Xu said, “in the nuclear game, there are no quick wins. You need to have strategic stamina, focusing on doing just one thing for 20, 30 years.”
I love the term"strategic stamina." Applicable to so many fields with great potential for good things happening. If only the West could set some worthy priorities with the stamina to pursue them. China's achievements should be an inspiration to the rest of the world.
this is why long term thinking and persistence is so important in tackling big issues. One of the most important advantages of the Chinese one-party system is the stability and continuity of policy framework to pursue critical large projects like these. There are things that cannot be left to private enterprise to undertake for reasons around cost, risk and planning horizons. Whole of nation efforts can happen much more easily in a stable political system not suject to election cycles and whims of individual politicians.
I believe China is on to something with their one-party system. However, I think it is more than simply one-party providing consistency and stability: it is also the political structure within which that party operates. For example, Hua Bin's explanation of how foreign service officers are trained and selected. This seems to apply across the board in China - not only government but media, academia, the sciences, technology, etc. - all highly competitive, merit-based and devoted to long-term vision and planning.
China has gone through great cataclysmic changes over the years to reach this level of human governance. Such change and the resulting stability is not easily attained nor quickly without great sacrifice. I do not believe the West has the potential any longer to arrive at this end on their own, as not only has the system been thoroughly corrupted but it has resulted in a population that has lost the ability think long-term, plan and gain the strength and patience to endure.
This is why I believe China has the responsibility to take the lead in guiding the world towards the structure necessary to provide the foundation for a stable and prosperous future for mankind.
I agree. Of course, there are many things to be improved in China but the country is a work in progress and moving in the right direction. The west feels static at this point (end of history?) and is regressing, in many ways. Alan Bloom, the American sociologist, wrote the "Closing of the American Mind" back in the 80s and the malaise started back then already. Things simply got worse in the last 4 decades - same for Europe. In the pursuit of political correctness and cultural wars, the west has lost touch with the reality and pursuit of truth. Decadence has set in. Absent a true revolution, the trajectory is not good.
This is a very interesting point as lack of continuity of government in the West is a big issue as political parties are so adversarial, reactionary and in constant competition to be the alpha dog blocking real progress. Western cultures are blocked as long as our governments are dominated by the greedy vested interests they serve.
I am very interested in Chinese international diplomacy as diplomats appear very experienced and skilled. How do they come to be in their positions? How are they chosen? How much of their skill set is cultural.
As a Westerner it is a constant embarrassment where we reject real diplomacy and it is left to ignorant hack politicians totally unqualified to be in these positions.
I take it Confucian principles influence international relations?
I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on these issues.
this is a great question. The west has been smearing Chinese diplomats as wolf warriors but if they listen to what they say and how they say it, it's the complete opposite of such characterization. In most cases, I find them to be too subtle for my taste (which is quite direct, I confess).
Across China, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs runs a dozen or so universities that specialize in diplomacy, foreign languages, development economics, etc. Then top graduates are selected into the diplomatic corp, usually starting from hardship posts in farflung countries in south Pacific or sub-Sahara Africa. Diplomats are required to speak the language of the country they are posted to. For example in Croatia, most diplomats are expected to speak Croatian (something locals wonder since most diplomats from other countries don't speak local tongue).
The promotion process is long and arduous, often taking decades. There is no such thing as patronage appointments like the US. Diplomatic posts are rewarded primarily on performance and track record.
Wang Yi, the Foreign Minister, was a graduate of my own alma mater - the Beijing Foreign Studies Institute. He studies Japanese and was posted to Japan, eventually reaching ambassadorship there. Then he was appointed to manage cross strait affairs with Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macaus before being appointed Foreign Minister. He has been a professional diplomat for 45 years. This is very similar to Sergei Lavrov, who is a consumate prof as well. The Chinese and Russians take politics and diplomacy seriously.
Reminds me of the Manhattan project, during WW2, American scientist worked in the deserts of New Mexico to develop the first atomic bomb. Here Chinese physicists work in the Gobi desert to develop the world’s first thorium reactor!
Thank you so much for sharing this good news and bringing a ray of hope at such a dark time when we see nothing but misfortune everywhere.
Let's hope the waste is really inert, because due to the misuse of uranium waste our planet and the atmospheric layer that surrounds it have already been highly contaminated since the first U.S. nuclear test followed by their use as weapons of immense destruction in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
one key advantage of thorium reactor is it cannot be weaponized so there is much less control and regulation to worry about, potentially spreading the benefits to a much broader slice of global population.
