Iran’s predicament is largely a result of its own folly
Follow up on Revolution is not a dinner party
I received many thoughtful reader comments for the essay Revolution is not a dinner party. I thought it worthwhile to share some additional perspectives on why I think Iran’s crisis is at least partly a result of its own mistakes and poor judgement. I will also attempt to speculate, hopefully intelligently, what China’s position would be in the evolving situation.
For brevity, I’ll divide the piece into three parts: Iran’s folly; Iran’s poor judgement, especially about India; and why Iran has not earned more support from China.
As events move at lightening pace, any predictive analysis run the risk of falling flatly on the face so I’ll try to stick with themes independent of the ebb and flow of hourly breaking news.
A few caveats to start with –
- No need to debate right or wrong here. No doubt that Israel’s war is a criminal violation of international law and a continuation of its vile record of criminality since the state’s inception. If you disagree, don’t read the rest
- I offer no prediction about the outcome of the conflict. My opinion is this would be a lose-lose war that neither side could claim unqualified success. If US steps into the fight directly, Iran is likely to incur an outright defeat, possibly regime change; if not, Israel would hurt more in a protracted conflict, given its far smaller size and population, and there is a risk of Israeli nuclear use
- I have no intent to blame the victim. I want to examine the deficiencies in Iranian strategic thinking, internal unity, and geopolitical judgement as I see them.
The focus of this follow up pieces are –
- Iran’s missteps in the Middle East turmoil since Oct 2023
- Internal contradictions in Iran has resulted in a weakened state
- Iran’s poor geopolitical judgement and choices, especially with regard to India (in part 2)
- China’s likely position based on its views on alliances, Iran’s strategic value, and geopolitical priorities (in part 3)
Iran’s missteps since Operation Al-Aqsa Flood
The Axis of Resistance, led by Iran, had a rare window of opportunity to inflict severe damage to Israel in the middle of 2024. Around this time last year, Israel was facing threats from Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, the Iraqi militia, Syria and Iran simultaneously – Netanyahu openly talked about a potential 7 front war.
At the time, the Israeli army was exhausted from the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon; internal Israeli frictions were running high with public disagreements between Netanyahu and his generals; the IDF morale was low from large scale mobilization; Hezbollah and Syria were still intact; global outrage of IDF’s indiscriminate slaughter of civilians was at a peak; ICC and ICJ were calling for prosecution of Israeli war crimes; Biden had real disagreements with Netanyahu and Israeli policies despite the continued military support; the Axis of Resistance enjoyed a relatively strong military position, compared with now, to defeat Israel on the battlefield.
Critically, it was also riding on a wave of global support before Gaza fatigue settled in and the world moved on to the next news cycle.
However, Iran completely missed the window of opportunity to rally the Axis of Resistance and execute a crushing defeat on Israel. Instead, it dragged its feet in face of repeated Israeli provocations and attacks, sometimes waiting months before retaliating.
Meanwhile, Israel regrouped and executed shocking reversals – targeted killing of numerous Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, beeper attack on Hezbollah, relentless bombing of Lebanon, repeated attacks on Iran homeland and its diplomatic outposts, overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria (credit to Turkey), and possibly the assassination of the hardline Iranian President Raisi. Israel did all above with only half-hearted Iranian retaliations.
The much touted “hundreds of thousands” rockets and missiles the Hezbollah supposedly possessed didn’t rain down on Israel. Apart from the brave and valorous Houthis, the Axis of Resistance failed to do much at all to confront Israel and deter the Palestine genocide.
In fact, there were barely any actions besides some empty rhetorics from Tehran to support the Palestinians. Even the cynical back-stabbing Turkish Sultan Erdoğan had more fiery rhetorics for the Jews on the genocide (and of course, in the true self-serving Erdogan fashion, without lifting a finger to do anything substantial, like cutting off Israel’s oil supplies).
As a result, Isreal neutralized much of the Axis of Resistance while Iran largely stood by while its allies were decimated. As time goes on and the Jews work their dark magic in the west, even protests against the genocide were repressed and died down.
In front of the world, Iran returned a few rounds of timid “proportional” retaliatory attacks and even gave advanced warnings to avoid any “misunderstanding” and “civilian casualties”.
After Raisi’s death, Iran elected a “liberal”, “moderate” president (basically representing the west-leaning faction) who sounded tougher than his acts.
Iran was clearly trying to leave some space to get back into the good grace of the US. It bent backwards to placate the US to restart nuclear negotiations for loosening the sanctions noose.
