"The Axis of Resistance, led by Iran, had a rare window of opportunity to inflict severe damage to Israel in the middle of 2024".
At which time, determined and resolute action was called for to take advantage of Israel's weakness.
And at precisely which time (19th May 2024) President Ebrahim Raisi, who was known for those qualities, mysteriously died when his helicopter crashed for no apparent reason. To be replaced by the elderly and irresolute Masoud Pezeshkian.
The *sub-official discourse*, which of course does not remotely coincide with world public opinion, is that Israel, following October 7, had an effectively unlimited right to defend itself—minus the potential use of nuclear weapons. After the destruction of most of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the fall of the Assad regime, the question inevitably became: would Iran be next? And if so, would the U.S., especially under Trump, directly participate?
The only thing really holding Trump back at this point is U.S. public opinion. But aside from that, the pattern has clearly been one of Israeli escalation following October 7. I think it would be fascinating to delve into the manifold epistemic complexities—or, should one say, mysteries—of October 7 itself. In other words, the fly-on-the-wall historical verity of Hamas’ discussions leading up to that fateful day. Ditto, to be sure, for the Israeli side.
For example, what does the combined "general staff" of the West think most likely happened on the Israeli side vis-à-vis October 7? Otherwise put, if I had been an Israeli tank commander successfully retreating from the Gaza border following Hamas’ breakout, I would, I think, in short order begin to doubt my own superiors—ipso facto, given the conditions and context of that particular stage in the Netanyahu regime. And every day following that I would think: so this is the *soi-disant* brilliant Götterdämmerung which Israel devised in order to pass into history as another epochal stage in Western conquest and empire-building.
It was "inevitable" that the indigenous would attack, thereby allowing for their practical—but also morally *pro forma*—annihilation. After this period of conquest concludes, then Russia and China remain, after which the West will have achieved the much-vaunted "post-history"—interrupted by the Cold War, following which the West became more united, not less, under the maximalist dialectic of the summit of anti-fascism fascism.
To wit: Israel has a maximalist right to defend itself, and the worst wrong and aggression conceivable in the West—but perforce applicable to the entire world—is "antisemitism."
the jewish state is never encumbered by public opinion or morality. its domestic population is overwhelmingly aligned with its genocidal maniac policy and it has the backing of the "democratic" "value-based" west. Of course, it has long coopted the western ruling elites. you have to take the hat off to a parasite that has managed to totally take control of the host , make the host welcome it with full heart, and gag any antibody too. it has to be the most successful parasite the world has ever seen.
as for the Al Aqsa operation and Israel's real role in it, we'll need to wait for future historians to uncover the truth - if such historians are not first labelled and punished as "anti-semitic". Interestingly, within Israel, there were a lot of doubters about the government account of what happend that night, including Jonathan Pollard, the "biggest spy in US history" working for Mossad and a bona fide jewish hero. there are video clips on Youtube where you can watch him raising doubts about another false flag, hardly a surprise for anyone who knows about Israel's history.
Thanks for this perspective, Hua Bin. One factor that may come into play is that many countries -- even countries that are favorable to Iran -- would prefer that Iran not have nuclear weapons. Think of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, probably several Euro countries, Russia, maybe even China. Iran is different from North Korea, because NK is not under the leadership of a group waiting for the 12th Imam to trigger Armageddon. What some of those countries may do (and not do) behind the scenes may be quite different from what they say publicly.
On the other hand, I find it difficult to believe that Iran does not already have nuclear weapons. We have been hearing about Iran's nuclear program for decades -- yet the US built nuclear weapons from a standing start in about 3 years, at a time when no-one even knew for sure that the theory would work, much of the technology did not exist, and the US simultaneously had to fight WWII. Even South Africa under apartheid sanctions managed to build a nuclear weapon. Maybe Iran's nuclear program is like Colonel Ghaddafi's -- just a talking point for negotiations?
I agree. Russia and China never supported North Korea to get the bomb. Nuclear proliferation is not a good idea except the state under threat itself. Iran's motivation is understandable but its approach is indecisive and eventually made itself vulnerable.
i don't think Iran actually has a bomb. even the US intelligence verifies that and I don't see any reason for them to hide the fact if true. I think Iran used nuclear threshold strategy as a bargaining chip but its bluff was called.
Iran is a big country, so it could hide the real McCoy somewhere while showing empty hands where nukes are expected.
Remember, Iran has successfully used decoys so far, not only in the swarms of drones but also for its air defenses. Apparently, a lot what "israel" bombed on 13 June were in effect decoys – not all, I agree.
I wouldn't write off Iran just yet. If the US get directly involved they are going to take a lot more hits than with the Iraq war. Still I hope they stay out of direct involvement.
agree it is too early to say for sure. I doubt Iran would prevail if the US gets involved directly. I would not be surprised if it seeks truce and agrees to US demands to disarm in that scenario.
Looking forward to part 3. I agree that China will not get deeply involved with Iran. But nothing says they can't supply Iran with loans and supplies, allowing for a long war of attrition that will exhaust the USA. Russia can provide satellite data, more loans and military equipment.
As I wrote in my previous comment, Russia and China don't want Iran to fall under USA control, but letting Iran suffer without dying would be perfectly acceptable to Russia and China.
Also, a breakup of Iran is not necessarily a bad thing for Russia or China. Independent Kurdistan might join with Kurdish Iraq and then stir up a civil war in Kurdish areas of east Turkiye, which Russia would like because this weakens Turkiye. Independent South Azerbaijan would not be dangerous to Russia or remnants Iran. As long as remnant Iran controls an Indian Ocean port, which both Russia and China want, independent Baluchistan is no problem. In the process of breakup, possibly remnant Iran could clean up internal problems besides ethnic/religious/language divisions.
I also lean towards your point that Russia and China would have the same cold-eyed analysis as you laid out. Involving the US in another protracted middle eastern conflict is a win for both, though I doubt Iran can hold out for long if the US goes in directly. I highly doubt the US would want to put boots on the ground. Instead it could just disarm Iran and instigate a regime change. Russia and China don't have the ability to stop that, given they both lack power projection in the middle east and have higher geopolitical and military priorities.