I've been waiting for this for a long time, ever since I first started studying nuclear power some 20 years ago. The implication here are nothing short of staggering.
What you're seeing here is the power source for a high-speed rail network covering all of Central Asia - a major component of the New Silk Road (It's actually called Belt and Road, but I think New Silk Road sounds more romantic). Also the power source for the new industrial centers that will be built along the way, as well as power for remote areas where transmission lines aren't practical.
That's just the beginning though. Inherently safe modular reactors will be game changers. In the same way cell phones eliminated copper line technology, these reactors will obsolesce the electric transmission grid. Instead of huge inherently dangerous reactors with long transmission lines, you'll have small local reactors with much smaller transmission loops. This means large scale blackouts will be a thing of the past, plus it frees up space in dense urban areas because you no longer need the right-of-ways for transmission lines. This will probably mark the end of electricity exports as well, since it will be cheaper to just install more capacity locally on an as needed basis.
China has huge coal reserves which they burn to make electricity, but coal is also a source of thorium. Obviously I haven't run a cost analysis, but I would guess existing coal mines will provide enough thorium to meet their requirements, so no need to open any new mines. Also, since you're no longer burning coal you can make motor fuel from it using the Fischer-Tropsch process powered by an on-site thorium reactor.
This is definitely something to watch. We're still years away of course, but as they say, time flies when you're having fun!
I think there is a grand strategy very much like what you are describing. China is fully behind electrification and wants to bring it across the Euroasia continent. In fact, China has developed the most extensive ultra high voltage transmission system that transport electricity from western China to the eastern coast. It could be done in an even bigger scale. Also as you hypothesize, a more distributed footprint closer to end user could be done as well. Thorium reactors are inherently safer than uranium so hopefully the safety threshold can be lowered for all.
Does nuclear fusion create radioactive waste like depleted uranium? If a country has vast empty spaces like Russia it has a better chance of "hiding" away the devastating effects of depleted uranium. Thorium has much promise and if my memory is correct Russia was involved in research in the same line and there were some translated Russian blogs saying that they had achieved some success with the technology. As a common man and entrepreneur i am waiting for a different thing - the CIA-free HarmonyOS Next, its ecosystem of productivity apps and Huawei globalising that RDBMS which it created ground up to replace US made databases. If China can do the full stack from chips to hardware to software in the next 5-7 years and outdo the western rentier products - the effect on humanity will be more dramatic than anything else. It will actually usher a new age as opposed to the Alice Bailey-Blavatsky new age that is almost upon and around us.
both the Russians and Americans pursued thorium reactors in the 70s and 80s but gave up as the science was indeed too hard. Tech has progressed today to the point Chinese scientists can build upon what their precessesors in other countries have done and take it to the next level. China is developing the full tech stack as we speak. I suspect it will reach parity sooner than 5 to 7 years. In many areas, China is taking new innovative approaches to leapfrog existing tech - e.g. RISC-V chips, photonic chips, etc. Tech breakthrough is a function of investment and talent. China is committed and has abundance of both. In addition, it has a stable political and policy environment to enable long term planning and execution. I am quite confident we'll see an explosion of innovations in the coming decade.
Fusion is not fission. It produces a lot less radioactive by-products. Although there is a substantial number of folks in the west that don't believe in the existence of either, or that the earth is flat, who think these are all CIA/mossad psyop which is kind of ironic as they're the very same normative sheeps who have succumbed to their propaganda inadvertently. Cognitively infiltrated, so to speak.
it's actually funny how many anti-science people there are in the US despite being a leading tech powerhouse. Speaks volumes about the basic education system there. Also the cognitive infiltration - I call it a dumbing down of the population for better social control by the elite. Sheeple who don't know they are sheeple or what the word even means:)
The horrible Anglo education system can be understood by working with them - they deeply lack true technical skills and the production castes perennially run from sensation to sensation and spectacle to spectacle - these people are so non-serious that along with the lack of skills the fun oriented work ethic means you can get nothing done. So employers in Anglo countries routinely use visa vulnerable indentured labor all over the place. In fact if you see the syllabus of German technical schools and the actual real world nature of the courses in German technical universities - especially the public universities - they still offer actual skills that matter and are truly world class (private schools in Germany are again diploma mills to fool gullible foreigners). As a media entrepreneur i have employed youngsters from top media schools in UK like Bournemouth and found to my utter dismay that these kids have no critical thinking skills or even basic sentence construction to work in the media. This is why I believe what you said of "diplomas are a courteous bestowing not indicators of accomplishment" as true for the entire Anglo world.
