I think you are right, Hua Bin, that China will not do much to help Iran. The real reason is that -- at the moment -- China is winning in the critical economic struggle with the Rest of the World.
China is the Workshop of the World - a role that the UK played in the 19th Century and the US in the 20th Century. Clearly, that brings great advantages to the leading country. We live in a world that was unimaginable even a quarter century ago -- a world in which Volkswagen builds more cars in China than in Germany ... and builds them there cheaper & better too. All the Euro "Green Energy" depends on Chinese wind turbines and Chinese solar panels. Even Russia is more like a developing country as far as China is concerned -- trading commodities like oil & food to China in exchange for sophisticated manufactured goods.
There is no reason for China which is winning the long game of economic supremacy to roll the dice on military activity where surprises & reversals are always possible. The last thing China wants is for Iran to trigger a wider war which could be very damaging to China, and possibly even thermonuclearly existential. It is very much in China's interest to see the Middle East calm down, not to throw fuel on the fire. Will China be able to contribute to defusing the situation in Iran? That is the real question!
wrt your question, I think China or Russia's power to mediate and defuse the situation is quite limited. Israel is a wild dog and not subject to rational persuasion. the only thing that might hold it back is physical limits like bunker buster bombs, refueling jets, and intel that the US supplies. as long as Israel has Trump in their pocket, they will do what they can get away with. It is Iran that has to hurt the jews badly enough for them to stop.
China and Russia will support diplomatically as they are doing now. I suspect covert and indirect military assistance will be made available as well such as Beidou satellite guidance for Iranian missiles, parts and components to keep the Iranina production going, and more purchase of oil.
China will certainly continue to use rare earth elements to chokehold the US war machine supplying the Israeli. this is an added reason for China to tighten the noose with critical minerals.
Unless things have changed radically in the last few weeks China is still by far the biggest trade partner with Israel, surely this could be used to, if not win with out fighting then, at least stop an ongoing genocide?
China has maintained normal trade with most countries, even the most adversarial ones. It is not Beijing's policy choice to weaponize trade but to your point, I also wish personally China would go with a BDS campaign against Israel.
Israeli trade with China is insignificant compared to USD transfers. China wouldn’t bother, just easier to let the natural conflict sort itself out and adapt to the outcome.
Natural conflict is not what ok would would call the twenty months of genocide and an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation but if that's the way you want to frame it enjoy your fantasy
I think the Chinese government has viewed trade as a normal relationship unless in war times or embargo situation. It is separated from value judgement.
Again I understand the sentiment and hopefully Israel will be punished by righteous people collectively. For example, I personally know a lot of people who simply don't want to have anything to do with that genocidal country and the inhabitants there. Some even resigned corporate directorship from Israel related companies.
But there has not been a trade embargo per se on Israel, even amongst Muslim countries as I understand. Hopefully we'll live in a more morally upright world at some point.
Thanks for the reply and it is the same in the UK, the majority of people believe that Israel should be boycotted, divested and sanctioned and yet those we elect go on supporting the entity. Good to hear your view.
You’re unfamiliar with history and some study would be advised before posting on this serious writer’s substack. You claim 20 months of genocide but this is low-q ignorance.
“Israel has fought a number of conflicts with various Arab forces, most notably in 1948–49, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2006, and 2023–present.” (Britannica).
i think the reader is referring to the genocide happening right now. technically what Israel did before didn't get categorized as genocide, but certainly the intention is there and there should be not debate it has been engaged in ethnic cleansing since its inception. I understand where he is coming from and wouldn't be too hard on the observation.
I would characterize israel as a terrorist state and a criminal regime from day 1 as the birth of the state was founded on terror (e.g. King David hotel bombing) and by terrorists (Irgun, Haganah, LEHI, and more). Likud originated from a terrorist organization similar to ISIS. the jews are the original creator of modern terrorism and the global leading practitioner for the past 7 decades. there are volumes on the subject that can fill shelves.
Winning without fighting is considered the most superior victory in Chinese military tradition. National power in today's world resides mainly in economic, trade and technological prowess, of course backed by hard power and an iron will.
Re: Myth#5 ... more like, if lacking the will to become involved in a messy proxy fight vs the US in Iran, and in the event Iran should falter, China will rather likely face the next one in Pakistan. That comparison might be worth expanding in more detail. Neither Iran nor Pakistan are perfect, Pakistan has participated in countless western-aligned Islamic terrorist schemes, and Pakistan has made deep ties to the US intel/geopolitical apparatus for several generations now. Nevertheless it enjoys the benefit of being directly adjacent to China, being opposed to India, and thus the "all weather partnership" quite naturally overlooks the complications.
very astutue observation on the next potential proxy fight in Pakistan. I think the recent India Pak war has some hallmarks already - there are reasonable speculations the "terrorist attacks" in India that triggered the war bear signs of false flag operation (e.g. the very slow reaction by Indian security forces in a high sensitive region, allowing that they could just be that incompetent).
