages, tribes, and maharajahs, fragmented by hundreds of languages and an equal number of religions.

Over time, the land known as India was ruled in succession by foreign invaders such as Aryans, Persians, Tokharians, Mongols, Afghanis, Muslims, and the British.

They ruled through the Kuru Kingdom, Achaemenid Empire, Kushan Empire, Mughal Empire, Lodi Dynasty, and the British Raj.

Long term foreign colonial rule has deprived the natives off the spirit of resistance. Coupled with the Hindu religious belief of reincarnation, and the Caste system which mandates a person’s fate is tied to the social hierarchy of his birth, a cultural identity of acceptance of one’s destiny is forged.

This passive acceptance culminated in Gandhi’s quest for independence through the “non-cooperation” movement in the 1940s.

India’s path to sovereignty and independence is completely different from the Chinese, who fought against foreign invaders for over 100 years through two Opium Wars (1830s through 1860s), the first Sino-Japanese War (1894 – 1895), and the second Sino-Japanese War (1931 – 1945).

China’s path was one of violent revolution and trial by fire, with sacrifices of millions of lives. The quest to overcome the Century of Humiliation has forged a will of steel and an indomitable fighting spirit for both the ruling Communist Party and the general population.

As the West steps up its effort to contain China, it has actively recruited India to the cause and attempted to prop up India as a replacement for China, both as a manufacturing base and as a market.

After a decade-old effort through QUAD, US India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and renaming Asia Pacific to Indo-Pacific (much like the newly minted Gulf of USA and Department of War - which are keys to recover national greatness), how far has India gone to achieve such a goal? Will it ever reach the “potential” promoted by western propaganda?

Here is an incomplete scorecard –

- GDP in 2024 reached $3.9 trillion, compared with China’s $19 trillion

- GDP per capita at $2,800, vs. China’s $13,800. For context, Indian GDP per capita is roughly the same as Angola and Cambodia, lower than Venezuela ($3,100), 65% of Vietnam, 50% of Indonesia

- Merchandise export at $400 billion, compared with China’s $3.5 trillion

- Manufacturing as % of GDP at 13%, compared with 27% in China. The Indian government published the Made in India plan, in 2011, with a goal to achieve 25% manufacturing GDP by 2025. It actually declined from 15% in 2011 to 13% by 2024

- India’s share in global manufacturing value added (MVA) is 2.8% in 2024 against 35% for China

- While India has failed to industrialize, pollution in the country has reached the top of global scoreboards. According to The Hindu newspaper, 6 of the top 10 most polluted cities in the world are in India, including New Delhi

- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) declined in 2024 over 2023, despite foreign investors looking for alternatives to China due to the trade war

- Many top global manufacturers have decided to pass from producing in India due to corruption, bureaucracy, bad infrastructure, and lack of skilled workers. This includes Tesla, Fiat, Philips, GM, and Xiaomi

- India is heavily dependent on Chinese supply chains for electronics, solar, automotive, and pharmaceutical industries

- India has one of the world’s highest tariff and non-tariff trade barriers and has a well-earned reputation of being “the graveyard for multinationals”

Anyone who has been to India and China will tell you the difference between the two countries in infrastructure, standard of living, and basic hygiene/cleanness.

No need to consult statistics books, just look around.

With a manufacturing sector that is less than one tenth of China and GDP per capita lower than half of African countries, any talk about India replacing China as either a production base or a consumer market is pure fantasy.

And the gap is widening, not narrowing, in infrastructure, education, productivity, government efficiency, and overall preparedness for industries of the future such as AI, robotics, space, and life science.

Geopolitically, India has acted as a fence-sitter since its independence – maintaining a close relationship with Russia while flirting with the west.

Its main claim to fame is loyalty to none –

- India depends on oil and weapons from Russia, but Modi refused to attend the May 8 Moscow parade and stand by Putin, afraid of offending the US and Europe;

- It signed a comprehensive strategic partnership deal with Iran a few months before the Iran Israel conflict, but refused to denounce Israel’s attack and attempted to block a joint declaration by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO);

- India has a hostile policy towards Muslims and openly supports Israel’s genocide in Gaza, but also tries to win favors with the Gulf states for investment and employment (lots of Indian labourers in the Middle East);

- India is a member of BRICS and SCO but consistently plays an obstructionist role in de-dollarization, admission of new members, and collective stand on global issues (such as the Iran Israel conflict and the US aggression against Cuba and Venezuela);

- India’s effort to win the West’s affection hit a wall when Trump imposed 50% tariff for its purchase of Russian energy and openly derided India as “not important”. Washington has realized India is not an asset in containing China, but another free loader riding on its coattail.

In short, India doesn’t possess either the economic power or the geopolitical decisiveness to be a major player. It has no real friends. Every one of its neighbors hate it.

Much of India’s dilemma stems from its mentality and national psyche, which is a mix of self-perceived superiority and down-trodden reality.

The deficiency of the Indian mindset is on full display when it lost the brief air war with Pakistan in May but insisted to celebrate the defeat as unqualified success in front of the world.

A term has been coined – “Bharat Triumphalogy” – to describe this strange mentality centered around the celebration of self-deception.

In many ways, India is a pre-modern, semi-primitive society with deeply embedded backwardness in its culture and religion.

The Hindu caste system preordains individuals into rigid social strata that perpetuates inequality and fundamentally hinders progress and mobility.

In the caste system, Indians display slavish obedience to those in the higher caste and absolute contempt to those in the lower caste.

They are told to settle for their assigned life station, marry within their own caste, and pray for a better deal in the next life. Meritocracy is an alien concept, so is progress.

Hinduism believes in the circular life – reincarnation and after life. In this worldview, suffering and degradation in this life is due to one’s own failure in the past life; injustice in this life must be tolerated in hope of “winning” in the next life.

As discussed earlier, there was no written history for the Indian civilization. Instead, stories have been passed down the generations orally in a mix of facts and fantasy.

Failures and defeat are not part of the package. The Indians always prevail. Despite repeated conquest by foreigners in its long history, there is no equivalent of China’s Century of Humiliation to motivate the Indians to strive for rejuvenation.

After all, they have always won in their version of history. The India Pakistan air war, known in India as Operation Sindoor, will no doubt be recorded as another “win” in the official chronicle for posterity.

Modi sent 7 “victory delegations” to share its “success” with over 40 foreign governments and declared a 10-day national celebrations.

Such self-deception goes beyond military defeats. In May, the IMF published a forecast predicting the Indian economy could overtake Japan by 2026/2027. On May 27, 2025, Modi called for national celebration and announced to the world “India is the world’s 4^th largest economy” in bold letters.

Such “popping champaign ahead of time” for an economic forecast may seem bizarre to the rest of the world. But for India, this is the manifestation of the “winner mentality”.

Similarly, Indians celebrate their joining various “clubs”, a term much abused by the hyperbolic Indian media – the “nuclear weapon club”, the “space power club”, the “supersonic missile club”, on and on.

Too bad, it is still denied admission to the ultimate “club” – the Permanent Security Members of the United Nations. A national shame no doubt.

With no common language or shared history, the “Bharat Triumphalogy” is the glue holding the fragmented country together.

In the end, “India as replacement for China” is just another farce that is fed to the Indians and devoured eagerly by a desperate west that either doesn’t know better or is equally delusional.