one key obstacle in any serious reindustralization of the US is the lack of skilled labor from a dysfunctional education system. coffee baristas and burger flippers don't automatically make ship mechanic or battery engineers. the education deficits are generational. China, also Russia, graduate order of magnitude STEM students from their education systems. the west seems no longer serious about producing technical talents. if they also don't graduate good liberal arts students who can write and reason better than chatgpt, then it's hard to envision their future.
thanks for sending the link. I have been reading Nicola Tesla's biographies and one thing that struck me is how far capitalists (like J P Morgan) went to stop innovations that could hurt their commercial interests but benefit the human race as a whole.
We see this again and again - oil companies supressing development of free and clean energy (including by discrediting cold fusion), big pharma supressing cancer cures, etc. etc. I think it is a great thing many researchers and scientists in China can puruse truly ground breaking innovations in state institutions like China Academy of Sciences that can benefit all. My hope is more scientists globally can operate in non profit driven environment in pursuit of researches beneficial to the planet, not just a select few.
This is good news. Since China's electricity consumption is on the order of 10 MILLION gigawatts per year, it will need all the new technology it can create. It'll be interesting to see buildout targets in the power mix for this new technology.
Fascinating read! I’m Harrison, an ex fine dining industry line cook. My stack "The Secret Ingredient" adapts hit restaurant recipes (mostly NYC and L.A.) for easy home cooking. Dm me if interested in a recommendation swap — we’re growing fast!
Xu said, “in the nuclear game, there are no quick wins. You need to have strategic stamina, focusing on doing just one thing for 20, 30 years.”
I love the term"strategic stamina." Applicable to so many fields with great potential for good things happening. If only the West could set some worthy priorities with the stamina to pursue them. China's achievements should be an inspiration to the rest of the world.
this is why long term thinking and persistence is so important in tackling big issues. One of the most important advantages of the Chinese one-party system is the stability and continuity of policy framework to pursue critical large projects like these. There are things that cannot be left to private enterprise to undertake for reasons around cost, risk and planning horizons. Whole of nation efforts can happen much more easily in a stable political system not suject to election cycles and whims of individual politicians.
I believe China is on to something with their one-party system. However, I think it is more than simply one-party providing consistency and stability: it is also the political structure within which that party operates. For example, Hua Bin's explanation of how foreign service officers are trained and selected. This seems to apply across the board in China - not only government but media, academia, the sciences, technology, etc. - all highly competitive, merit-based and devoted to long-term vision and planning.
China has gone through great cataclysmic changes over the years to reach this level of human governance. Such change and the resulting stability is not easily attained nor quickly without great sacrifice. I do not believe the West has the potential any longer to arrive at this end on their own, as not only has the system been thoroughly corrupted but it has resulted in a population that has lost the ability think long-term, plan and gain the strength and patience to endure.
This is why I believe China has the responsibility to take the lead in guiding the world towards the structure necessary to provide the foundation for a stable and prosperous future for mankind.
I agree. Of course, there are many things to be improved in China but the country is a work in progress and moving in the right direction. The west feels static at this point (end of history?) and is regressing, in many ways. Alan Bloom, the American sociologist, wrote the "Closing of the American Mind" back in the 80s and the malaise started back then already. Things simply got worse in the last 4 decades - same for Europe. In the pursuit of political correctness and cultural wars, the west has lost touch with the reality and pursuit of truth. Decadence has set in. Absent a true revolution, the trajectory is not good.
This is a very interesting point as lack of continuity of government in the West is a big issue as political parties are so adversarial, reactionary and in constant competition to be the alpha dog blocking real progress. Western cultures are blocked as long as our governments are dominated by the greedy vested interests they serve.
I am very interested in Chinese international diplomacy as diplomats appear very experienced and skilled. How do they come to be in their positions? How are they chosen? How much of their skill set is cultural.
As a Westerner it is a constant embarrassment where we reject real diplomacy and it is left to ignorant hack politicians totally unqualified to be in these positions.
I take it Confucian principles influence international relations?
I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on these issues.
this is a great question. The west has been smearing Chinese diplomats as wolf warriors but if they listen to what they say and how they say it, it's the complete opposite of such characterization. In most cases, I find them to be too subtle for my taste (which is quite direct, I confess).