I agree Pakistan has a very spotty record with the US national security deep state from the days of mujahideen but the same can be said about every Arab state and Turkey. I always find that neighborhood the most natural power peg on the planet. I'd love to hear someone smart to talk about how the Ottomans managed that place?
Pakistan is in a geopolitically critical region on China's border. It also has been a reliable partner. So China will have its back as long as needed. China is clear-eyed in the relationship and knows you seldom get a perfect partner in world affairs. A mutually beneficial relationship is always more stable than ideological purity or blind submission.
Excellent post, you've reassured my own thinking on this. Iran is a big boy, it wants to be independent and there's no harm in that. The Iranians believe they can overcome the west in this latest attempt and I believe they will. After the dust settles, Iran will be stronger, more united, more respected and free to a certain extent from military terrorism. The west, however, will continue on its downward course to oblivion.
wars of choice never pan out - a lesson the hegemon refuses to learn. the blowback has not even started. this is what you get from arrogant and unwise elite who don't understand history and don't think through important matters. the west is plagued with unethical and incompetent leadership and is unreformable. hence, the fall is inevitable.
Thanks for your convincing and informative post. It becomes an immense challenge to defend against the insane monster the West has become. I agree China will win the final showdown as the Empire has been suffering imperial overreach for the last forty years and there is much to be said for allowing it to burn itself out. Its revanchism is sociocidal totally indifferent to the consequences they must ultimately face.
"The US cannot conquer the world but it can ruin it." The open question now is how much more damage will it be allowed to do ?
I was very interested to read of the relations China has with its immediate neighbors.
Millions of us in the West, in defiance and contempt for our own governments look to China and Russia as the arbiters of world peace. Populations of the West have been orphaned and abandoned by our warmongering idiots and too many have yet to realize this cold hard fact.
a very deep Insight and explanation from the Chinese perspective...with new facts regarding Iran's illogical foolish foreign policies towards China and it's approach to India....I thank Mr. Hua Bin for this very interesting essay....learnt a lot today
"joining the Jews"-- inaccurate. "the Jews" makes it sound like all Jews are involved in the Zionist entities' brutal and illegal activities. They are not.
I know there are many pushbacks as the term "jews" seems too general and doesn't distinguish the good jews from the bad. People also use phrases such as "the few good Germans" to separate the good Germans and the bad germans in reference to the crimes committed in WW2. It is certainly more politically correct and palatable to use the term "zionist" instead.
that said, I use the term advisedly because the overwhelming jewish population in israel is supportive of the genocide, many even calling for more violent repressions. they don't distinguish Hamas from the good Palestanians. also you may not like it, but for me, Hamas is just a resistance force, not a terrorist group.
too few jews within Israel or outside, relative to the size of the race, have spoken out against the crimes being committed in their name. while I have uttermost respect for Normal Finkelstein, Ilan Pappe, Max Blumenthal, Jeffrey Sachs, Isreal Shahak (and I am sure I have missed some other good jews), I despise the group collectively as a matter of personal value. Others certainly don't have to share the sentiment. But I write what I believe.
the term zionist implies a tiny minority within a much larger group who don't share its beliefs, like the term Nazi is used when execusing collective german guilt. But most germans back then supported hitler and his extermination of the inferior races. same is the true with the japanese who cheered on its animal rampage across China, Korea and southeast Asia. I don't feel a need to fig leaf their collective guilt. I personally hope to see them on the receiving end of collective punishment.
International jewry includes anti-Israel voices. Jewish Voice for Peace , org. & If Not Now org., e.g., in the U.S., Medea Benjamin (example of high profile Jews in "peace" movement, e.g., Naturei Karta, religious anti-zionist jews (int'l).
If there is any hope of a successful response against these imperial wars, it will have to be international. And most likely the above groups being based in the middle class will not play the major role, because their interests differ from that of the global majority. That majority includes all faiths and those of no faith. Anti-zionist jews may be a tiny minority, but I'm sure there are many jews who may be tempted by Israel's wanton genocide to join them. Maybe better not to lump them altogether gratuitously in that case.
there are exceptions to every rule and I don't have the energy to qualify and footnote everyting I write. I also trust my readers to have sophistictaed and analytical minds so they will form their own opinions.
our disagreements are not over facts, but over semantics. Let's just agree to disagree.