> Instead it could just disarm Iran and instigate a regime change.
That's a long shot, does the U.S. have the wherewithal? I doubt it. The U.S. is working hard at turning itself into a toothless tiger, it even got run out of town, in this case the Red Sea, by the Houthis. Iran is no Yemen.
"Iran was clearly trying to leave some space to get back into the good grace of the US".
Now that really is a symptom of insanity. As Kissinger is said to have warned, while being an enemy of the USA can be painful, being its friend is fatal.
Why would Iran want to get back into the good graces of the killer anaconda?
Because the sanctions ARE hurting. What Iran should have done is "a Russia". By that I mean develop new relationships politically, commercially, technologically and in terms of supply lines. It has done that to some extent with Russia and China, but that is not enough, and in any case it is not smart to only rely on those 2.
Yes, I know, sitting in my armchair setting out the sanctions busting strategy for Iran is easy.
Russia and China not overtly jumping in to help Iran might have something to do with a strategem to bait Jewry to getting tied up ever-deeper in the Iranian quagmire while simultaneously providing covert assistance... just maybe. Since one of the hallmarks of Jewry is their psychopathic rage coupled with irrational vindictiveness which has assuredly led themselves to overreach.
As in, "never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake" as per Sun Tzu's strategem.
I suspect there is some element of cold-eyed strategy to benefit from Israeli/US overreach and another potential forever war. That said, in reality Russia and China don't have the power projection in the middle east to intervene militarily even if they are so inclined. Also both have other geopolitical and economic priorities of their own.
China has also placed severe export restrictions on rare earth minerals and antimony to the west, stuff needed for weapons manufacturing. This gives China a very potent leverage that effectively equates to a moratorium on warfare. Let's see how this impacts the western MICs as they run critically low on rare earths.
Iran is part of BRICs+ and a major source of China's energy independence. The take down of Iran is the start of the domino of the take down of BRICs+ and China. Is China still living in the past like the Ming and Qing and waiting for new gunboats to sail up the Yangtze and Yellow rivers?
this is not true. domino effect is an overblown theory from Vietnam to Iraq, Libya and Syria. Did those "dominos" affect the world in the long run? If you think, if China doesn't intervene in Iran, western powers would somehow be able to overwhelm China, then you are sadly mistaken. In a face down between China and the US/west, Iran is inconsequential. If gunboats come to China now, you think they won't go to the bottom of the ocean just because Iran is taken off the board? think twice.
no offense but you are overly emotional about the subject. My objective is to have a rational discourse and take lessons from Iran's mistakes. I'll discuss why Iran's fate is not all that important in the grand scheme of things in my view.
The law of very large numbers say if the West are given unlimited attempts, they will be successful eventually. China must win the struggle for this law. Iran's survival gives China the edge in this struggle because it gives provide China 3 things: energy for China's economy, a distraction for the West, and new allies.
China will do what it can to help Iran, no doubt. As you laid out, Iran's defeat is not good news for China. I could be wrong here but I am less concerned about the military implications - the US will lose to China in a war in western pacific whether it defeats Iran or not. It's a contest of hard strengths and China has never counted on others to fight its war and is prepared to take on its enemies in whatever geopolitical situation. It is reckless to have your strategic freedom dictated by the performance of a political partner like Iran. finally, Iran has not been fully aligned and reliable with China and shouldn't expect China to bail it out. I'll get into that subject in my next essay.
China's future depends on Iran's survival, because it'll show others China can provide protection from the West. If Iran falls, China will only be an amateur 'go' players.
If China has not been preparing for America's direct involvement in Iran then it'll never escape the century of shame. We'll see if Chinese ADAs are ready to keep America's airpower in check in Iran because Russia is too occupied with Ukraine. I foresee waves of Chinese planes entering Eastern Iran with military aid to prevent America's direct involvement.
I don't agree with the proposition China's future depends on the survival of a weak theological state with half its population wanting to be part of the west. Maybe you know something I don't. But Iran is hardly a pillar for the new world order. There is a typical western thinking about ganging up to win which China doesn't subscribe to. No offence, but you read too much into Zbig's chessboard theories. I'll share my thoughts on China's perspective.
It's not about Iran. It's about the West's ability to impose its will. It's about the proxies the West are lining up to engage China. It's about dividing the West's resources to focus on China. Iran plays a part in this. As the West pointed out, it's better the contest takes place away from one's border than on one's border. Once it happens on the border it's took late because it'll escalate to nuclear war.
China will deal with the west on its own. If you want to be a big boy, you need to fight like a big boy. weak states like Iran is a liability, not an asset in a final showdown. you don't think Chinese and Russian strategists have thought through this already? as for where to fight, if China goes to the Middle East in Iran's assistance, it's an overreach as China doesn't have the power projection ability realistically. If the west comes to China to fight, then the overreach is on their side. I assure you China will take care of business around its shores, with or without Iran surviving the current crisis.
Fighting on China's borders will result in damages to China and the risk of going nuclear is greater than in Iran. If a Chinese city is attack, China will need to retaliate on mainland US. The back and forth will likely escalate to a nuclear war. A contest in Iran will not reach that level, and it'll deter other proxies like Isreal from joining the West. Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, S. Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are just waiting time bombs. India is waiting for an opportunity to take a bite also.
The law of very large numbers points to Iran as the better theater for China than in Asia. Logistically, China can out supply the West in the Middle East since the countries between Iran and China are friendly. The rail network gives China the edge. It plays to China's economic might.
A contest around China's border will damage China's economy since the main economic centers are on the coast. These centers will be targeted by the West's proxies just like Ukraine did in Russia. China can't retaliate against the US if they didn't pull the trigger. The law of very large numbers goes to the West in this scenario. It's like the British against the Qing. They can keep on attacking China without consequences.
