Interesting piece but I think it would be prudent to wait a bit before making definitive conclusions.
Iran took a hit in the Israeli surprise attack. However, Iran has dominated ever since, with extremely lethal and targeted missile barrages that are overwhelming Israel's AD systems.
Iran has the capacity to hit Israel daily, for months. Israel does not have that capacity.
As for what you call "ruthlessness" - I call it cowardice. Israel and the US deceived Iran, I guess it is "clever" in the way a conman could be called "clever", but all it does is confirm both nations as fundamentally dishonest and untrustworthy. It doesn't bode well for either of them.
I am making a distinction between the final outcome of the conflict, which may very well pan out as you suggest, and the strategic errors Iran made prior to the Israeli attack. Of course, there were mitigating circumstances, Iran clearly has failed to project deterrence in the past year either regarding its decisiveness on the nuclear issue or the way it responded to repeated Israeli aggressions (assassinations, bombing of Iranian port, destruction of Iranian allies such as Syria and Hezbollah). Iran was seeking compromise and accomodation when it should have been fully aware of jewish and US treachery and it was clearly unprepared for the sneak attack.
Iran could come out ahead in the exchange, though I doubt it as the jews have the full backing of the US, but even if that turns out true, the damage it suffered is costly and largely avoidable.
Good points and well made. BTW, I definitely am not saying that I am correct. I agree that the Iranians appear too easily fooled, in particular the new President who has always appeared a little naive.
The way that the Israelis were able to so easily infiltrate into Iran and then hit senior military commanders is a head scratcher, too.
I wonder if there's a cultural issue here as well. The IIranians have a different view of life and death, than we do. They are deeply religious and sometimes their senior people seem almost indifferent/ resigned to the possibility of death.
In any event I doubt that Tehran will ever be so lax again, after this.
by the way, I totally agree with your point about the "clever" israeli/US manipulations may well be a pyrrhic victory as their dishonesty and treachery is exposed once again. sadly, much of the world, especially in the west, are blinded by their own propadanga and can never see how their actions are perceived by others. even they do have a moment of revelation, that will last about 15 minutes till the next news cycle.
I just think they are not hardened analytical thinkers and cold-eyed realists, prone to be swayed by emotion and empty jesture, like raising the black flag or the red flag. who are they going to scare?
I agree. Both the Hegemon and Israel are vulgar and ruthless, but they both hold the power card in this struggle, and will most likely prevail. Let’s pray that Iran survives without extraction of its vast resources and the Vichy rule of a puppet government!!
A harsh but needed piece of truth-telling. Too many in the alt-media refuse to recognize the need for harsh deterrence to the genocidal western powers and its rabid attack dog, Israel
that's exactly the point I am making. Peace through strength, especially when you are dealing with rogue bullying actors who don't have respect for international law or human morality. The west has always subscribed to social Darwinianism, opposite to its own lofty rhetoric. In the jungle, might is right.
well put. The prisoner's dilemma is the prism through which the west looks at the world. For them, it is a zero-sum game. Once you know their default starting position, the only rational course of action is to assume the worst and be equally ruthless. That's why young Kim is among the living while Saddam and Gadaffi are six feet under. This is especially true with weaker states in the system where mistakes are far more costly. I am shocked that Iran walked into the trap so easily.
Unfortunately this analysis is quite clear and true, though we wished It would be more benign for Iran, but this is what really happened.
I just wonder why China still supplies the USA with rare earths. Is it so that the USA can retaliate against China, Russia and Iran with even more violence?
Why not eliminate any and all supplies to the USA, and to the West?.
the rare earth relaxation is for 6 months only at this point, subject to how the trade deal evolves. the relaxation is mainly geared to legitimate civilian industries like the auto sector to sustain global supply chain. I don't think China will allow export of rare earth to the US military industrial complex. The export licensing program is designed to prevent that. Of course, the US will cheat and redirect some Chinese rare earth to its military machine. But China will only tighten the noose over time.
in the medium to long term, China has decided to decouple with the US at a controlled pace. Rare earth will be tightly regulated and maybe even completely cut off in extreme situations like a kinetic war. But overall, China also has no intention to chokehold legimitate end use.
Devastatingly incisive and impossible to argue with. Your citation of the Talmud shows a willingness to step into the dark waters of the origin of the satanic forces. With generations of Jews constantly refreshing themselves at the cesspool of the Talmud, there is little hope the west, Russia or Iran can defend themselves.
Here in Berlin, the co-opting of the state by the propaganda of the Jews is evident at every turn — in the most innocuous context, the plight of the Jews is referenced. Berlin is even worse than New York City. America itself is the apotheosis of the Jew, the true Zion.
my long time thesis has been the US is the fourth reich for the zionists and Israel is a judeo-Nazi state. the US and the collective west has been thoroughly compromised by jewish financial interests and serve primarily as the host for the parasitic rentier class dominated by the Khazarian jews. the west is in a mind-warping predicament of fighting wars for the jews while being bled dry on their rentier exploitation.
as for the Germany, I simply cannot get my head around its complicity with israeli crimes. I know many Germans when living there almost 30 years ago and they have always seemed an even headed and rational people but the whole guilt complex, constantly reinforced by the Holocaust industry, manifests in a very perverted way - how can you redeem your own guilt for genocide by supporting another genocide? Whatever the psychological or political motivations, the Germans are again guilty of genocide as an enabler and accomplice.
Agreed. It’s been explained to me as result of the change of ownership in the media so that Spiegel, Frankfurter Allgemeine, Bertelsmann etc are owned and controlled.
Thus, the genocide of Muslims is inherently trivial because atonement must be always made with the Jews first, beginning with the request to sympathize with humanity at large — which of course the Talmud denies.
Completely agree with Hua Bin’s assessment on Iran’s failure to understand it is targeted not just for regime change by the US and Israel, but for regime destruction. It will be most interesting to see over the coming months whether or not the JCPOA ‘Snap-Back’ Sanctions are enforced. It certainly seems likely, especially with the recent IAEA “findings” on Iranian compliance. If so, Iran may finally withdraw from the Non-proliferation Treaty and this will signal its intent to finally assert its sovereignty rights, instead of being a US/Israel punching bag for the last half century.
