Just about every conflict we've fought since the Mexican-American War has been expeditionary campaigns of expansionism.
We managed to win World War One by deploying our troops after both the Central Powers and Allies had been exhausted from four years of a grinding war of attrition. Even with those odds favoring us, we still lost 100,000 men during the last ten months of that war.
Same for World War Two:
1) 75% of Nazi Germany's forces were confronted and destroyed by the Soviet Red Army.
2) The Lion's share of the Imperial Japanese Army were bogged down in an bloody stalemate against both Jiang's Nationalist and Mao's Red Army forces in China with no end in sight for Japan. Even before Pearl Harbor, the IJA had lost tens of thousands in the China Theater.
Since 1945, every foreign conflict we've fought overseas has resulted in either a stalemate or strategic defeat.
The Korean War is considered a stalemate in the West. But from my reading of that "police action", China's primary objective was to prevent the U.S. from driving up to the Yalu River and setting up a hostile proxy regime next to the Manchurian province.
In that regard, the CPV Army was successful, if costly.
In more recent times.......a suicide bomber ( a drug dealer who was known to the U.S. Marines) killed over 300 Marines and forced Reagan to withdraw from Lebanon.
Then there was Somalia. During our bid to capture the Warlord Mohammed Aidid, our use of the firepower for close air support caused plenty of collateral damage and many Somalis who were normally neutral or even hostile to the Aidid faction picked up arms and helped the Warlord drive our forces out during the Battle of Mogadishu.
Aside from Desert Storm, Grenada and Panama our record for winning foreign wars has been abysmal simply because most Americans don't know what real war is like when it breaks out on the home front. Which we haven't seen since our War Between the States.
For many ill informed Americans, war is only something that happens to "those other people" in places none of them can even find on a map.
Aside from the DPP, I suspect there is very little desire among most people on Taiwan - or Japan for that matter since their largest trading partner is China - to get dragged into another Pacific War.
I suspect that if the neocons choose to spark a war in the South China Sea, the Chinese would pay whatever price that’s required to prevent another Century of Humiliation. Up to, and including, nuclear war.
That will also mean war with Russia. The symbiotic relationship between China and Russia and their shared vision of the future will leave Moscow little choice and remaining neutral won't be an option for the Kremlin.
the wars fought by the US after WW2 was almost exclusively for the benefits of the MIC and Israel. special interest has completely hijacked US foreign policy as typically happens when an empire enters its final stage. The funny thing is the empire doesn't win wars, they fight for the sake of fighting as that is the most profitable option.
Encyclopedic article! As far as war goes, I don't see any way that the US could fight China...the logistics are just impossible...But I don't think China needs to take Taiwan anytime soon, it will eventually drift into being a separate province of China as the US withdraws from distant obligations to focus on its natural sphere of influence....and that's the good case for the US...Also Trump likes to make threats, but doesn't go to war...we can never take his words at face value.....
"Also Trump likes to make threats, but doesn't go to war...we can never take his words at face value"
Being a brash, loud and bloviating New Yorker, he loves to play the part of a tough guy. But more mature leaders from older civilizations like Xi and Putin probably understand Trump better than the reverse.
Xi and Putin are extremely intelligent, well informed, and when need be, ruthless. And they don't allow emotion or ego to guide their decisions. Whenever I see Wang Yi and Sergey Lavrov meet, it makes me wish we had statesmen of their caliber.
Contrast the cultural exchanges between China and Russia.......
Absolutely outstanding! Great blog! I have followed Mike Whitney for a long time .
The major news outlets used to have reputable foreign correspondents, not any more!
The defunct West is so busy running from the truth they don't realize the train wreck they have created only burns larger and more threatening. They cannot accept their minority position of 12%. As the terrible infants, they are trying to lie their way out of their inevitable fate.
Another well thought and written piece, Hua. As far as war goes, I fully anticipate most Americans will lose their homes and fortunes before we ever trade shots with China. Such is the dangerous condition of our economy and our state in global finance, which very few Americans want to hear about as it would distract them from hating each other's political parties, races, and religions.
I went to Vietnam but had I known that President Johnson started the war in the Gulf of Tokin by sending in our ships to provoke Vietnam and failing that we falsely claimed that our ships were fired upon I would have never gone. I hate bullies and as most kids I ran into some. The more Americans that find out the truth about our government, said government reap a whirlwind of hate for it's own people.