Valid points, even though "after the fact" analysis is always 20/20. Following your logic, should not China and Russia actively assist Iran? China knows that an Iranian "defeat", i.e. the Syria or Lybia scenario would be catastrophic to China's interests.
The success of the G7 is security guarantee. If BRICs+ doesn't offer this, it will fail because countries seek ultimately protection. Economic ties alone will not be enough to ensure China's sovereignty. A country will ally with countries that offers economic and security protection. Without allies China will be worn down and torn apart.
Technology has reach a stage where manpower is not the deciding factor of a war. As we see in Ukraine, Russia's industries are the main factor for it's success. Manpower can be replaced with proxies as the West employed. There are 6+ billions proxies for the West if China fails to draw them into it's orbit. The destruction of Iran will force countries around the world to hesitate in aligning with China. The survival of Iran is the tipping point for BRICs+.
BRICS is not and cannot be a security bloc, period. Can you see China and Pakistan in a collective security bloc with India, which has always been a fence sitter and more and more pro-west and pro-Israel. Can you see Brazil, South Africa, UAE or Indonesia wanting to be on the opposite side of the US and the west in an opposing military camp. while China and Russia don't want to see Iran's fall, it's a pitfall to overblow Iran's strategic value. neither country will conflate despise for Israel/US with commitment to save Iran.
BRICs+ is the opening to a security block. Without a security block to build on, BRICs+ will be destroyed militarily with divide and conquer. We see in Saudi Arabia's refusal to complete it's membership. We see in Argentina's withdrawal of it's application. The destruction of Iran may see countries withdrawing from BRICs+, and the containment of China's future.
A challenging analysis. Time will tell if you are correct. Undoubtedly, the attacks on Iranian personnel indicate issues, but the stunning achievements in missilery despite brutal sanctions over decades, suggests an incredibly resilient core.
On balance, I think the Iranians will prevail.
Your assessment of Israeli resilience is overly generous. The ethno supremacist racist genocidal have never really faced the Mike Tyson test. ‘Everyone has a plan until they get smacked in the face’.
In my experience bullies always squeal and retreat before collapsing.
Nothing excuses the fact that like Ukraine the USA has provoked, aided and abetted this war. Trump is the most dangerous man on earth as the infant adult he is, putty in the hands of his controllers. The most pertinent issue now is where is the countervail leadership to stop Trump in his tracks. China and Russia are both going to have to play a heavy hand to insure Iran wins this war. Trump and his thugs are desperate and we can be sure the nuclear option is on the table. A decisive victory for Iran may finally convince Washington its empire is dead in the water.
I see Trump as a distraction, like all US Presidents. For those actually calling the shots, he is a public relations disaster due to his limited intelligence and proclivity to text/speak without thinking. That's why the deep state bureaucracy dislikes him. However, the simp has zero agency. JFK may have been the last US President trying to assert himself against the three-letter-spook bureaucracy.
Selected for: Pliability, gullibility, salesmanship, poise, ego, greed, lack of scruples, ethics or morals and, if possible, vulnerability for blackmail. Trump lacks some of these but he was grudgingly accepted for the "job".
no doubt Trump is treacherous and not to be trusted - this should be the most obvious thing under the sun.
however, I don't think China or Russia will pick this fight as the final show-down with the US. What is really important is for them to win the final battle in best possible position (ie. near their own borders). what's happening in Iran is transcient. even if Iran's regime is toppled, does that mean the US and Israel will be occupying the country? will there be a puppet government? I wouldn't bet on that - look at Iraq, Libya, Syria. Just another forever war bleeding US resources. this would be a victory for the jews, but not for the US. China only needs to ensure it wins the final battle with the US and this is hardly it.
Hasn't the Islamic Republic always been in a lose-lose situation? Externally, It had no well armed friends that could fight side by side and the most well armed and dedicated enemies. Internally, it has a divided population and a rebellious population of Kurds and Sunnis who probably provided the assistance to Mossad. Iran had a foreign policy that respected the sovereignty of other nations and could have served to limit Israel's expansion, brought stability to the Middle East, and prevented the debacle in Afghanistan. Iran was doomed to fail and the world helped Iran to fail. The Islamic Republic and thousands of years of Persian life will be vanquished and the world will suffer for the failure to protect Iran.
i think the Persian civilization will continue even if the state, as it is, fragments. the internal division is probably too deep at this point to salvage a coherent country out of it.
You are correct. The evil forces arrayed against Iran and its few small allies were/are massive. It fought a good fight.
An important point. Forgive me if someone else made it already. Iran is in this position because it chose morality. In other words, the nation made a statement of principle on a moral issue, and lived by it, and is now dying by it. True martyrdom.
I am referring to the fact that Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon. The official Iranian statement is that nuclear weapons are inappropriate for humans to create and possess.
I'm generally inclined to dismiss official statements out of hand, as the gaslit rubbish they are 99.999% of the time. But in this case, the narrative rings true. Iran has had nuclear technology for generations. Obviously, if they wanted nuclear weapons, they would have them. Equally as obvious, when you have nuclear weapons, you are left alone, feared if not respected. And obviously, Iranian leadership has always known and understood all of this. None of what Iran has endured and will endure had to happen, except that Iran chose moral principle over materialistic pragmatism. Again, the way of the true martyr. The satanic world may scoff and mock them. I don't.
If tomorrow Cyrus' whip falls from the heavens onto the heads of the fake hebrews, in the form of a many megaton tipped hypersonic, and Tel Aviv gets glassy, then I take back the above comment.
SUPERB, Hua Bin. Very good analysis. Totally agree. It's been so obvious, but I didn't know many of the key details you shared. Thank you. Looking forward to your next post.
That said, I have this to say about Kevin Barrett's EXTRAORDINARILY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS. IMO, THE SINGLE BEST COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS BEING DELIVERED.