I suspect you are right Iran will withdraw from NPT. IAEA is a western and jewish pawn and never a fair even-handed interloper to start with. Where is its outrage or oversight over the illegal Israeli nuclear weapon program?
Unfortunately for Iran, the wake-up call was painful and humiliating when they could have established real deterrent at a far lower cost. Adding insult to injury, their naivety with the bad faith US regime is amateurish when you could see through the trap without the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.
given the fragile domestic balance of power and widespread dissatisfaction/fifth column within Iran, I am not sure the jews and the US won't succeed in regime destablization, if not wholesale regime destruction.
I agree with most of what you say Hua, with one major caveat. N Korea has China on one side behind its back, a constant impassable immovable object. Iran has been surrounded by enemies on all sides for 40 years with mountainous difficult to seal borders. The western attack on Iran if iran had gone nuclear, would not have been big kinetic but terrorist infiltration. Nuclear weapons are not usable and are only a deterrence if you have conventional deterrence also as shown by Russia Ukraine.
In the 1980s and 90s the CIA was crawling all over Iran’s eastern border. In the 00s their northern borders were destabilised and their western borders. It is only since 2015 and the build up of their missile arsenal, that they’ve had enough internal security to look out.
With the resurgence of Russia and China, the picture has changed again. It is now in the entire free world’s interest to expel the Anglo Zionist empire from W Asia and establish a cordon of thriving states. A cordon of thriving states prevents terrorist infiltration.
The capture of Iran’s 90m population would allow the empire to create enough Julani jihaddis to destabilise the entire Central Asia and Pakistan and trash the soft underbelly of Eurasian integration. A Julani’d Pakistan would supply enough terrorists to destabilise China itself.
The only way the empire can defeat Russia/ China is asymmetric terrorism as per the cia Ukraine strategy. It’s the only thing they’re good at, assymetric terrorism and elite capture. The destruction of Iraq allowed the creation of terrorist factories to destroy Libya, then Syria.
That’s why they must be stopped at Iran. If Iran stops them by remaining standing and sovereign, and keeps them in a long war, the empires reserves will be depleted and it can be expelled from W Asia. This is now a realistic possibility. The free world needs to make it a probability with logistical support for Iran and publicly declaring a nuclear redline against any nuclear attack on Iran. With logistical support the Iranians can deal with any conventional attack and continue the long attrition via its missile forces. Russia has shown the way with Iranian and Chinese help. Now Iran will lead with Russian and Chinese help.
very thoughtful points. I completely agree it's in China's interest and the right thing to do morally to help Iran the best it could. My contention is mainly about Iran's strategic mistakes and poor acuman that has led to the crisis. China's help will be limited in reality, especially militarily since it doesn't have power projection in the middle east and Iran has not acquired much Chinese weapon systems before so there will be compatibility and training issues even if China ships arms to it now. Realistically, Iran has to fight its own war with Israel and the US. Its allies in the region are largely neutralized, partly because it failed to protect them in their moment of crisis last year.
I have a different take on how the US would benefit from the war in Iran even if it manages to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and much of its military and political leadership. Instead, I think it is stepping into a bear trap. The US won't put boots on the ground to occupy the country, which is impossible given Iran's size and population. The Iranian resistence and hatred of the US and Israel is only going to grow - it's hard to bomb someone into loving you. Just see Iraq, Libya or Syria. How did the US and the west benefit from their "victories"?
the focus of the US and the west is of course always China so China has to win that war at a time and place of its choosing rather than getting distracted like the US. It's hard to imagine China winning a war against the US if the battlefield is the middle east.
as for North Korea's nuclear program, unlike many people assume, China is actually very adamantly against it even if China is a treaty ally with North Korea (the only such security treaty China has with any country). However, Kim realized it is the final insurance policy against a US/S Korea invasion. He acquired the bomb over the strong opposition of both China and Russia but now the US wouldn't even think of making a wrong move in the pennisular. This is deterrence.
“The masses awakening”…do you know that has repeated endlessly for 20 years at least? As has the speculation that Israel has only “x” number of years to survive. Those of us who are older have taken these chits to the bank and they’re still worthless.
Don’t be deluded into thinking that what you write will come to pass. The existence of Israel and the US are co-terminus.
The wandering Jew has controlled all US presidents since at least Clinton. It is possible the next will be a Jew (someone like Bloomberg). When the successor bill to HR6696 is reintroduced, then passed in the end, you will realize that all that is written here will be illegal. Only the punishment is unclear. It’s being worked out by the controllers. What a great time to be a Jew!
you are unfortunately right the jews are tightening the leash in the west, starting with the US. with the passage of the "anti-semitism" bill, the US regime is essentially conflating anti-zionism with anti-semitism and criminalizing any speech or action against the jewish state. quite literally, jews will be treated as an exceptional class in the US as the same protection is not afforded to any other ethnic or religious groups including protestant whites. you can be anti-american but not anti-jew. the regime will enforce it by policing every one of your social media account and personal communications. welcome to 1984 the US gulag
The latest reports on Iran, if borne out, will establish your prescience and rare objectivity. The handwringing on the “failure” of Russia and China to “solve” the problem of the west and the Jew is a mixture of deflection and tacit admission of the West’s defeat.
There really are too many substacks — and not enough good ones. Glad to see you on Unz.
