What message is China sending during the September 3 Beijing military parade

The unveiled high-tech weapon systems are not just about hardware

The biggest news out of China in the past month is the military parade held in Beijing on September 3^rd to celebrate the defeat of the Japanese during WW2.

President Xi Jinping was joined by President Putin and Kim Jong Un as well as the heads of state from Indonesia, Malaysia, Iran, Vietnam, Belarus, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, etc.

President Xi gave a short speech, but the real talking was done by the weapons on display at the parade.

And the message is loud and clear, in a language that the West, especially the US, can understand. The message is that China is ready to counter western provocation and bullying with force, more brute than what the west can come up with.

As the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have shown, raw force is the only message that can penetrate through the thick skulls of the ignorant and the arrogant western ruling elite.

As my regular readers know, I follow Chinese military technology closely and have written about some of the high-tech weapons Beijing has developed from drones, missiles to fighter jets.

Even for someone who prides himself for following mil tech development for over 2 decades, I am dumbfounded by the number and the technical sophistication of the newly unveiled weapons.

Like other Chinese military enthusiasts, I haven’t even heard of half the weapons on display.

Most importantly, Beijing has announced these weapon systems are in service today, not prototypes or concepts. For example, the aerial parade didn’t feature the two six generation fighter jets (J-36 and J-50) that have caused tremendous interest in military circles since they were first observed in December 2024.

What this means is that the high-tech weapons from hypersonic missiles to extra large unmanned underwater vehicles (XLUUV) are already deployed for active duty and will be used if a kinetic war breaks out now. China is ready to define future warfare.

Weapons unveiled

An incomplete list of the more noteworthy weapons includes:

- 4 new hypersonic and supersonic anti-ship missiles: YJ-15, YJ-17, YJ-19, YJ-20. YJ-17 is the ship- and air-launched version of the famous DF-17 land-based “waverider” hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) missile that deploys a scram-jet engine and reaches Mach 10 cruising speed. DF-17 was the world’s first deployed HGV missile and is widely considered impossible to intercept

- 6 new unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), including three tailless full-stealth models; all 6 are expected to serve alongside manned fighter jets as AI-powered loyal wingmen. In comparison, the US has yet to field its first collaborate combat aircraft (CCA) despite having announced such a plan years ago

- 5 model of 5^th generation fighters: J-20, J-20S, J-20A, J-35, and J-35A compared with the 4 models in service in the US today (F-22, F-35A, F-35B, F-35C)

- 2 XLUUVs: HSU100, AXJ002 super-sized unmanned submarines for deep sea surveillance, patrol, and attack. Comparisons are made with the Russian Poseidon system

- Assorted unmanned weapons from unmanned battle tanks, drones, robotic dogs, to unmanned surface combat ships and submarine-hunting helicopters

- 3 directed energy weapons (DEWs): LY-01 shipborne air defense laser, a truck-mounted laser weapon against drones and missiles, and a microwave weapon system against drone swarms

- 3 layered air defense systems: HQ-9B, HQ-19, and HQ-29. HQ-29 is a long-range anti-ballistic missile and anti-satellite interceptor weapon with an intercept altitude of up to 1500 km into space

- 4^th generation main battle tank: Type 100 with uncrewed gun turret, full anti-drone capabilities, and equipped with gallium nitride (GaN) AESA radars, the most advanced radar technology in the world

- China also showcased its “nuclear triad” for the first time with the air-launched JL-1, submarine-launched JL-3, road-mobile DF-61 and DF-31BJ, and silo-based DF-5C ICBM. These nuclear ballistic missiles can cover the entirety of continental US

Interesting, many of China’s superstar weapons displayed in the last military parade in 2019 to celebrate the 70^th anniversary of the founding of PRC were absent from the Sept 3 parade.

These include the DF-21D, DF-27 hypersonic ballistic missiles, CJ-100 hypersonic cruise missile, DF-41 ICBM, GJ-11 UCAV drone, the WZ and CH series of UAVs, and YJ-21 ship-launched hypersonic “carrier killer” missile.

The fact that none of them made an encore shows the rapid progress in weapon system upgrades.

Key takeaways from military and technical perspectives

- China is accelerating its mil-tech leads in hypersonic, stealth, unmanned systems, and related fields. And it is experimenting with a variety of combinations of such technologies in the air, sea, land and undersea domains (very likely also in space)

- The underlying core technologies that cut through all kill chains include material science, communication technologies, radar system, AI, robotics and more. China is investing heavily in all these areas (both for civilian and military purposes) and leading in most fields (see my article on ASPI key future technology index) https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/comparing-china-and-us-critical-future

- Such technological advances are serving as the common chassis for weapon development for different domains and mission types. The parade put some of the latest innovations on display. It’s likely more are still classified and will be fielded in the future

- China already has a large lead in missile technology, especially in the hypersonic field. Numerous hypersonic models are already deployed that can neutralize enemy carrier groups and military bases within the second island chain. These hypersonic weapons are exceptionally difficult to defend against. Combining hypersonic tech with the new stealth and unmanned aerial, naval, and space attack platforms will be game changing in the battlefield

- China has a proven track record of fast product iterations, low-cost prototyping, deep manufacturing capacity, and scale-based low unit cost mass production. This is both in the civilian sector and in the military domain. When the country’s state-owned military industrial base is mobilized, Chinese military can overwhelm any adversaries with vast quantitative and qualitative advantages