My 2 cents (Cat): China and Russia are wisely sitting back and taking their cues from how the Jews ran WWI and WWII -- Let the goyim duke it out and slaughter themselves and then post-WWII reconstitut their neo Russian and neo Tao-Confucionist selves. Be done with an evil neo Talmudic NWO. Poor Gaza but Russia and China need to fully protect their sovereignty and geoeconomic base so that they can smoothly seque post-WWIII into a kinder, gentler, wiser, neo Tao-Confucianist NWO for We The World.
with the enablement and public support by the US regime, its master-slave hybrid partner in crimes (untangling the bastardly and incestual relationship of the two fascistic states will take more energy than anyone wants to expend, so I’ll leave it at that).
You really don't know Mr. Bin who is the tail and who is the dog? You are ignorant of who are the masters and who are the puppets of American politics? You are ignorant of international banking? You are ignorant of international blackmail, bribery, murder and terrorism schemes? Jeff Epstein? Aipac? Does the phrase Nuremberg regime mean anything to you?
But I know you do know of all these things. So your statement above is quite bizarre.
Allow me to make the point, unequivocally. The United States, and all of Western Civilization for that matter, is a wholly owned subsidiary of the synagogue of Satan. The state of Israel is the symbolic seat of power of this entity. The power it wields is not merely symbolic. The United States, in its current form, exists to serve the interests of this entity. Not the other way around. Your analysis will always miss the mark if you are unable to maintain clarity on this fundamental reality. Although this describes a spiritual reality, the geopolitical one flows from it.
Iran is the last significant state power on the planet that is morally, which is to say spiritually, opposed to the synagogue of Satan and its antihuman machinations. This is why it is targeted for destruction, and has been for decades. Otherwise you are mostly correct. Iran is weak, as any nation should be that has been under siege for decades. Iran is isolated. Its allies have been crushed. Russia and China will remain spectators to the ongoing disassembly, now in its final stages. Russia is already largely captured by the synagogue. Not to the extent of the West, but it's compromised. It will do nothing. And China is eager only to grow fat and rich. It stands with its finger in the wind. It isn't going to engage in any crusade.
Iran had a good run. But in this world, dark spiritual forces win. This is the true history of planet earth. It will remain this way until God renews creation with the return of his son. Until then, things are going to get a lot darker, and a lot more painful, especially for those of us who choose, like Iran, to resist the machinations of Satan.
the history of the jewish state is complex and not clean cut. as the beginning, the european states, mainly britain, wanted a colonial outpost as a spear in the important region. of course, there was the influence from rothchilds and zionist financiers, the brits and later americans thought they were the chess player and israel was the pawn. over time, the relationship changed as the parasite overtakes the host and now the reverse is true. hence, my contention it is an incestuous master/slave relationship that's hard to fully untangle. your points are certainly right regarding the current state of affairs.
From my perspective the United States has been under firm synagogue of Satan control for more than a century. If the United States were a nation independent of synagogue control, the fake Hebrew colonists wouldn't have any land conquest projects going on in the Middle East at all. These are of zero interest for U.S. citizens. It is all expense, risk and harm with no upside. Untangling the history of all of the crimes and intrigues that go on behind the scenes that enable the synagogue to gain and maintain control of the hosts that it parasitizes would take tremendous time and energy. Like what Whitney Webb did with One Nation Under Blackmail. That is a two volume work and it only scratches the surface. But recognizing who is host and who is parasite is quite straightforward. Only the most deluded and or neo of neophyte political observers remains unclear about this.
I only make the point because I see a lot of limited hangout alternative media dissemblers pushing the narrative that the U.S. is using Israel as its proxy. It is the U.S. that wants to destroy Iran, and it uses Israel to do it, they say. This is a lie that is meant to continue to obscure the fundamental problem of zog. Iran is of as much importance and significance to any average American citizen as the price of tea in China. It is utterly irrelevant. It is only because of the synagogue and its fake Hebrew colonist antihuman schemes that the average American knows Iran exists.
I cannot agree more even if I don't think about those things in biblical or religious terms. I suspect you are also right about the theological context.
I certainly think the US ruling elites are in the pocket of the judeo-Nazis that control finance, media, tech and the war machine. Webb's two volumes (I am only half way into the first one though they have been on my bookshelf for almost two years) are an encyclopedia of deep state crimes and links to drug trade, money laundering, sex trafficking, arms sales to death squad. Even that just scratches the surface.
From Peter Dale Scott and Alfred McCoy to Gary Webb and Aaron Good, reports on jewish/US state crimes literally fill bookshelves, at least in my study.
I see the Israel and US relationship as parasite host relationship. Parasite will eventually kill the host after sucking its blood dry. The pace is probably accelerating because the parasite knows the end is near - hence its hastened attack on Iran. If Israel waits longer, the US might have lost in a war with China and becomes so weakened it would lose all value to the parasite. Better to use the host for one last feast before it collapses.
I don't have an answer how the righteous can rid the world of the parasite and virus. A solution may be considered too unspeakable in the west. And frankly, China doesn't see this as its war, just like the war in Iran is not its war. If you cannot eradicate the parasite, at least keep it out.
I'll continue to write about the toxic jewish influence in my essays, hopefully based on facts and history. I hope the world is advised but of course our efforts will always be modest and humble.
Right. I appreciate whatever few small voices there are out there that have the fortitude to confess any important truth, geopolitical or otherwise. So I am glad to have your analysis while it is allowed to last. It is clear that our owners don't intend to allow venues like this to continue to operate.
"The Axis of Resistance, led by Iran, had a rare window of opportunity to inflict severe damage to Israel in the middle of 2024".
At which time, determined and resolute action was called for to take advantage of Israel's weakness.
And at precisely which time (19th May 2024) President Ebrahim Raisi, who was known for those qualities, mysteriously died when his helicopter crashed for no apparent reason. To be replaced by the elderly and irresolute Masoud Pezeshkian.
The *sub-official discourse*, which of course does not remotely coincide with world public opinion, is that Israel, following October 7, had an effectively unlimited right to defend itself—minus the potential use of nuclear weapons. After the destruction of most of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the fall of the Assad regime, the question inevitably became: would Iran be next? And if so, would the U.S., especially under Trump, directly participate?