I strongly suspect that with the latest attack by Israel on Iran, Iran will now proceed to develop a nuclear deterrent within the next year or two. The clearest lesson to learn from this brazen attack, and given the failure of the nuclear powers to obey their side of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty over the last couple of decades, is that nuclear weapons are a necessary part of a country's survival strategy. I'd call myself, as a New Zealander an "anti-nuclear peacenik" since the 1980's BUT I have come to the conclusion that, given the nuclear powers are unwilling to act responsibility that a modest nuclear capability is reasonable for mid-powers. (I'd still oppose NZ acquiring them as there is simply no need for us as a small-power).
that's what a cold-eyed reasoning would suggest. I am totally in support of global ban of nuclear weapons as a threat to humanity like global warming. But no one will trust the others in a classic prisoner's dilemma. The treachery seen in the US/Iran nuclear negotiation is enough to dissuade any rational players to trust the good faith of the other. the US is among the least trustworthy major powers as it has practically broken every single major bilateral and multilateral commitments it has made from UN laws, INF treaty, not an inch east NATO expansion, one China policy, etc. It also repeatedly launched unprovoked wars of aggression under false pretence - from Afganistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya.
in the absence of trust, a global Mexican standoff may be the best solution to discourage nuclear brinkmanship. N Korea understood it very early on, same with Israel, and I suspect Iran will come to the same realization. If they don't, may allah help them.
as for the small states living under US "nuclear umbrella", I never believe the US would go into a nuclear exchange with another major power on behalf of its vassals. JFK said the security of the slave is no security at all. Entrapment (when a small state holds a major state hostage via treaty obligation) has never worked in history - which master is willing to commit suicide for his slaves?
As a NZer I both fought against being under the US nuclear umbrella in the 1980s and still do now - though the peace movement seems to have disappeared so there is unsufficient domestic pressure on our government for them not to "snuggle up"to its US friends. I can't for the life of me see either the rationale or the ethics behind such a perspective. It's either total foolishness or extraordinary behind the scenes pressure - probably both.
my ongoing hypothesis is most western leaders are coopted by the US, especially the 5 eyes and NATO members. of course, there could be the odd ball from the left field occasionally like Viktor Orban, but even that feels like controlled opposition. electoral politics automatically lend itself to manipulation and capture by the dark elements in the national security deep state. political meddling is hardly limited to the adversaries - remember Kissinger's truism "to be America's friend is dangerous, to be its ally is fatal".
I do think NZ is largely immune from any fallout of global turbulence, barring some remarkably stupid move. Peter Thiele getting a NZ residence is a good indicator even some of the darkest forces believe NZ will be spared of a global conflict. I hope for your sake NZ will not elect a single IQ low-wit like scott morrison who managed to destroy any prospect of aussie neutrality and security.
Great analysis, but we must also include the desperation of the failing West as a motivating factor. We are in the midst of the greatest power shift the world has ever seen and possibly will ever see. From where I sit the Ukraine war, the Gaza Genocide and now this war are last ditch efforts to check the decline, when even now they are accelerating the decline of the West.
Whom the gods destroy they first of all stupefy and then make mad.
the Israeli adventure with Iran will be a strategic disaster in the long run. The west has lost its final fig leaf when it supports the open genocide of israel, which is the latest european colonial project, no more and no less. As you alluded, karma and god work in mysterious ways. when the europeans and later americans put israel in the middle east chessboard as a pawn and spear into the eurasian heartland, they probably never thought it would turn out to be the last nail on its coffin.
the point I'm making in the essay is Iran didn't have to be the sacrificial lamb to take down israel if it is strategically and tactically more astute. The lack of determination and a cold-eyed understanding of jewish/US duplicity have extracted its pound of flesh. I hope people elsewhere wake up and understand there is no deal with the devil. Like Chairman Mao said, revolution is not a dinner party. You only get what you want through struggle and strength.
We are all getting a lesson in how ruthless human behavior can be when there is so much at stake and how dangerous it is when too much power is in the wrong hands.
The Muslim and Hindu countries are cursed to be bedeviled by religious politics that leads to humongous corruption and waste that leads to sectarians looking away at the corrupt deals of the religious establishment out of pure sectarian envy stoked by the religious state apparatus - classical example Indias hugely corrupt acquisition of the Rafale fighters which was defended to the hilt by the Hindu religious nuts out of rage against Muslims. The Iranian IRGC is hugely corrupt and inept and the country is compromised by westoids who make up at least half the population (In India it is probably 80-90% of the population) who are suckers for western visas and the comforts of the west. A significant part of the leadership close to the Ayatollah and the IRGC leadership are themselves compromised because their children and kith and kin are US citizens and are integrated into the Democratic-Republican ruling class apparatus of the US. This prevents the countries from thinking 'civilisationally' which is key to long term survival. The advantage of Russia under Putin China under Xi and North Korea under Kim (which is no more communist Korea but 'free and independent' Korea) is that they are able to think civilisationally. Kim didnt fall into the degenerate uncultured Freemason deceiver Trump's attempt to gull him into a deal and he seemed to have seen his deceit through. Extreme brutality awaits the Muslim states as the Solomonite Western royals and upper class, Masons and Jesuits advance towards the third temple and the creation of Greater Israel from Egypt all the way through the Levant the Arabian Gulf Persia Central Asia Ukraine and Crimea. I hope Putin and Xi are not fooled by western negotiations because all countries in Eastern Europe are being revolutionised with woke Talmudic puppets (just see what's happening in Romania and Moldova and the laws being passed in both countries) propped up as presidents and prime ministers Orthodoxy being prosecuted bioweapon labs targeting Slavic genome planted all over and the mother of all wickedities - a massive $10 billion military base being built ground up in Romania for that final decapitation of Russia and then China (there is a dispute in the western oligarchy with regard to which country should be taken first - that's all - they will come for both). The Temple of Solomon has been waging war against humanity since the French and American revolutions and if Russia and China keel over 95% of humanity will go under Nohaide Laws as slaves or be put to death.
appreciate the perspective. I think this summarizes the deeper context of the war of civilizations we are witnessing. I don't completely agree that the chihuahua states in eastern europe are good examples to show Russia or China are at the mercy of similar "color revolutions" though it came close for Russia before Putin (you can argue, even the first decade of Putin's rule). The vassal states in eastern europe are desperate to come under the NATO "collective security" umbrella whose validity is yet to be tested. but it is the fate of weak small states to want the "security of the slave" as JFK put it.
the $10 billion military base in Romania is just a big juicy target to be decimated, hardly a platform for "decapitation of Russia and China". If that is their goal, they are just delusional and stupid. If $10 billion can take care of either Russia or China, the US wouldn't need a trillion dollar defense budget or require 5% GDP on mil spending for its vassals.
of coure, the genome-targeted bioweapon is a serious risk but the US already had the painful lesson of boomerang from its COVID attack on China. the US itself suffered the highest deaths from COVID, a fine product from Fort Derrick. the evil master is Marchiavellian but bad at science, I guess.
with regard to Iran and India, I just happened to respond to another reader the following, which I think addresses your point as well:
"I think Iran needs to decide where it wants to go. Iran is an internally fractured country and not a very astute geopolitical player. Russia and China certainly have their preferred outcomes for the conflict but I doubt they will shape the outcome too proactively. There is an old Chinese proverb "a forced melon is not sweet".