Across China, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs runs a dozen or so universities that specialize in diplomacy, foreign languages, development economics, etc. Then top graduates are selected into the diplomatic corp, usually starting from hardship posts in farflung countries in south Pacific or sub-Sahara Africa. Diplomats are required to speak the language of the country they are posted to. For example in Croatia, most diplomats are expected to speak Croatian (something locals wonder since most diplomats from other countries don't speak local tongue).
The promotion process is long and arduous, often taking decades. There is no such thing as patronage appointments like the US. Diplomatic posts are rewarded primarily on performance and track record.
Wang Yi, the Foreign Minister, was a graduate of my own alma mater - the Beijing Foreign Studies Institute. He studies Japanese and was posted to Japan, eventually reaching ambassadorship there. Then he was appointed to manage cross strait affairs with Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macaus before being appointed Foreign Minister. He has been a professional diplomat for 45 years. This is very similar to Sergei Lavrov, who is a consumate prof as well. The Chinese and Russians take politics and diplomacy seriously.
Reminds me of the Manhattan project, during WW2, American scientist worked in the deserts of New Mexico to develop the first atomic bomb. Here Chinese physicists work in the Gobi desert to develop the world’s first thorium reactor!
Thank you so much for sharing this good news and bringing a ray of hope at such a dark time when we see nothing but misfortune everywhere.
Let's hope the waste is really inert, because due to the misuse of uranium waste our planet and the atmospheric layer that surrounds it have already been highly contaminated since the first U.S. nuclear test followed by their use as weapons of immense destruction in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
one key advantage of thorium reactor is it cannot be weaponized so there is much less control and regulation to worry about, potentially spreading the benefits to a much broader slice of global population.
I've been waiting for this for a long time, ever since I first started studying nuclear power some 20 years ago. The implication here are nothing short of staggering.
What you're seeing here is the power source for a high-speed rail network covering all of Central Asia - a major component of the New Silk Road (It's actually called Belt and Road, but I think New Silk Road sounds more romantic). Also the power source for the new industrial centers that will be built along the way, as well as power for remote areas where transmission lines aren't practical.
That's just the beginning though. Inherently safe modular reactors will be game changers. In the same way cell phones eliminated copper line technology, these reactors will obsolesce the electric transmission grid. Instead of huge inherently dangerous reactors with long transmission lines, you'll have small local reactors with much smaller transmission loops. This means large scale blackouts will be a thing of the past, plus it frees up space in dense urban areas because you no longer need the right-of-ways for transmission lines. This will probably mark the end of electricity exports as well, since it will be cheaper to just install more capacity locally on an as needed basis.
China has huge coal reserves which they burn to make electricity, but coal is also a source of thorium. Obviously I haven't run a cost analysis, but I would guess existing coal mines will provide enough thorium to meet their requirements, so no need to open any new mines. Also, since you're no longer burning coal you can make motor fuel from it using the Fischer-Tropsch process powered by an on-site thorium reactor.
This is definitely something to watch. We're still years away of course, but as they say, time flies when you're having fun!
I think there is a grand strategy very much like what you are describing. China is fully behind electrification and wants to bring it across the Euroasia continent. In fact, China has developed the most extensive ultra high voltage transmission system that transport electricity from western China to the eastern coast. It could be done in an even bigger scale. Also as you hypothesize, a more distributed footprint closer to end user could be done as well. Thorium reactors are inherently safer than uranium so hopefully the safety threshold can be lowered for all.
I forgot to mention, this is probably the future of marine transportation as well.
Chinese shipping companies are already exploring thorium-powered marine transportation for their next gen mega ships.
Does nuclear fusion create radioactive waste like depleted uranium? If a country has vast empty spaces like Russia it has a better chance of "hiding" away the devastating effects of depleted uranium. Thorium has much promise and if my memory is correct Russia was involved in research in the same line and there were some translated Russian blogs saying that they had achieved some success with the technology. As a common man and entrepreneur i am waiting for a different thing - the CIA-free HarmonyOS Next, its ecosystem of productivity apps and Huawei globalising that RDBMS which it created ground up to replace US made databases. If China can do the full stack from chips to hardware to software in the next 5-7 years and outdo the western rentier products - the effect on humanity will be more dramatic than anything else. It will actually usher a new age as opposed to the Alice Bailey-Blavatsky new age that is almost upon and around us.