The only thing really holding Trump back at this point is U.S. public opinion. But aside from that, the pattern has clearly been one of Israeli escalation following October 7. I think it would be fascinating to delve into the manifold epistemic complexities—or, should one say, mysteries—of October 7 itself. In other words, the fly-on-the-wall historical verity of Hamas’ discussions leading up to that fateful day. Ditto, to be sure, for the Israeli side.
For example, what does the combined "general staff" of the West think most likely happened on the Israeli side vis-à-vis October 7? Otherwise put, if I had been an Israeli tank commander successfully retreating from the Gaza border following Hamas’ breakout, I would, I think, in short order begin to doubt my own superiors—ipso facto, given the conditions and context of that particular stage in the Netanyahu regime. And every day following that I would think: so this is the *soi-disant* brilliant Götterdämmerung which Israel devised in order to pass into history as another epochal stage in Western conquest and empire-building.
It was "inevitable" that the indigenous would attack, thereby allowing for their practical—but also morally *pro forma*—annihilation. After this period of conquest concludes, then Russia and China remain, after which the West will have achieved the much-vaunted "post-history"—interrupted by the Cold War, following which the West became more united, not less, under the maximalist dialectic of the summit of anti-fascism fascism.
To wit: Israel has a maximalist right to defend itself, and the worst wrong and aggression conceivable in the West—but perforce applicable to the entire world—is "antisemitism."
the jewish state is never encumbered by public opinion or morality. its domestic population is overwhelmingly aligned with its genocidal maniac policy and it has the backing of the "democratic" "value-based" west. Of course, it has long coopted the western ruling elites. you have to take the hat off to a parasite that has managed to totally take control of the host , make the host welcome it with full heart, and gag any antibody too. it has to be the most successful parasite the world has ever seen.
as for the Al Aqsa operation and Israel's real role in it, we'll need to wait for future historians to uncover the truth - if such historians are not first labelled and punished as "anti-semitic". Interestingly, within Israel, there were a lot of doubters about the government account of what happend that night, including Jonathan Pollard, the "biggest spy in US history" working for Mossad and a bona fide jewish hero. there are video clips on Youtube where you can watch him raising doubts about another false flag, hardly a surprise for anyone who knows about Israel's history.
Yes. The parasite is empowered and guided by a supernatural force. Hence its success.
There is a greater power that men could avail themselves of, than that of the parasite. But they choose to despise the Truth, and suffer accordingly.
amen to that
Thanks for this perspective, Hua Bin. One factor that may come into play is that many countries -- even countries that are favorable to Iran -- would prefer that Iran not have nuclear weapons. Think of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, probably several Euro countries, Russia, maybe even China. Iran is different from North Korea, because NK is not under the leadership of a group waiting for the 12th Imam to trigger Armageddon. What some of those countries may do (and not do) behind the scenes may be quite different from what they say publicly.
On the other hand, I find it difficult to believe that Iran does not already have nuclear weapons. We have been hearing about Iran's nuclear program for decades -- yet the US built nuclear weapons from a standing start in about 3 years, at a time when no-one even knew for sure that the theory would work, much of the technology did not exist, and the US simultaneously had to fight WWII. Even South Africa under apartheid sanctions managed to build a nuclear weapon. Maybe Iran's nuclear program is like Colonel Ghaddafi's -- just a talking point for negotiations?
I agree. Russia and China never supported North Korea to get the bomb. Nuclear proliferation is not a good idea except the state under threat itself. Iran's motivation is understandable but its approach is indecisive and eventually made itself vulnerable.
i don't think Iran actually has a bomb. even the US intelligence verifies that and I don't see any reason for them to hide the fact if true. I think Iran used nuclear threshold strategy as a bargaining chip but its bluff was called.
Iran is a big country, so it could hide the real McCoy somewhere while showing empty hands where nukes are expected.
Remember, Iran has successfully used decoys so far, not only in the swarms of drones but also for its air defenses. Apparently, a lot what "israel" bombed on 13 June were in effect decoys – not all, I agree.
I wouldn't write off Iran just yet. If the US get directly involved they are going to take a lot more hits than with the Iraq war. Still I hope they stay out of direct involvement.
agree it is too early to say for sure. I doubt Iran would prevail if the US gets involved directly. I would not be surprised if it seeks truce and agrees to US demands to disarm in that scenario.
Looking forward to part 3. I agree that China will not get deeply involved with Iran. But nothing says they can't supply Iran with loans and supplies, allowing for a long war of attrition that will exhaust the USA. Russia can provide satellite data, more loans and military equipment.
As I wrote in my previous comment, Russia and China don't want Iran to fall under USA control, but letting Iran suffer without dying would be perfectly acceptable to Russia and China.
Also, a breakup of Iran is not necessarily a bad thing for Russia or China. Independent Kurdistan might join with Kurdish Iraq and then stir up a civil war in Kurdish areas of east Turkiye, which Russia would like because this weakens Turkiye. Independent South Azerbaijan would not be dangerous to Russia or remnants Iran. As long as remnant Iran controls an Indian Ocean port, which both Russia and China want, independent Baluchistan is no problem. In the process of breakup, possibly remnant Iran could clean up internal problems besides ethnic/religious/language divisions.
I also lean towards your point that Russia and China would have the same cold-eyed analysis as you laid out. Involving the US in another protracted middle eastern conflict is a win for both, though I doubt Iran can hold out for long if the US goes in directly. I highly doubt the US would want to put boots on the ground. Instead it could just disarm Iran and instigate a regime change. Russia and China don't have the ability to stop that, given they both lack power projection in the middle east and have higher geopolitical and military priorities.
> Instead it could just disarm Iran and instigate a regime change.
That's a long shot, does the U.S. have the wherewithal? I doubt it. The U.S. is working hard at turning itself into a toothless tiger, it even got run out of town, in this case the Red Sea, by the Houthis. Iran is no Yemen.