If Iran realizes the value of a clean break with the west and closer collaboration with Russia and China, it will be embraced with open arms. But if the regime continues its indecisive and compromising course, it probably would be more a liability than asset, the way India is. There is a reason Iran and India have been cozying up with each other as both want to sit on the fence and maximize benefits from the two opposing camps. But fence-sitters, especially weak and unwise ones, are more likely to turn out as the trampled grass when elephants fight".
In addition, Iran has a massive fifth column of westoids, as you pointed out. I doubt the country is a stable partner with such internal polarization. The snitching and traitors from within would give any potential partner cause for closer collaboration.
With India, it's more clear cut - it is not to be trusted by Russia or China though Russia seems desperate to keep its traditional influence alive there. india wouldn't know loyalty if it hits the country in the face. the country is a fence sitter since inception and has always put its western masters on a pedestal. the Indians seem to harbor a secret delusion that they could rule the west one day by sneaking up to western "democracies" the same way Rishi Sunak landed the PM-ship of india's long time master. good luck to the indians and their potential victims.
it's been like this for decades. the traitors and snitches will never be weeded out as over half of the population secretly want to go back to the days before 1979.
>>Israel detonating CAR BOMBS in Tehran in tandem with missile strikes — IRNA
Agency claims 'at least 5 bombs' exploded
'Mossad agents are doing wonderful job' — Israeli author Amir Tsarfati
>>
Plus some picture. Try something like "Tunnelbear" Free for 2GB per months, so switch off when no longer needed. Before that Apply "forget about this site" or equivalent to x.com in your browsers history.
Certainly Zionists (both Jewish and Christian) who practice and condone brutal crimes -- including genocide -- against Palestinians, other Arab people and Iranians can be labeled a "Singularity of Evil," but this doesn't apply across the board to the Jewish people as a whole. There are many Jews and Jewish groups (like Jewish Voice for Peace, Not in Our Name, B'Tselem, et.al. who condemn and work against Israel's aggressive, criminal, behavior, etc.
The Christian zionists are just stupid or poorly informed people being manipulated by their Jewish masters.
"Pro-palestine" groups like Jewish voices for peace are actually just trying to run the Palestine movement into the ground by making it incoherent and excessively liberal.
Sweeping generalizations aren't very persuasive. Okay, elements of truth in the first sentence above, but there are CZ "believers" in or who have been in powerful positions who are not stupid (Pompeo, Huckabee, et.al.). No question that Israeli Zionists have been cultivating and "managing" Christian Zionists for the "cause" for decades tho. Your second paragraph is sort of a mindless assertion . . . it doesn't really have anything to do with what has and is happening. You don't appear to be or sound like a serious political analyst.
agreed. there are many jewish voices with conscience and humanity like Norman Finkelstein, Ilan Pappe, Jeffrey Sachs, Chomsky, Max Blumenthal, but unfortunately they are a small powerless minority. The majority of the jewish population is openly supportive of the genocide and destruction the zionist state is waging against its neighbors. Beyond that, they are working overtime to extract and exploit the hosts they parasite on. of course, to the jewish financiers and oligarchs, that is even more important than the zionist project. the west is in a funny predictment where they are fighting wars on behalf of the jews at the same time being sucked dry by their jewish rentier overlords.
They got rid of Assad and the whole Muslim world was cheering. Now they're getting rid of Khamenei and the same low IQ Muslim hypocrites are crying crocodile tears🤣...I'm sick of low IQ third world Muslims as much as I'm sick of CPC, Wumaos, Zionists and Neocons. Just get it over with. Many Persians are welcoming a change..
Hey @oliver1971! This is your first piece I'm not in absolute concurrence with you, but that's besides the point. I do have a sizzling question for you though!
What's up with (as of last night 5-6, perhaps more since) the repeated Y20s landing in Tehran and areas in eastern Iran with their transponders switched off? I'm guessing (hoping) HQ series air defense deliveries, but that's pure speculation. What are you hearing, if anything?
first of all, thanks for the trust. I have received many comments from readers who probably have similar questions regarding my arguments in the essay. I intend to write a follow up piece to offer more perspectives for discussion.
regarding the Y20 landings, I heard some noises as well but haven't seen any official verification. There are also rumors about Chinese cargo ships heading to Iran with transponders off. But I have my doubts as high end HQ air defense systems are not plug and play platforms. Ususally months of training would be required, especially since existing Iranian air defense mainly comes from Russia and has compatibility issues with HQ series. China is politically friendly with Iran but not militarily close like Russia.
I'll share some observations on China's perspectives regarding Iran that are widely disseminated on Chinese social media in my follow up piece. Net net I doubt China will play a major military role at this stage.
Interesting piece but I think it would be prudent to wait a bit before making definitive conclusions.
Iran took a hit in the Israeli surprise attack. However, Iran has dominated ever since, with extremely lethal and targeted missile barrages that are overwhelming Israel's AD systems.
Iran has the capacity to hit Israel daily, for months. Israel does not have that capacity.
As for what you call "ruthlessness" - I call it cowardice. Israel and the US deceived Iran, I guess it is "clever" in the way a conman could be called "clever", but all it does is confirm both nations as fundamentally dishonest and untrustworthy. It doesn't bode well for either of them.