- In contrast, the military industrial complex in the US is privately owned. Its primary goal is profit maximization, not winning wars. This leads to an approach to weapon system development featuring long dev cycle, limited capacity (high return on assets), high unit cost (cost plus pricing), small production batch, and high operating and maintenance costs (called life-time value)

Beijing’s message to the US

The show of force at the military parade is aimed at both the US military and its political leadership. Several messages are clear:

- China has developed a multi-layered, redundant kill web designed to deny access to its shores. If the US intervenes in a conflict around Taiwan or in the South China Sea, China has the arsenal to deliver massive blows to its naval and air assets not just along the first island chain (Japan and the Philippines) but beyond the second island chain (Guam)

- China’s air and naval warfare technology is at par or superior to what the US can field. It is also innovating at a faster pace. China’s industrial might means it can vastly outproduce the US if war breaks out. The days of US prosecuting a war against an inferiorly equipped opponent are over

- Beijing is capable of the same level of nuclear deterrence against the US as Russia. Despite having a far smaller nuclear arsenal and a “no first strike” policy, China has enough secondary strike capability to deliver mutually assured destruction (MAD). As a result, China is invulnerable to nuclear blackmail and can move up the escalation ladder as needed

- There is no safety for the US homeland. A main reason of US military adventurism has been its geography. The US ruling elite and the population has never had to pay for its aggression due to its vast distance from most theaters of war that it has provoked. China has demonstrated such immunity is over with its ability to conduct long-range conventional and nuclear strike on US homeland if the US wages a war against Chinese homeland. When a bully is vulnerable to being hit back, its behavior is likely to become more reasonable

Dispel western propaganda myths

After the military parade, western media and commentators have tried to put up a brave face. Immediately, you can find many “coping” narratives emerge from the collective West. Such sore-grape deflections are sugarcoated as “objective analysis” that are transparent myths:

- War experience: this is one of the most often repeated deflections. The argument goes as this – since China hasn’t fought a war since 1979, its military force has no experience and therefore an easy match for the US.

Let’s put away what the statement says about the peaceful rise of China versus the constant militarism of the US and just focus on the logic.

First, the US’s extensive war experiences since Vietnam are against inferior and often impoverished enemies such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Grenada, Syria, Libya and Yemen, hardly peer level opponents.

Secondly, the US track records against such “worthy” foes are hardly stellar. Just a few months ago the US had to sue for peace after being humiliated repeatedly by the Yemen Houthis on the battlefield. We don’t even have to talk about Afghanistan and the Taliban.

Thirdly, the US war doctrines and war fighting experiences have primarily geared toward fighting insurgencies for the past 2 decades. Its muscle memory is in fact a liability when fighting a high-end high-intensity war with a peer military power.

Lastly, when the Chinese military fights near its shores, it is to protect the homeland against a faraway intruder. The US military is fighting to uphold its hegemony and global dominance which has hardly benefited any of the fighting soldiers who are mere mercenaries. It is easy to reason who will have higher morale and greater willingness to sacrifice

- Untested weapons: this is another common refrain. While indeed most of China’s arsenal has not been used in wars, they are tested in both labs and military drills like any other equipment. The underlying technology and technical specs are what they are.

As the Indians found out a few months ago in the brief war with Pakistan, the “untested” Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 air-to-air missiles were quite capable to taking out its vaulted, “experienced”, and very expensive Rafale jets.

Similarly, only a few years ago, Elon Musk was openly ridiculing BYD cars. Today, BYD doesn’t just make better cars than Telsa but outsells it globally. China’s space station Tiangong will still be in space when the ISS is retired in a few years; China’s Beidou satellite navigation system is more accurate than GPS and harder to jam; and China has landed a lunar probe on the far side of the moon – a first for space explorations.

If these Chinese technologies work to spec, why would one assume Chinese weapons don’t?

- Alliances and coalition: the argument goes that the US has alliance partners and can get them to fight China with it.

Indeed, the US has an entourage of vassals and clients (let’s drop the pretense those are US “partners”, even the US regime doesn’t pretend any more). However, it is one thing for these vassals to join the US against weak countries that cannot fight back; it’s quite another for them to participate in a war that will see their own countries attacked in retaliation.

In all honesty, how many countries look at Ukraine and say I want my country to look like that?

The most belligerent US “partners” these days are Japan, the Philippines, and the other members of the “5 eyes” Anglo sphere. Japan and the Philippines are easily within reach of Chinese missile salvos and will be flattened if they join in a war.

And the Chinese will take a lot of pleasure in destroying them, especially Japan. If Britain joins in, it’s even better and time for China to payback for the Opium Wars.

Frankly, I doubt these countries are suicidal enough to follow the US into a war with China when certain destruction is the outcome.

- Confronting China is a bi-partisan consensus among US political elite. This is not a myth but the question is so what? Would a bi-partisan consensus somehow increase its chance of defeating China? Would a bi-partisan consensus intercept a hypersonic missile aimed at a US carrier group?

Don’t forget it is the national consensus of 1.4 billion Chinese that China will not be pushed around by any imperial bully ever again. We are willing to pay whatever price to reunite Taiwan and protect our sovereignty. Let’s find out whose will is stronger and whose hard power is stronger

If the US finds itself in a hot war with China, it’s virtually assured it will suffer a debilitating defeat and a casualty level unseen since Vietnam war. The US empire will be finished.

The Sept 3 military parade is a loud and clear message that although it doesn’t want war, China is ready for war. When all is said and done, the strong will prevail.