"Iran was clearly trying to leave some space to get back into the good grace of the US".
Now that really is a symptom of insanity. As Kissinger is said to have warned, while being an enemy of the USA can be painful, being its friend is fatal.
Why would Iran want to get back into the good graces of the killer anaconda?
my very point of its lack of acumen and good judgement.
Because the sanctions ARE hurting. What Iran should have done is "a Russia". By that I mean develop new relationships politically, commercially, technologically and in terms of supply lines. It has done that to some extent with Russia and China, but that is not enough, and in any case it is not smart to only rely on those 2.
Yes, I know, sitting in my armchair setting out the sanctions busting strategy for Iran is easy.
Russia and China not overtly jumping in to help Iran might have something to do with a strategem to bait Jewry to getting tied up ever-deeper in the Iranian quagmire while simultaneously providing covert assistance... just maybe. Since one of the hallmarks of Jewry is their psychopathic rage coupled with irrational vindictiveness which has assuredly led themselves to overreach.
As in, "never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake" as per Sun Tzu's strategem.
I suspect there is some element of cold-eyed strategy to benefit from Israeli/US overreach and another potential forever war. That said, in reality Russia and China don't have the power projection in the middle east to intervene militarily even if they are so inclined. Also both have other geopolitical and economic priorities of their own.
China has also placed severe export restrictions on rare earth minerals and antimony to the west, stuff needed for weapons manufacturing. This gives China a very potent leverage that effectively equates to a moratorium on warfare. Let's see how this impacts the western MICs as they run critically low on rare earths.
Iran is part of BRICs+ and a major source of China's energy independence. The take down of Iran is the start of the domino of the take down of BRICs+ and China. Is China still living in the past like the Ming and Qing and waiting for new gunboats to sail up the Yangtze and Yellow rivers?
this is not true. domino effect is an overblown theory from Vietnam to Iraq, Libya and Syria. Did those "dominos" affect the world in the long run? If you think, if China doesn't intervene in Iran, western powers would somehow be able to overwhelm China, then you are sadly mistaken. In a face down between China and the US/west, Iran is inconsequential. If gunboats come to China now, you think they won't go to the bottom of the ocean just because Iran is taken off the board? think twice.
no offense but you are overly emotional about the subject. My objective is to have a rational discourse and take lessons from Iran's mistakes. I'll discuss why Iran's fate is not all that important in the grand scheme of things in my view.
The law of very large numbers say if the West are given unlimited attempts, they will be successful eventually. China must win the struggle for this law. Iran's survival gives China the edge in this struggle because it gives provide China 3 things: energy for China's economy, a distraction for the West, and new allies.
China will do what it can to help Iran, no doubt. As you laid out, Iran's defeat is not good news for China. I could be wrong here but I am less concerned about the military implications - the US will lose to China in a war in western pacific whether it defeats Iran or not. It's a contest of hard strengths and China has never counted on others to fight its war and is prepared to take on its enemies in whatever geopolitical situation. It is reckless to have your strategic freedom dictated by the performance of a political partner like Iran. finally, Iran has not been fully aligned and reliable with China and shouldn't expect China to bail it out. I'll get into that subject in my next essay.
You don't take into account the hydrocarbons Iran supplies China with. China's growth depends a lot on them I have read.
The way things are going, Iran will end up fragmented, Libya-style, which will be a victory for the US and Israel.
agree. it is likely to seek a truce and bend the knee, however righteous people hate the outcome.
For the moment the fragmenting is done by "israel" which cannot fight back in any meaningful way.
China's future depends on Iran's survival, because it'll show others China can provide protection from the West. If Iran falls, China will only be an amateur 'go' players.
If China has not been preparing for America's direct involvement in Iran then it'll never escape the century of shame. We'll see if Chinese ADAs are ready to keep America's airpower in check in Iran because Russia is too occupied with Ukraine. I foresee waves of Chinese planes entering Eastern Iran with military aid to prevent America's direct involvement.
I don't agree with the proposition China's future depends on the survival of a weak theological state with half its population wanting to be part of the west. Maybe you know something I don't. But Iran is hardly a pillar for the new world order. There is a typical western thinking about ganging up to win which China doesn't subscribe to. No offence, but you read too much into Zbig's chessboard theories. I'll share my thoughts on China's perspective.
It's not about Iran. It's about the West's ability to impose its will. It's about the proxies the West are lining up to engage China. It's about dividing the West's resources to focus on China. Iran plays a part in this. As the West pointed out, it's better the contest takes place away from one's border than on one's border. Once it happens on the border it's took late because it'll escalate to nuclear war.
China will deal with the west on its own. If you want to be a big boy, you need to fight like a big boy. weak states like Iran is a liability, not an asset in a final showdown. you don't think Chinese and Russian strategists have thought through this already? as for where to fight, if China goes to the Middle East in Iran's assistance, it's an overreach as China doesn't have the power projection ability realistically. If the west comes to China to fight, then the overreach is on their side. I assure you China will take care of business around its shores, with or without Iran surviving the current crisis.
Fighting on China's borders will result in damages to China and the risk of going nuclear is greater than in Iran. If a Chinese city is attack, China will need to retaliate on mainland US. The back and forth will likely escalate to a nuclear war. A contest in Iran will not reach that level, and it'll deter other proxies like Isreal from joining the West. Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, S. Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are just waiting time bombs. India is waiting for an opportunity to take a bite also.
The law of very large numbers points to Iran as the better theater for China than in Asia. Logistically, China can out supply the West in the Middle East since the countries between Iran and China are friendly. The rail network gives China the edge. It plays to China's economic might.
A contest around China's border will damage China's economy since the main economic centers are on the coast. These centers will be targeted by the West's proxies just like Ukraine did in Russia. China can't retaliate against the US if they didn't pull the trigger. The law of very large numbers goes to the West in this scenario. It's like the British against the Qing. They can keep on attacking China without consequences.