I am making a distinction between the final outcome of the conflict, which may very well pan out as you suggest, and the strategic errors Iran made prior to the Israeli attack. Of course, there were mitigating circumstances, Iran clearly has failed to project deterrence in the past year either regarding its decisiveness on the nuclear issue or the way it responded to repeated Israeli aggressions (assassinations, bombing of Iranian port, destruction of Iranian allies such as Syria and Hezbollah). Iran was seeking compromise and accomodation when it should have been fully aware of jewish and US treachery and it was clearly unprepared for the sneak attack.
Iran could come out ahead in the exchange, though I doubt it as the jews have the full backing of the US, but even if that turns out true, the damage it suffered is costly and largely avoidable.
Good points and well made. BTW, I definitely am not saying that I am correct. I agree that the Iranians appear too easily fooled, in particular the new President who has always appeared a little naive.
The way that the Israelis were able to so easily infiltrate into Iran and then hit senior military commanders is a head scratcher, too.
I wonder if there's a cultural issue here as well. The IIranians have a different view of life and death, than we do. They are deeply religious and sometimes their senior people seem almost indifferent/ resigned to the possibility of death.
In any event I doubt that Tehran will ever be so lax again, after this.
by the way, I totally agree with your point about the "clever" israeli/US manipulations may well be a pyrrhic victory as their dishonesty and treachery is exposed once again. sadly, much of the world, especially in the west, are blinded by their own propadanga and can never see how their actions are perceived by others. even they do have a moment of revelation, that will last about 15 minutes till the next news cycle.
I just think they are not hardened analytical thinkers and cold-eyed realists, prone to be swayed by emotion and empty jesture, like raising the black flag or the red flag. who are they going to scare?
I agree. Both the Hegemon and Israel are vulgar and ruthless, but they both hold the power card in this struggle, and will most likely prevail. Let’s pray that Iran survives without extraction of its vast resources and the Vichy rule of a puppet government!!
A harsh but needed piece of truth-telling. Too many in the alt-media refuse to recognize the need for harsh deterrence to the genocidal western powers and its rabid attack dog, Israel
that's exactly the point I am making. Peace through strength, especially when you are dealing with rogue bullying actors who don't have respect for international law or human morality. The west has always subscribed to social Darwinianism, opposite to its own lofty rhetoric. In the jungle, might is right.
The world is a "prisoner's dilemma" situation nowadays.
To play the game with morals and cries about "international law" is foolish when the opponents are ruthless.
We cannot hope for the ideal outcome of mutual cooperation; only the Nash Equilibrium where both sides protect themselves through equal ruthlessness.
well put. The prisoner's dilemma is the prism through which the west looks at the world. For them, it is a zero-sum game. Once you know their default starting position, the only rational course of action is to assume the worst and be equally ruthless. That's why young Kim is among the living while Saddam and Gadaffi are six feet under. This is especially true with weaker states in the system where mistakes are far more costly. I am shocked that Iran walked into the trap so easily.
Unfortunately this analysis is quite clear and true, though we wished It would be more benign for Iran, but this is what really happened.
I just wonder why China still supplies the USA with rare earths. Is it so that the USA can retaliate against China, Russia and Iran with even more violence?
Why not eliminate any and all supplies to the USA, and to the West?.
the rare earth relaxation is for 6 months only at this point, subject to how the trade deal evolves. the relaxation is mainly geared to legitimate civilian industries like the auto sector to sustain global supply chain. I don't think China will allow export of rare earth to the US military industrial complex. The export licensing program is designed to prevent that. Of course, the US will cheat and redirect some Chinese rare earth to its military machine. But China will only tighten the noose over time.
in the medium to long term, China has decided to decouple with the US at a controlled pace. Rare earth will be tightly regulated and maybe even completely cut off in extreme situations like a kinetic war. But overall, China also has no intention to chokehold legimitate end use.
All about the Benjamins!
Devastatingly incisive and impossible to argue with. Your citation of the Talmud shows a willingness to step into the dark waters of the origin of the satanic forces. With generations of Jews constantly refreshing themselves at the cesspool of the Talmud, there is little hope the west, Russia or Iran can defend themselves.
Here in Berlin, the co-opting of the state by the propaganda of the Jews is evident at every turn — in the most innocuous context, the plight of the Jews is referenced. Berlin is even worse than New York City. America itself is the apotheosis of the Jew, the true Zion.
my long time thesis has been the US is the fourth reich for the zionists and Israel is a judeo-Nazi state. the US and the collective west has been thoroughly compromised by jewish financial interests and serve primarily as the host for the parasitic rentier class dominated by the Khazarian jews. the west is in a mind-warping predicament of fighting wars for the jews while being bled dry on their rentier exploitation.
as for the Germany, I simply cannot get my head around its complicity with israeli crimes. I know many Germans when living there almost 30 years ago and they have always seemed an even headed and rational people but the whole guilt complex, constantly reinforced by the Holocaust industry, manifests in a very perverted way - how can you redeem your own guilt for genocide by supporting another genocide? Whatever the psychological or political motivations, the Germans are again guilty of genocide as an enabler and accomplice.
Agreed. It’s been explained to me as result of the change of ownership in the media so that Spiegel, Frankfurter Allgemeine, Bertelsmann etc are owned and controlled.
Thus, the genocide of Muslims is inherently trivial because atonement must be always made with the Jews first, beginning with the request to sympathize with humanity at large — which of course the Talmud denies.
Completely agree with Hua Bin’s assessment on Iran’s failure to understand it is targeted not just for regime change by the US and Israel, but for regime destruction. It will be most interesting to see over the coming months whether or not the JCPOA ‘Snap-Back’ Sanctions are enforced. It certainly seems likely, especially with the recent IAEA “findings” on Iranian compliance. If so, Iran may finally withdraw from the Non-proliferation Treaty and this will signal its intent to finally assert its sovereignty rights, instead of being a US/Israel punching bag for the last half century.