Iran took up Trump’s dishonest offer of a nuclear settlement talk, seemingly having forgot it was the same Trump who ordered the assassination of General Soleimani and who is totally in the pocket of the Jews. Iran was naively hoping it could get away with some dial back on nuclear enrichment, rather than a full stop, in exchange for sanctions relief.
As I laid out in the earlier essay, unlike North Korea, in essence Iran has been using its nuclear program as a leverage to extract concessions on sanctions rather than a national goal for survival.
It has hovered around the nuclear threshold without clearing it. Instead of outsmarting the US, it foolishly stepped into the trap Trump laid with the bad-faith fake negotiations and suffered the blow of Israel’s sneak attacks.
Regardless how much people despise Israeli and US treachery, Iran made itself vulnerable with its bluffing and strategic naivety.
Internal frictions and a weak state
The repeated success of Mossad operations inside Iran must force even the most sympathetic observers face the reality that the Iranian society is fragmented, fully infiltrated by Jewish and western agents, and lacks any cohesion and national unity.
Iran’s political system is riddled with dualities: secular presidency and religious theology, Revolutionary Guards and national army, Azerbaijanian Muslim clergy and Persian majority, religious fundamentalists and western-leaning “liberals”.
These dualities are not reconcilable and structurally institutionalize internal divisions.
The ruling elite in Iran is rent seeking and fight ruthless internal battles for the spoils. The corruption has fostered deep-rooted popular resentment and grass root dissatisfaction.
Four oligarchic families have ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution. The Khamenei family, the Soleimani family, the Rafsanjani family, and the Khomeini family have monopolized energy, construction, infrastructure, telcom, pharmaceutical, and banking industries for decades. The ruling Khamenei family is rumored to be worth some $300 billion.
The palace intrigues, corruption, and infighting have severely weakened state power.
The net result is a deeply divided society prone to Jewish and western infiltration and their well-practiced playbook of “divide and rule”. No society without internal unity can withstand external attacks from powerful and ruthless enemies. In a crisis, the fault lines are fracturing and may well be irreparable.
In stark contrast, Israel has proven to be a far more cohesive and ruthless foe. The population has rallied around the genocide flag with many Jews advocating even harsher repressions of the Palestinians. There is little dissent on ethnic cleansing, bombing hospitals, or starving war refugees.
The Israelis may complain about being drafted from their regular jobs but few have grounds to be upset with IDF senior officers’ corruption.
In a societal contest of grit and unity, Iran can hardly match Israel.
(to be continued)
"The Axis of Resistance, led by Iran, had a rare window of opportunity to inflict severe damage to Israel in the middle of 2024".
At which time, determined and resolute action was called for to take advantage of Israel's weakness.
And at precisely which time (19th May 2024) President Ebrahim Raisi, who was known for those qualities, mysteriously died when his helicopter crashed for no apparent reason. To be replaced by the elderly and irresolute Masoud Pezeshkian.
The *sub-official discourse*, which of course does not remotely coincide with world public opinion, is that Israel, following October 7, had an effectively unlimited right to defend itself—minus the potential use of nuclear weapons. After the destruction of most of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the fall of the Assad regime, the question inevitably became: would Iran be next? And if so, would the U.S., especially under Trump, directly participate?
The only thing really holding Trump back at this point is U.S. public opinion. But aside from that, the pattern has clearly been one of Israeli escalation following October 7. I think it would be fascinating to delve into the manifold epistemic complexities—or, should one say, mysteries—of October 7 itself. In other words, the fly-on-the-wall historical verity of Hamas’ discussions leading up to that fateful day. Ditto, to be sure, for the Israeli side.
For example, what does the combined "general staff" of the West think most likely happened on the Israeli side vis-à-vis October 7? Otherwise put, if I had been an Israeli tank commander successfully retreating from the Gaza border following Hamas’ breakout, I would, I think, in short order begin to doubt my own superiors—ipso facto, given the conditions and context of that particular stage in the Netanyahu regime. And every day following that I would think: so this is the *soi-disant* brilliant Götterdämmerung which Israel devised in order to pass into history as another epochal stage in Western conquest and empire-building.
It was "inevitable" that the indigenous would attack, thereby allowing for their practical—but also morally *pro forma*—annihilation. After this period of conquest concludes, then Russia and China remain, after which the West will have achieved the much-vaunted "post-history"—interrupted by the Cold War, following which the West became more united, not less, under the maximalist dialectic of the summit of anti-fascism fascism.
To wit: Israel has a maximalist right to defend itself, and the worst wrong and aggression conceivable in the West—but perforce applicable to the entire world—is "antisemitism."