You may be correct; lots of ethnic groups who might seize the opportunity to gain their own salvation.
Valid points, even though "after the fact" analysis is always 20/20. Following your logic, should not China and Russia actively assist Iran? China knows that an Iranian "defeat", i.e. the Syria or Lybia scenario would be catastrophic to China's interests.
I don't share your view on the impact for China. I'll explain why in the part 3.
no 20/20 hindsight - the fact I didn't write about the matter earlier doesn't mean I didn't feel this way from the start.
The success of the G7 is security guarantee. If BRICs+ doesn't offer this, it will fail because countries seek ultimately protection. Economic ties alone will not be enough to ensure China's sovereignty. A country will ally with countries that offers economic and security protection. Without allies China will be worn down and torn apart.
Technology has reach a stage where manpower is not the deciding factor of a war. As we see in Ukraine, Russia's industries are the main factor for it's success. Manpower can be replaced with proxies as the West employed. There are 6+ billions proxies for the West if China fails to draw them into it's orbit. The destruction of Iran will force countries around the world to hesitate in aligning with China. The survival of Iran is the tipping point for BRICs+.
BRICS is not and cannot be a security bloc, period. Can you see China and Pakistan in a collective security bloc with India, which has always been a fence sitter and more and more pro-west and pro-Israel. Can you see Brazil, South Africa, UAE or Indonesia wanting to be on the opposite side of the US and the west in an opposing military camp. while China and Russia don't want to see Iran's fall, it's a pitfall to overblow Iran's strategic value. neither country will conflate despise for Israel/US with commitment to save Iran.
BRICs+ is the opening to a security block. Without a security block to build on, BRICs+ will be destroyed militarily with divide and conquer. We see in Saudi Arabia's refusal to complete it's membership. We see in Argentina's withdrawal of it's application. The destruction of Iran may see countries withdrawing from BRICs+, and the containment of China's future.
A challenging analysis. Time will tell if you are correct. Undoubtedly, the attacks on Iranian personnel indicate issues, but the stunning achievements in missilery despite brutal sanctions over decades, suggests an incredibly resilient core.
On balance, I think the Iranians will prevail.
Your assessment of Israeli resilience is overly generous. The ethno supremacist racist genocidal have never really faced the Mike Tyson test. ‘Everyone has a plan until they get smacked in the face’.
In my experience bullies always squeal and retreat before collapsing.
Nothing excuses the fact that like Ukraine the USA has provoked, aided and abetted this war. Trump is the most dangerous man on earth as the infant adult he is, putty in the hands of his controllers. The most pertinent issue now is where is the countervail leadership to stop Trump in his tracks. China and Russia are both going to have to play a heavy hand to insure Iran wins this war. Trump and his thugs are desperate and we can be sure the nuclear option is on the table. A decisive victory for Iran may finally convince Washington its empire is dead in the water.
I see Trump as a distraction, like all US Presidents. For those actually calling the shots, he is a public relations disaster due to his limited intelligence and proclivity to text/speak without thinking. That's why the deep state bureaucracy dislikes him. However, the simp has zero agency. JFK may have been the last US President trying to assert himself against the three-letter-spook bureaucracy.
...and they took him out for that. the empire took a truly dark turn after that and has never recovered.
“Presidents are selected, not elected”. — FDR
Selected for: Pliability, gullibility, salesmanship, poise, ego, greed, lack of scruples, ethics or morals and, if possible, vulnerability for blackmail. Trump lacks some of these but he was grudgingly accepted for the "job".
no doubt Trump is treacherous and not to be trusted - this should be the most obvious thing under the sun.
however, I don't think China or Russia will pick this fight as the final show-down with the US. What is really important is for them to win the final battle in best possible position (ie. near their own borders). what's happening in Iran is transcient. even if Iran's regime is toppled, does that mean the US and Israel will be occupying the country? will there be a puppet government? I wouldn't bet on that - look at Iraq, Libya, Syria. Just another forever war bleeding US resources. this would be a victory for the jews, but not for the US. China only needs to ensure it wins the final battle with the US and this is hardly it.
Hasn't the Islamic Republic always been in a lose-lose situation? Externally, It had no well armed friends that could fight side by side and the most well armed and dedicated enemies. Internally, it has a divided population and a rebellious population of Kurds and Sunnis who probably provided the assistance to Mossad. Iran had a foreign policy that respected the sovereignty of other nations and could have served to limit Israel's expansion, brought stability to the Middle East, and prevented the debacle in Afghanistan. Iran was doomed to fail and the world helped Iran to fail. The Islamic Republic and thousands of years of Persian life will be vanquished and the world will suffer for the failure to protect Iran.
i think the Persian civilization will continue even if the state, as it is, fragments. the internal division is probably too deep at this point to salvage a coherent country out of it.
You are correct. The evil forces arrayed against Iran and its few small allies were/are massive. It fought a good fight.
An important point. Forgive me if someone else made it already. Iran is in this position because it chose morality. In other words, the nation made a statement of principle on a moral issue, and lived by it, and is now dying by it. True martyrdom.
I am referring to the fact that Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon. The official Iranian statement is that nuclear weapons are inappropriate for humans to create and possess.
I'm generally inclined to dismiss official statements out of hand, as the gaslit rubbish they are 99.999% of the time. But in this case, the narrative rings true. Iran has had nuclear technology for generations. Obviously, if they wanted nuclear weapons, they would have them. Equally as obvious, when you have nuclear weapons, you are left alone, feared if not respected. And obviously, Iranian leadership has always known and understood all of this. None of what Iran has endured and will endure had to happen, except that Iran chose moral principle over materialistic pragmatism. Again, the way of the true martyr. The satanic world may scoff and mock them. I don't.
Just to cover the 0.001%
If tomorrow Cyrus' whip falls from the heavens onto the heads of the fake hebrews, in the form of a many megaton tipped hypersonic, and Tel Aviv gets glassy, then I take back the above comment.