I suspect you are right Iran will withdraw from NPT. IAEA is a western and jewish pawn and never a fair even-handed interloper to start with. Where is its outrage or oversight over the illegal Israeli nuclear weapon program?
Unfortunately for Iran, the wake-up call was painful and humiliating when they could have established real deterrent at a far lower cost. Adding insult to injury, their naivety with the bad faith US regime is amateurish when you could see through the trap without the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.
given the fragile domestic balance of power and widespread dissatisfaction/fifth column within Iran, I am not sure the jews and the US won't succeed in regime destablization, if not wholesale regime destruction.
I agree with most of what you say Hua, with one major caveat. N Korea has China on one side behind its back, a constant impassable immovable object. Iran has been surrounded by enemies on all sides for 40 years with mountainous difficult to seal borders. The western attack on Iran if iran had gone nuclear, would not have been big kinetic but terrorist infiltration. Nuclear weapons are not usable and are only a deterrence if you have conventional deterrence also as shown by Russia Ukraine.
In the 1980s and 90s the CIA was crawling all over Iran’s eastern border. In the 00s their northern borders were destabilised and their western borders. It is only since 2015 and the build up of their missile arsenal, that they’ve had enough internal security to look out.
With the resurgence of Russia and China, the picture has changed again. It is now in the entire free world’s interest to expel the Anglo Zionist empire from W Asia and establish a cordon of thriving states. A cordon of thriving states prevents terrorist infiltration.
The capture of Iran’s 90m population would allow the empire to create enough Julani jihaddis to destabilise the entire Central Asia and Pakistan and trash the soft underbelly of Eurasian integration. A Julani’d Pakistan would supply enough terrorists to destabilise China itself.
The only way the empire can defeat Russia/ China is asymmetric terrorism as per the cia Ukraine strategy. It’s the only thing they’re good at, assymetric terrorism and elite capture. The destruction of Iraq allowed the creation of terrorist factories to destroy Libya, then Syria.
That’s why they must be stopped at Iran. If Iran stops them by remaining standing and sovereign, and keeps them in a long war, the empires reserves will be depleted and it can be expelled from W Asia. This is now a realistic possibility. The free world needs to make it a probability with logistical support for Iran and publicly declaring a nuclear redline against any nuclear attack on Iran. With logistical support the Iranians can deal with any conventional attack and continue the long attrition via its missile forces. Russia has shown the way with Iranian and Chinese help. Now Iran will lead with Russian and Chinese help.
Soon the empire’s focus will move to China.
very thoughtful points. I completely agree it's in China's interest and the right thing to do morally to help Iran the best it could. My contention is mainly about Iran's strategic mistakes and poor acuman that has led to the crisis. China's help will be limited in reality, especially militarily since it doesn't have power projection in the middle east and Iran has not acquired much Chinese weapon systems before so there will be compatibility and training issues even if China ships arms to it now. Realistically, Iran has to fight its own war with Israel and the US. Its allies in the region are largely neutralized, partly because it failed to protect them in their moment of crisis last year.
I have a different take on how the US would benefit from the war in Iran even if it manages to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and much of its military and political leadership. Instead, I think it is stepping into a bear trap. The US won't put boots on the ground to occupy the country, which is impossible given Iran's size and population. The Iranian resistence and hatred of the US and Israel is only going to grow - it's hard to bomb someone into loving you. Just see Iraq, Libya or Syria. How did the US and the west benefit from their "victories"?
the focus of the US and the west is of course always China so China has to win that war at a time and place of its choosing rather than getting distracted like the US. It's hard to imagine China winning a war against the US if the battlefield is the middle east.
as for North Korea's nuclear program, unlike many people assume, China is actually very adamantly against it even if China is a treaty ally with North Korea (the only such security treaty China has with any country). However, Kim realized it is the final insurance policy against a US/S Korea invasion. He acquired the bomb over the strong opposition of both China and Russia but now the US wouldn't even think of making a wrong move in the pennisular. This is deterrence.
“The masses awakening”…do you know that has repeated endlessly for 20 years at least? As has the speculation that Israel has only “x” number of years to survive. Those of us who are older have taken these chits to the bank and they’re still worthless.
Don’t be deluded into thinking that what you write will come to pass. The existence of Israel and the US are co-terminus.
The wandering Jew has controlled all US presidents since at least Clinton. It is possible the next will be a Jew (someone like Bloomberg). When the successor bill to HR6696 is reintroduced, then passed in the end, you will realize that all that is written here will be illegal. Only the punishment is unclear. It’s being worked out by the controllers. What a great time to be a Jew!
you are unfortunately right the jews are tightening the leash in the west, starting with the US. with the passage of the "anti-semitism" bill, the US regime is essentially conflating anti-zionism with anti-semitism and criminalizing any speech or action against the jewish state. quite literally, jews will be treated as an exceptional class in the US as the same protection is not afforded to any other ethnic or religious groups including protestant whites. you can be anti-american but not anti-jew. the regime will enforce it by policing every one of your social media account and personal communications. welcome to 1984 the US gulag
The latest reports on Iran, if borne out, will establish your prescience and rare objectivity. The handwringing on the “failure” of Russia and China to “solve” the problem of the west and the Jew is a mixture of deflection and tacit admission of the West’s defeat.
There really are too many substacks — and not enough good ones. Glad to see you on Unz.