100% agree with your take on the politics (I am not qualified to form a view on the military and technology stuff), but might I ask what your view on the Straits of Malacca is? Is it such a problem for China is the US blockades it? Everyone seems to assume it’s a problem, but I think any blockade would harm Japan and S Korea equally and would be opposed by ASEAN (Philippines notwithstanding). It’s also crazy that Australia would participate in a blockade since any economic fallout will surely be detrimental to Australia. Of course it will also be detrimental to the EU and US itself.
I find it hard to believe the part on military technology in multiple examples.
What is a 6th gen fighter? Flying a new aircraft with a new structure does not mean leading 6th gen development. There’s US has somewhere around 5+ “6th gen” programs in development. But they have not been shown on TV. Literally, a hypersonic bomber prototype is probably in existence for a few years now. Does that win a full war? Doubtful.
There’s so many open ended imprecise statements but in the end the crux is true.
One side has a much larger population and is the center of manufacturing with all the benefits that provides. Which side could suffer the most instability and persist?
you are welcome to check out my articles on military technology and verify them independently. too many people in the west blindly believe the US has military superiority over all, a false belief that is going to cost them dearly.
The war comes down to timing and the participation rate. If the war happens in the next 10 years or so, it favors the US. If the allies of the US join in (Japan, Australia, South Korea), it becomes even more in the US favor.
Another critical element is the frame of it. If the US can frame it as for democracy, then China will have the harder time marshalling soy boys to fight on islands in a brutal war.
Lastly if the frame is simply preventing the taking of Taiwan, the US will simply need to hurt China and make the endeavor a protracted loss just like Ukraine and Russia. If China is foolish enough to step on a pinned hornets nest there is no victory that can be sold.
What is the logistics for winning? We can't even fix the ships we have. We can't even recruit people to fill the ranks. Please stop dreaming and look at the facts. We can't even handle the Houthis. We can't easily replace anything we lose. Any attacks on mainland China will see San Diego and Seattle go up in flames.
I think Ukraine is the template. Ukraine was never going to defeat Russia militarily but look how the US has isolated and stigmatized the Russian Federation. As for China taking Taiwan quickly people have always fought bravely when they believed it was for their home territory. And then even if China prevailed US wouldn't allow normalization of relationships with Korea, Japan or anyone else in their sphere.
I think China should step up their soft power and subversion efforts (think USAID, NED and maybe political blackmail) because the US+UK+ISR have no morals.
We are so stuck in the 19th century. What is the world's population? Everyone outside of America knows the truth about us. We are the ones being isolated. They are taking their gold home. It means they are decoupling from the West. The BRICs+ have their own financial network now. They don't need us.
The reason S. KOREA, Japan, and Philippines are following us is they are our puppets. We have resources in those countries that will make people meet their god earlier than they want. As China increases its capacity to protect them, they will move away from us. It's just a matter of time.
Russian is isolated and stigmatized? Only among people whose opinions don't matter in world affairs. The majority of the world has turned to a multipolar future of which Russia is a primary leader and benefactor.
A much more likely scenario for Taiwanese reunification with the mainland is one of gradual sideways integration over time. You could call it subversion or infiltration if you like but I choose to see it as a joint stock venture with equity invested on both sides.
I have met and talked with many Taiwanese businessmen on the mainland, and if you will forgive the racial stereotyping they are exactly what you would expect from Chinese businessmen, just even more so.
The reunification of China will be a bunch of Chinese businessmen and politicians doing a deal with a bunch of Chinese businessmen and politicians. They are all reasonable men and they will reach a reasonable deal.
That is where things get much more complex, much more interesting and much more difficult for Washington.
There are many scenarios of missile barrages and drone swarms and the PLA rushing the beaches, put about in the Western media. I can't say that won't happen but it is mainly a Western fantasy, dreaming up a situation where they might have the advantage and where they are definitely the "Good Guys".
Where they are not the good guys and where they have very little chance of winning is in a series of mutually beneficial deals between Beijing and Taipei which grow stronger and deeper over time.
Currently the amount of cross straits trade is huge, the number of people, businessmen, students, tourists born on one side of the straits now living working or traveling on the other is also huge.
Mutually beneficial deals, growing stronger over time.
Just about every conflict we've fought since the Mexican-American War has been expeditionary campaigns of expansionism.
We managed to win World War One by deploying our troops after both the Central Powers and Allies had been exhausted from four years of a grinding war of attrition. Even with those odds favoring us, we still lost 100,000 men during the last ten months of that war.