Yet an overwhelming majority of Jews readily play the victim card as they participate in the burnt-offering Holohoax grifting ritual, amongst other subversive movements that they endorse as part-and-parcel of their core religious sacrament, whether it'd be pornography, sodomy, blood ritual, BLM, feminism, wokism, DEI, amongst others. And the same overwhelming majority of them also deny Jewish dominance of all major institutions across the west, be it out of disingenuity, connivance, or outright delusional ignorance.
Also, let's see what Hitler had to write about of the so-called anti-zionist Jews:
"To outward appearances it seemed as if only one group of Jews championed the Zionism movement, while the great majority disapproved of it, or even repudiated it. But an investigation of the situation showed that those outward appearances were purposely misleading. These outward appearances emerged from a mist of theories which had been produced for reasons of expediency, if not for purposes of downright deception. For that part of Jewry which was styled Liberal did not disown the Zionists as if they were not members of their race but rather as brother Jews who publicly professed their faith in an unpractical way, so as to create a danger for Jewry itself. Thus there was no real rift in their internal solidarity."
Jews is absolutely the correct term as their behavior has been consistent from the early Roman period. Read Stephen Mitford Goodson’s book “The Rise of Central Banking” for a 2000 year narrative. Zionists is merely a cover name for their activities.
One thing I feel the author fails to address is the roles of proxies. In the nuclear age, wars between peers are fought with proxies. For this reason China will need to engage its proxies against the West. Iran is one such player. China doesn't want to be surrounded by Western proxies. We see in Pakistan as China upgrades the defenses with the latest air assets. We will start seeing this in Iran also. My understanding is that China has been sending assets to Iran. It explains why the US has been hesitant in its attack on Iran. It's been several days now since Trump threaten Iran, and the movement of US assets to the Middle East.
I'm skeptical that israel has air superiority over Iran. We haven't seen that many bombings recently and the munitions seem relatively small. I think that what's tehran has likely been cruise missiles launched by Israeli jets outside of Iranian airspace.
Despite the factors that you mention, Hua, which I will assume are more or less correct, you are missing Iran's key role in the overland trade route, the new Silk Road, that China is building...If Iran comes under Western domination, that won't be allowed...Also, Iran is a major oil supplier to China, and that could be disrupted or raised drastically in price...I believe Xi understands all that, and will continue to supply Iran...apparently China is offsetting their oil purchases with the cost of these supplies...
Your description of the complexity of Iran-China relationship is edifying. Thinking perhaps their mutual relationship with Pakistan might open the door a bit wider.
Thank you! Very educational for a benighted westerner like me with a sometimes inflated notion of his own geopolitical understanding . Superb! "Go" to it, my friend!
I think you are right, Hua Bin, that China will not do much to help Iran. The real reason is that -- at the moment -- China is winning in the critical economic struggle with the Rest of the World.
China is the Workshop of the World - a role that the UK played in the 19th Century and the US in the 20th Century. Clearly, that brings great advantages to the leading country. We live in a world that was unimaginable even a quarter century ago -- a world in which Volkswagen builds more cars in China than in Germany ... and builds them there cheaper & better too. All the Euro "Green Energy" depends on Chinese wind turbines and Chinese solar panels. Even Russia is more like a developing country as far as China is concerned -- trading commodities like oil & food to China in exchange for sophisticated manufactured goods.
There is no reason for China which is winning the long game of economic supremacy to roll the dice on military activity where surprises & reversals are always possible. The last thing China wants is for Iran to trigger a wider war which could be very damaging to China, and possibly even thermonuclearly existential. It is very much in China's interest to see the Middle East calm down, not to throw fuel on the fire. Will China be able to contribute to defusing the situation in Iran? That is the real question!
wrt your question, I think China or Russia's power to mediate and defuse the situation is quite limited. Israel is a wild dog and not subject to rational persuasion. the only thing that might hold it back is physical limits like bunker buster bombs, refueling jets, and intel that the US supplies. as long as Israel has Trump in their pocket, they will do what they can get away with. It is Iran that has to hurt the jews badly enough for them to stop.
China and Russia will support diplomatically as they are doing now. I suspect covert and indirect military assistance will be made available as well such as Beidou satellite guidance for Iranian missiles, parts and components to keep the Iranina production going, and more purchase of oil.
China will certainly continue to use rare earth elements to chokehold the US war machine supplying the Israeli. this is an added reason for China to tighten the noose with critical minerals.
Unless things have changed radically in the last few weeks China is still by far the biggest trade partner with Israel, surely this could be used to, if not win with out fighting then, at least stop an ongoing genocide?