I strongly suspect that with the latest attack by Israel on Iran, Iran will now proceed to develop a nuclear deterrent within the next year or two. The clearest lesson to learn from this brazen attack, and given the failure of the nuclear powers to obey their side of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty over the last couple of decades, is that nuclear weapons are a necessary part of a country's survival strategy. I'd call myself, as a New Zealander an "anti-nuclear peacenik" since the 1980's BUT I have come to the conclusion that, given the nuclear powers are unwilling to act responsibility that a modest nuclear capability is reasonable for mid-powers. (I'd still oppose NZ acquiring them as there is simply no need for us as a small-power).
that's what a cold-eyed reasoning would suggest. I am totally in support of global ban of nuclear weapons as a threat to humanity like global warming. But no one will trust the others in a classic prisoner's dilemma. The treachery seen in the US/Iran nuclear negotiation is enough to dissuade any rational players to trust the good faith of the other. the US is among the least trustworthy major powers as it has practically broken every single major bilateral and multilateral commitments it has made from UN laws, INF treaty, not an inch east NATO expansion, one China policy, etc. It also repeatedly launched unprovoked wars of aggression under false pretence - from Afganistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya.
in the absence of trust, a global Mexican standoff may be the best solution to discourage nuclear brinkmanship. N Korea understood it very early on, same with Israel, and I suspect Iran will come to the same realization. If they don't, may allah help them.
as for the small states living under US "nuclear umbrella", I never believe the US would go into a nuclear exchange with another major power on behalf of its vassals. JFK said the security of the slave is no security at all. Entrapment (when a small state holds a major state hostage via treaty obligation) has never worked in history - which master is willing to commit suicide for his slaves?
As a NZer I both fought against being under the US nuclear umbrella in the 1980s and still do now - though the peace movement seems to have disappeared so there is unsufficient domestic pressure on our government for them not to "snuggle up"to its US friends. I can't for the life of me see either the rationale or the ethics behind such a perspective. It's either total foolishness or extraordinary behind the scenes pressure - probably both.
my ongoing hypothesis is most western leaders are coopted by the US, especially the 5 eyes and NATO members. of course, there could be the odd ball from the left field occasionally like Viktor Orban, but even that feels like controlled opposition. electoral politics automatically lend itself to manipulation and capture by the dark elements in the national security deep state. political meddling is hardly limited to the adversaries - remember Kissinger's truism "to be America's friend is dangerous, to be its ally is fatal".
I do think NZ is largely immune from any fallout of global turbulence, barring some remarkably stupid move. Peter Thiele getting a NZ residence is a good indicator even some of the darkest forces believe NZ will be spared of a global conflict. I hope for your sake NZ will not elect a single IQ low-wit like scott morrison who managed to destroy any prospect of aussie neutrality and security.
Great analysis, but we must also include the desperation of the failing West as a motivating factor. We are in the midst of the greatest power shift the world has ever seen and possibly will ever see. From where I sit the Ukraine war, the Gaza Genocide and now this war are last ditch efforts to check the decline, when even now they are accelerating the decline of the West.
Whom the gods destroy they first of all stupefy and then make mad.
the Israeli adventure with Iran will be a strategic disaster in the long run. The west has lost its final fig leaf when it supports the open genocide of israel, which is the latest european colonial project, no more and no less. As you alluded, karma and god work in mysterious ways. when the europeans and later americans put israel in the middle east chessboard as a pawn and spear into the eurasian heartland, they probably never thought it would turn out to be the last nail on its coffin.
the point I'm making in the essay is Iran didn't have to be the sacrificial lamb to take down israel if it is strategically and tactically more astute. The lack of determination and a cold-eyed understanding of jewish/US duplicity have extracted its pound of flesh. I hope people elsewhere wake up and understand there is no deal with the devil. Like Chairman Mao said, revolution is not a dinner party. You only get what you want through struggle and strength.
We are all getting a lesson in how ruthless human behavior can be when there is so much at stake and how dangerous it is when too much power is in the wrong hands.
The Muslim and Hindu countries are cursed to be bedeviled by religious politics that leads to humongous corruption and waste that leads to sectarians looking away at the corrupt deals of the religious establishment out of pure sectarian envy stoked by the religious state apparatus - classical example Indias hugely corrupt acquisition of the Rafale fighters which was defended to the hilt by the Hindu religious nuts out of rage against Muslims. The Iranian IRGC is hugely corrupt and inept and the country is compromised by westoids who make up at least half the population (In India it is probably 80-90% of the population) who are suckers for western visas and the comforts of the west. A significant part of the leadership close to the Ayatollah and the IRGC leadership are themselves compromised because their children and kith and kin are US citizens and are integrated into the Democratic-Republican ruling class apparatus of the US. This prevents the countries from thinking 'civilisationally' which is key to long term survival. The advantage of Russia under Putin China under Xi and North Korea under Kim (which is no more communist Korea but 'free and independent' Korea) is that they are able to think civilisationally. Kim didnt fall into the degenerate uncultured Freemason deceiver Trump's attempt to gull him into a deal and he seemed to have seen his deceit through. Extreme brutality awaits the Muslim states as the Solomonite Western royals and upper class, Masons and Jesuits advance towards the third temple and the creation of Greater Israel from Egypt all the way through the Levant the Arabian Gulf Persia Central Asia Ukraine and Crimea. I hope Putin and Xi are not fooled by western negotiations because all countries in Eastern Europe are being revolutionised with woke Talmudic puppets (just see what's happening in Romania and Moldova and the laws being passed in both countries) propped up as presidents and prime ministers Orthodoxy being prosecuted bioweapon labs targeting Slavic genome planted all over and the mother of all wickedities - a massive $10 billion military base being built ground up in Romania for that final decapitation of Russia and then China (there is a dispute in the western oligarchy with regard to which country should be taken first - that's all - they will come for both). The Temple of Solomon has been waging war against humanity since the French and American revolutions and if Russia and China keel over 95% of humanity will go under Nohaide Laws as slaves or be put to death.
appreciate the perspective. I think this summarizes the deeper context of the war of civilizations we are witnessing. I don't completely agree that the chihuahua states in eastern europe are good examples to show Russia or China are at the mercy of similar "color revolutions" though it came close for Russia before Putin (you can argue, even the first decade of Putin's rule). The vassal states in eastern europe are desperate to come under the NATO "collective security" umbrella whose validity is yet to be tested. but it is the fate of weak small states to want the "security of the slave" as JFK put it.
the $10 billion military base in Romania is just a big juicy target to be decimated, hardly a platform for "decapitation of Russia and China". If that is their goal, they are just delusional and stupid. If $10 billion can take care of either Russia or China, the US wouldn't need a trillion dollar defense budget or require 5% GDP on mil spending for its vassals.
of coure, the genome-targeted bioweapon is a serious risk but the US already had the painful lesson of boomerang from its COVID attack on China. the US itself suffered the highest deaths from COVID, a fine product from Fort Derrick. the evil master is Marchiavellian but bad at science, I guess.
with regard to Iran and India, I just happened to respond to another reader the following, which I think addresses your point as well:
"I think Iran needs to decide where it wants to go. Iran is an internally fractured country and not a very astute geopolitical player. Russia and China certainly have their preferred outcomes for the conflict but I doubt they will shape the outcome too proactively. There is an old Chinese proverb "a forced melon is not sweet".