Same for World War Two:
1) 75% of Nazi Germany's forces were confronted and destroyed by the Soviet Red Army.
2) The Lion's share of the Imperial Japanese Army were bogged down in an bloody stalemate against both Jiang's Nationalist and Mao's Red Army forces in China with no end in sight for Japan. Even before Pearl Harbor, the IJA had lost tens of thousands in the China Theater.
Since 1945, every foreign conflict we've fought overseas has resulted in either a stalemate or strategic defeat.
The Korean War is considered a stalemate in the West. But from my reading of that "police action", China's primary objective was to prevent the U.S. from driving up to the Yalu River and setting up a hostile proxy regime next to the Manchurian province.
In that regard, the CPV Army was successful, if costly.
In more recent times.......a suicide bomber ( a drug dealer who was known to the U.S. Marines) killed over 300 Marines and forced Reagan to withdraw from Lebanon.
Then there was Somalia. During our bid to capture the Warlord Mohammed Aidid, our use of the firepower for close air support caused plenty of collateral damage and many Somalis who were normally neutral or even hostile to the Aidid faction picked up arms and helped the Warlord drive our forces out during the Battle of Mogadishu.
Aside from Desert Storm, Grenada and Panama our record for winning foreign wars has been abysmal simply because most Americans don't know what real war is like when it breaks out on the home front. Which we haven't seen since our War Between the States.
For many ill informed Americans, war is only something that happens to "those other people" in places none of them can even find on a map.
Aside from the DPP, I suspect there is very little desire among most people on Taiwan - or Japan for that matter since their largest trading partner is China - to get dragged into another Pacific War.
I suspect that if the neocons choose to spark a war in the South China Sea, the Chinese would pay whatever price that’s required to prevent another Century of Humiliation. Up to, and including, nuclear war.
That will also mean war with Russia. The symbiotic relationship between China and Russia and their shared vision of the future will leave Moscow little choice and remaining neutral won't be an option for the Kremlin.
the wars fought by the US after WW2 was almost exclusively for the benefits of the MIC and Israel. special interest has completely hijacked US foreign policy as typically happens when an empire enters its final stage. The funny thing is the empire doesn't win wars, they fight for the sake of fighting as that is the most profitable option.
Encyclopedic article! As far as war goes, I don't see any way that the US could fight China...the logistics are just impossible...But I don't think China needs to take Taiwan anytime soon, it will eventually drift into being a separate province of China as the US withdraws from distant obligations to focus on its natural sphere of influence....and that's the good case for the US...Also Trump likes to make threats, but doesn't go to war...we can never take his words at face value.....
"Also Trump likes to make threats, but doesn't go to war...we can never take his words at face value"
Being a brash, loud and bloviating New Yorker, he loves to play the part of a tough guy. But more mature leaders from older civilizations like Xi and Putin probably understand Trump better than the reverse.
Xi and Putin are extremely intelligent, well informed, and when need be, ruthless. And they don't allow emotion or ego to guide their decisions. Whenever I see Wang Yi and Sergey Lavrov meet, it makes me wish we had statesmen of their caliber.
Contrast the cultural exchanges between China and Russia.......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muxXYWz8gFY
....with those of the U.S. with our vassals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8KfxgTH1Us
Absolutely outstanding! Great blog! I have followed Mike Whitney for a long time .
The major news outlets used to have reputable foreign correspondents, not any more!
The defunct West is so busy running from the truth they don't realize the train wreck they have created only burns larger and more threatening. They cannot accept their minority position of 12%. As the terrible infants, they are trying to lie their way out of their inevitable fate.
Thank you! As a contribution to the debate, here is my latest article. I didn't focus so much on the military angle because i had done so previously in an interview. Let me know what you think. https://lauraruggeri.substack.com/p/the-maga-effect-on-us-china-relations
Another well thought and written piece, Hua. As far as war goes, I fully anticipate most Americans will lose their homes and fortunes before we ever trade shots with China. Such is the dangerous condition of our economy and our state in global finance, which very few Americans want to hear about as it would distract them from hating each other's political parties, races, and religions.
I went to Vietnam but had I known that President Johnson started the war in the Gulf of Tokin by sending in our ships to provoke Vietnam and failing that we falsely claimed that our ships were fired upon I would have never gone. I hate bullies and as most kids I ran into some. The more Americans that find out the truth about our government, said government reap a whirlwind of hate for it's own people.
HuaBin,
Can I copy this interview in my blog*?