SUPERB, Hua Bin. Very good analysis. Totally agree. It's been so obvious, but I didn't know many of the key details you shared. Thank you. Looking forward to your next post.
That said, I have this to say about Kevin Barrett's EXTRAORDINARILY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS. IMO, THE SINGLE BEST COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS BEING DELIVERED.
My 2 cents (Cat): China and Russia are wisely sitting back and taking their cues from how the Jews ran WWI and WWII -- Let the goyim duke it out and slaughter themselves and then post-WWII reconstitut their neo Russian and neo Tao-Confucionist selves. Be done with an evil neo Talmudic NWO. Poor Gaza but Russia and China need to fully protect their sovereignty and geoeconomic base so that they can smoothly seque post-WWIII into a kinder, gentler, wiser, neo Tao-Confucianist NWO for We The World.
https://kevinbarrett.substack.com/p/us-walking-into-worlds-biggest-bear
In a recent post you stated:
with the enablement and public support by the US regime, its master-slave hybrid partner in crimes (untangling the bastardly and incestual relationship of the two fascistic states will take more energy than anyone wants to expend, so I’ll leave it at that).
You really don't know Mr. Bin who is the tail and who is the dog? You are ignorant of who are the masters and who are the puppets of American politics? You are ignorant of international banking? You are ignorant of international blackmail, bribery, murder and terrorism schemes? Jeff Epstein? Aipac? Does the phrase Nuremberg regime mean anything to you?
But I know you do know of all these things. So your statement above is quite bizarre.
Allow me to make the point, unequivocally. The United States, and all of Western Civilization for that matter, is a wholly owned subsidiary of the synagogue of Satan. The state of Israel is the symbolic seat of power of this entity. The power it wields is not merely symbolic. The United States, in its current form, exists to serve the interests of this entity. Not the other way around. Your analysis will always miss the mark if you are unable to maintain clarity on this fundamental reality. Although this describes a spiritual reality, the geopolitical one flows from it.
Iran is the last significant state power on the planet that is morally, which is to say spiritually, opposed to the synagogue of Satan and its antihuman machinations. This is why it is targeted for destruction, and has been for decades. Otherwise you are mostly correct. Iran is weak, as any nation should be that has been under siege for decades. Iran is isolated. Its allies have been crushed. Russia and China will remain spectators to the ongoing disassembly, now in its final stages. Russia is already largely captured by the synagogue. Not to the extent of the West, but it's compromised. It will do nothing. And China is eager only to grow fat and rich. It stands with its finger in the wind. It isn't going to engage in any crusade.
Iran had a good run. But in this world, dark spiritual forces win. This is the true history of planet earth. It will remain this way until God renews creation with the return of his son. Until then, things are going to get a lot darker, and a lot more painful, especially for those of us who choose, like Iran, to resist the machinations of Satan.
the history of the jewish state is complex and not clean cut. as the beginning, the european states, mainly britain, wanted a colonial outpost as a spear in the important region. of course, there was the influence from rothchilds and zionist financiers, the brits and later americans thought they were the chess player and israel was the pawn. over time, the relationship changed as the parasite overtakes the host and now the reverse is true. hence, my contention it is an incestuous master/slave relationship that's hard to fully untangle. your points are certainly right regarding the current state of affairs.
From my perspective the United States has been under firm synagogue of Satan control for more than a century. If the United States were a nation independent of synagogue control, the fake Hebrew colonists wouldn't have any land conquest projects going on in the Middle East at all. These are of zero interest for U.S. citizens. It is all expense, risk and harm with no upside. Untangling the history of all of the crimes and intrigues that go on behind the scenes that enable the synagogue to gain and maintain control of the hosts that it parasitizes would take tremendous time and energy. Like what Whitney Webb did with One Nation Under Blackmail. That is a two volume work and it only scratches the surface. But recognizing who is host and who is parasite is quite straightforward. Only the most deluded and or neo of neophyte political observers remains unclear about this.
I only make the point because I see a lot of limited hangout alternative media dissemblers pushing the narrative that the U.S. is using Israel as its proxy. It is the U.S. that wants to destroy Iran, and it uses Israel to do it, they say. This is a lie that is meant to continue to obscure the fundamental problem of zog. Iran is of as much importance and significance to any average American citizen as the price of tea in China. It is utterly irrelevant. It is only because of the synagogue and its fake Hebrew colonist antihuman schemes that the average American knows Iran exists.
I cannot agree more even if I don't think about those things in biblical or religious terms. I suspect you are also right about the theological context.
I certainly think the US ruling elites are in the pocket of the judeo-Nazis that control finance, media, tech and the war machine. Webb's two volumes (I am only half way into the first one though they have been on my bookshelf for almost two years) are an encyclopedia of deep state crimes and links to drug trade, money laundering, sex trafficking, arms sales to death squad. Even that just scratches the surface.
From Peter Dale Scott and Alfred McCoy to Gary Webb and Aaron Good, reports on jewish/US state crimes literally fill bookshelves, at least in my study.
I see the Israel and US relationship as parasite host relationship. Parasite will eventually kill the host after sucking its blood dry. The pace is probably accelerating because the parasite knows the end is near - hence its hastened attack on Iran. If Israel waits longer, the US might have lost in a war with China and becomes so weakened it would lose all value to the parasite. Better to use the host for one last feast before it collapses.
I don't have an answer how the righteous can rid the world of the parasite and virus. A solution may be considered too unspeakable in the west. And frankly, China doesn't see this as its war, just like the war in Iran is not its war. If you cannot eradicate the parasite, at least keep it out.
I'll continue to write about the toxic jewish influence in my essays, hopefully based on facts and history. I hope the world is advised but of course our efforts will always be modest and humble.
Right. I appreciate whatever few small voices there are out there that have the fortitude to confess any important truth, geopolitical or otherwise. So I am glad to have your analysis while it is allowed to last. It is clear that our owners don't intend to allow venues like this to continue to operate.
Not the best style to write a post-mortem for one still alive. China might do well to wean itself off its own passive style.