If Iran realizes the value of a clean break with the west and closer collaboration with Russia and China, it will be embraced with open arms. But if the regime continues its indecisive and compromising course, it probably would be more a liability than asset, the way India is. There is a reason Iran and India have been cozying up with each other as both want to sit on the fence and maximize benefits from the two opposing camps. But fence-sitters, especially weak and unwise ones, are more likely to turn out as the trampled grass when elephants fight".
In addition, Iran has a massive fifth column of westoids, as you pointed out. I doubt the country is a stable partner with such internal polarization. The snitching and traitors from within would give any potential partner cause for closer collaboration.
With India, it's more clear cut - it is not to be trusted by Russia or China though Russia seems desperate to keep its traditional influence alive there. india wouldn't know loyalty if it hits the country in the face. the country is a fence sitter since inception and has always put its western masters on a pedestal. the Indians seem to harbor a secret delusion that they could rule the west one day by sneaking up to western "democracies" the same way Rishi Sunak landed the PM-ship of india's long time master. good luck to the indians and their potential victims.
Mossad is all over Iran https://x.com/RT_com/status/1934253646402760717
it's been like this for decades. the traitors and snitches will never be weeded out as over half of the population secretly want to go back to the days before 1979.
This Post from @RT_com has been withheld in United Kingdom, European Union in response to a legal demand
>>Israel detonating CAR BOMBS in Tehran in tandem with missile strikes — IRNA
Agency claims 'at least 5 bombs' exploded
'Mossad agents are doing wonderful job' — Israeli author Amir Tsarfati
>>
Plus some picture. Try something like "Tunnelbear" Free for 2GB per months, so switch off when no longer needed. Before that Apply "forget about this site" or equivalent to x.com in your browsers history.
Israel and the jewish people are the "Singularity of Evil" in the world today.
Certainly Zionists (both Jewish and Christian) who practice and condone brutal crimes -- including genocide -- against Palestinians, other Arab people and Iranians can be labeled a "Singularity of Evil," but this doesn't apply across the board to the Jewish people as a whole. There are many Jews and Jewish groups (like Jewish Voice for Peace, Not in Our Name, B'Tselem, et.al. who condemn and work against Israel's aggressive, criminal, behavior, etc.
The Christian zionists are just stupid or poorly informed people being manipulated by their Jewish masters.
"Pro-palestine" groups like Jewish voices for peace are actually just trying to run the Palestine movement into the ground by making it incoherent and excessively liberal.
Sweeping generalizations aren't very persuasive. Okay, elements of truth in the first sentence above, but there are CZ "believers" in or who have been in powerful positions who are not stupid (Pompeo, Huckabee, et.al.). No question that Israeli Zionists have been cultivating and "managing" Christian Zionists for the "cause" for decades tho. Your second paragraph is sort of a mindless assertion . . . it doesn't really have anything to do with what has and is happening. You don't appear to be or sound like a serious political analyst.
I understand your response, but they are the exception to the norm...
agreed. there are many jewish voices with conscience and humanity like Norman Finkelstein, Ilan Pappe, Jeffrey Sachs, Chomsky, Max Blumenthal, but unfortunately they are a small powerless minority. The majority of the jewish population is openly supportive of the genocide and destruction the zionist state is waging against its neighbors. Beyond that, they are working overtime to extract and exploit the hosts they parasite on. of course, to the jewish financiers and oligarchs, that is even more important than the zionist project. the west is in a funny predictment where they are fighting wars on behalf of the jews at the same time being sucked dry by their jewish rentier overlords.
They got rid of Assad and the whole Muslim world was cheering. Now they're getting rid of Khamenei and the same low IQ Muslim hypocrites are crying crocodile tears🤣...I'm sick of low IQ third world Muslims as much as I'm sick of CPC, Wumaos, Zionists and Neocons. Just get it over with. Many Persians are welcoming a change..
Im not a scientist but you may find this interesting.
It might be that Iran has actually been trying to develop nuclear weapons.
A long article but the tldr is Iran has quadrupled its volume of 60% enriched uranium up to +400kg in the past year.
There doesn't seem to be a peaceful purpose for this eg. nuclear deterrence is likely.
https://open.substack.com/pub/pete843/p/war-with-iran?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=9eop3
Arguably Iran should have started sooner but better late than never.
Latest news: Putin has offered Khamenei asylum..😂 will he be roommates wt Assad then.
Hey @oliver1971! This is your first piece I'm not in absolute concurrence with you, but that's besides the point. I do have a sizzling question for you though!
What's up with (as of last night 5-6, perhaps more since) the repeated Y20s landing in Tehran and areas in eastern Iran with their transponders switched off? I'm guessing (hoping) HQ series air defense deliveries, but that's pure speculation. What are you hearing, if anything?
first of all, thanks for the trust. I have received many comments from readers who probably have similar questions regarding my arguments in the essay. I intend to write a follow up piece to offer more perspectives for discussion.
regarding the Y20 landings, I heard some noises as well but haven't seen any official verification. There are also rumors about Chinese cargo ships heading to Iran with transponders off. But I have my doubts as high end HQ air defense systems are not plug and play platforms. Ususally months of training would be required, especially since existing Iranian air defense mainly comes from Russia and has compatibility issues with HQ series. China is politically friendly with Iran but not militarily close like Russia.
I'll share some observations on China's perspectives regarding Iran that are widely disseminated on Chinese social media in my follow up piece. Net net I doubt China will play a major military role at this stage.