On Media, Trump and the Impending War with China
Mike Whitney Interview with Hua Bin
Manuel Baptista (*) https://manuelbaneteleproprio.blogspot.com/
no problem. Feel free to share. best
100% agree with your take on the politics (I am not qualified to form a view on the military and technology stuff), but might I ask what your view on the Straits of Malacca is? Is it such a problem for China is the US blockades it? Everyone seems to assume it’s a problem, but I think any blockade would harm Japan and S Korea equally and would be opposed by ASEAN (Philippines notwithstanding). It’s also crazy that Australia would participate in a blockade since any economic fallout will surely be detrimental to Australia. Of course it will also be detrimental to the EU and US itself.
Where can I find evidence supporting the claim that the 9/11 terrorist attacks were part of a coordinated false flag operation?
I find it hard to believe the part on military technology in multiple examples.
What is a 6th gen fighter? Flying a new aircraft with a new structure does not mean leading 6th gen development. There’s US has somewhere around 5+ “6th gen” programs in development. But they have not been shown on TV. Literally, a hypersonic bomber prototype is probably in existence for a few years now. Does that win a full war? Doubtful.
There’s so many open ended imprecise statements but in the end the crux is true.
One side has a much larger population and is the center of manufacturing with all the benefits that provides. Which side could suffer the most instability and persist?
you are welcome to check out my articles on military technology and verify them independently. too many people in the west blindly believe the US has military superiority over all, a false belief that is going to cost them dearly.
The war comes down to timing and the participation rate. If the war happens in the next 10 years or so, it favors the US. If the allies of the US join in (Japan, Australia, South Korea), it becomes even more in the US favor.
Another critical element is the frame of it. If the US can frame it as for democracy, then China will have the harder time marshalling soy boys to fight on islands in a brutal war.
Lastly if the frame is simply preventing the taking of Taiwan, the US will simply need to hurt China and make the endeavor a protracted loss just like Ukraine and Russia. If China is foolish enough to step on a pinned hornets nest there is no victory that can be sold.
What is the logistics for winning? We can't even fix the ships we have. We can't even recruit people to fill the ranks. Please stop dreaming and look at the facts. We can't even handle the Houthis. We can't easily replace anything we lose. Any attacks on mainland China will see San Diego and Seattle go up in flames.
I think Ukraine is the template. Ukraine was never going to defeat Russia militarily but look how the US has isolated and stigmatized the Russian Federation. As for China taking Taiwan quickly people have always fought bravely when they believed it was for their home territory. And then even if China prevailed US wouldn't allow normalization of relationships with Korea, Japan or anyone else in their sphere.
I think China should step up their soft power and subversion efforts (think USAID, NED and maybe political blackmail) because the US+UK+ISR have no morals.
We are so stuck in the 19th century. What is the world's population? Everyone outside of America knows the truth about us. We are the ones being isolated. They are taking their gold home. It means they are decoupling from the West. The BRICs+ have their own financial network now. They don't need us.
The reason S. KOREA, Japan, and Philippines are following us is they are our puppets. We have resources in those countries that will make people meet their god earlier than they want. As China increases its capacity to protect them, they will move away from us. It's just a matter of time.
Russian is isolated and stigmatized? Only among people whose opinions don't matter in world affairs. The majority of the world has turned to a multipolar future of which Russia is a primary leader and benefactor.
A much more likely scenario for Taiwanese reunification with the mainland is one of gradual sideways integration over time. You could call it subversion or infiltration if you like but I choose to see it as a joint stock venture with equity invested on both sides.
I have met and talked with many Taiwanese businessmen on the mainland, and if you will forgive the racial stereotyping they are exactly what you would expect from Chinese businessmen, just even more so.
The reunification of China will be a bunch of Chinese businessmen and politicians doing a deal with a bunch of Chinese businessmen and politicians. They are all reasonable men and they will reach a reasonable deal.
That is where things get much more complex, much more interesting and much more difficult for Washington.
There are many scenarios of missile barrages and drone swarms and the PLA rushing the beaches, put about in the Western media. I can't say that won't happen but it is mainly a Western fantasy, dreaming up a situation where they might have the advantage and where they are definitely the "Good Guys".
Where they are not the good guys and where they have very little chance of winning is in a series of mutually beneficial deals between Beijing and Taipei which grow stronger and deeper over time.
Currently the amount of cross straits trade is huge, the number of people, businessmen, students, tourists born on one side of the straits now living working or traveling on the other is also huge.
Mutually beneficial deals, growing stronger over time.