both the Russians and Americans pursued thorium reactors in the 70s and 80s but gave up as the science was indeed too hard. Tech has progressed today to the point Chinese scientists can build upon what their precessesors in other countries have done and take it to the next level. China is developing the full tech stack as we speak. I suspect it will reach parity sooner than 5 to 7 years. In many areas, China is taking new innovative approaches to leapfrog existing tech - e.g. RISC-V chips, photonic chips, etc. Tech breakthrough is a function of investment and talent. China is committed and has abundance of both. In addition, it has a stable political and policy environment to enable long term planning and execution. I am quite confident we'll see an explosion of innovations in the coming decade.
Sooner than 5-7 years…one hopes this is true. Wonderfully informative article — thanks.
Fusion is not fission. It produces a lot less radioactive by-products. Although there is a substantial number of folks in the west that don't believe in the existence of either, or that the earth is flat, who think these are all CIA/mossad psyop which is kind of ironic as they're the very same normative sheeps who have succumbed to their propaganda inadvertently. Cognitively infiltrated, so to speak.
it's actually funny how many anti-science people there are in the US despite being a leading tech powerhouse. Speaks volumes about the basic education system there. Also the cognitive infiltration - I call it a dumbing down of the population for better social control by the elite. Sheeple who don't know they are sheeple or what the word even means:)
In the US education system — there are no coercive techniques. Diplomas are a matter of courteous bestowing, not indicators of accomplishment.
The only control exercised by the US state is the most critical — media.
Actually government and media is symbiotic — perhaps identical. After all, the same small sliver of people control both.
The horrible Anglo education system can be understood by working with them - they deeply lack true technical skills and the production castes perennially run from sensation to sensation and spectacle to spectacle - these people are so non-serious that along with the lack of skills the fun oriented work ethic means you can get nothing done. So employers in Anglo countries routinely use visa vulnerable indentured labor all over the place. In fact if you see the syllabus of German technical schools and the actual real world nature of the courses in German technical universities - especially the public universities - they still offer actual skills that matter and are truly world class (private schools in Germany are again diploma mills to fool gullible foreigners). As a media entrepreneur i have employed youngsters from top media schools in UK like Bournemouth and found to my utter dismay that these kids have no critical thinking skills or even basic sentence construction to work in the media. This is why I believe what you said of "diplomas are a courteous bestowing not indicators of accomplishment" as true for the entire Anglo world.
one key obstacle in any serious reindustralization of the US is the lack of skilled labor from a dysfunctional education system. coffee baristas and burger flippers don't automatically make ship mechanic or battery engineers. the education deficits are generational. China, also Russia, graduate order of magnitude STEM students from their education systems. the west seems no longer serious about producing technical talents. if they also don't graduate good liberal arts students who can write and reason better than chatgpt, then it's hard to envision their future.
The potential for Thorium has been an underground legend for over half a century.
Ayn Rand met with Robert Oppenheimer to discuss and her novel hero John GALT was a hidden message about the G.A.L.T. thorium energy system.
For some history see https://aim4truth.org/2018/11/21/galt-the-best-kept-secret-in-the-world-that-could-free-humanity-with-unlimited-free-energy/
thanks for sending the link. I have been reading Nicola Tesla's biographies and one thing that struck me is how far capitalists (like J P Morgan) went to stop innovations that could hurt their commercial interests but benefit the human race as a whole.
We see this again and again - oil companies supressing development of free and clean energy (including by discrediting cold fusion), big pharma supressing cancer cures, etc. etc. I think it is a great thing many researchers and scientists in China can puruse truly ground breaking innovations in state institutions like China Academy of Sciences that can benefit all. My hope is more scientists globally can operate in non profit driven environment in pursuit of researches beneficial to the planet, not just a select few.
This might be the most important topic of the 21 century.
This is good news. Since China's electricity consumption is on the order of 10 MILLION gigawatts per year, it will need all the new technology it can create. It'll be interesting to see buildout targets in the power mix for this new technology.
Your remarks on Trump in the start made me no want to read your article. It found something about it elsewhere. Bue ...
Fascinating read! I’m Harrison, an ex fine dining industry line cook. My stack "The Secret Ingredient" adapts hit restaurant recipes (mostly NYC and L.A.) for easy home cooking. Dm me if interested in a recommendation swap — we’re growing fast!
check us out:
https://thesecretingredient.substack.com