China has maintained normal trade with most countries, even the most adversarial ones. It is not Beijing's policy choice to weaponize trade but to your point, I also wish personally China would go with a BDS campaign against Israel.
Israeli trade with China is insignificant compared to USD transfers. China wouldn’t bother, just easier to let the natural conflict sort itself out and adapt to the outcome.
Natural conflict is not what ok would would call the twenty months of genocide and an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation but if that's the way you want to frame it enjoy your fantasy
I think the Chinese government has viewed trade as a normal relationship unless in war times or embargo situation. It is separated from value judgement.
Again I understand the sentiment and hopefully Israel will be punished by righteous people collectively. For example, I personally know a lot of people who simply don't want to have anything to do with that genocidal country and the inhabitants there. Some even resigned corporate directorship from Israel related companies.
But there has not been a trade embargo per se on Israel, even amongst Muslim countries as I understand. Hopefully we'll live in a more morally upright world at some point.
Thanks for the reply and it is the same in the UK, the majority of people believe that Israel should be boycotted, divested and sanctioned and yet those we elect go on supporting the entity. Good to hear your view.
You’re unfamiliar with history and some study would be advised before posting on this serious writer’s substack. You claim 20 months of genocide but this is low-q ignorance.
“Israel has fought a number of conflicts with various Arab forces, most notably in 1948–49, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2006, and 2023–present.” (Britannica).
Israel was proclaimed by Ben-Gurion on 5/14/48.
i think the reader is referring to the genocide happening right now. technically what Israel did before didn't get categorized as genocide, but certainly the intention is there and there should be not debate it has been engaged in ethnic cleansing since its inception. I understand where he is coming from and wouldn't be too hard on the observation.
I would characterize israel as a terrorist state and a criminal regime from day 1 as the birth of the state was founded on terror (e.g. King David hotel bombing) and by terrorists (Irgun, Haganah, LEHI, and more). Likud originated from a terrorist organization similar to ISIS. the jews are the original creator of modern terrorism and the global leading practitioner for the past 7 decades. there are volumes on the subject that can fill shelves.
Winning without fighting is considered the most superior victory in Chinese military tradition. National power in today's world resides mainly in economic, trade and technological prowess, of course backed by hard power and an iron will.
You suggest that a surrender by Iran to Israel would be the best possible outcome for China. Who knows, you may be right.
Re: Myth#5 ... more like, if lacking the will to become involved in a messy proxy fight vs the US in Iran, and in the event Iran should falter, China will rather likely face the next one in Pakistan. That comparison might be worth expanding in more detail. Neither Iran nor Pakistan are perfect, Pakistan has participated in countless western-aligned Islamic terrorist schemes, and Pakistan has made deep ties to the US intel/geopolitical apparatus for several generations now. Nevertheless it enjoys the benefit of being directly adjacent to China, being opposed to India, and thus the "all weather partnership" quite naturally overlooks the complications.
very astutue observation on the next potential proxy fight in Pakistan. I think the recent India Pak war has some hallmarks already - there are reasonable speculations the "terrorist attacks" in India that triggered the war bear signs of false flag operation (e.g. the very slow reaction by Indian security forces in a high sensitive region, allowing that they could just be that incompetent).
I agree Pakistan has a very spotty record with the US national security deep state from the days of mujahideen but the same can be said about every Arab state and Turkey. I always find that neighborhood the most natural power peg on the planet. I'd love to hear someone smart to talk about how the Ottomans managed that place?
Pakistan is in a geopolitically critical region on China's border. It also has been a reliable partner. So China will have its back as long as needed. China is clear-eyed in the relationship and knows you seldom get a perfect partner in world affairs. A mutually beneficial relationship is always more stable than ideological purity or blind submission.
Excellent post, you've reassured my own thinking on this. Iran is a big boy, it wants to be independent and there's no harm in that. The Iranians believe they can overcome the west in this latest attempt and I believe they will. After the dust settles, Iran will be stronger, more united, more respected and free to a certain extent from military terrorism. The west, however, will continue on its downward course to oblivion.
wars of choice never pan out - a lesson the hegemon refuses to learn. the blowback has not even started. this is what you get from arrogant and unwise elite who don't understand history and don't think through important matters. the west is plagued with unethical and incompetent leadership and is unreformable. hence, the fall is inevitable.
Thanks for your convincing and informative post. It becomes an immense challenge to defend against the insane monster the West has become. I agree China will win the final showdown as the Empire has been suffering imperial overreach for the last forty years and there is much to be said for allowing it to burn itself out. Its revanchism is sociocidal totally indifferent to the consequences they must ultimately face.
"The US cannot conquer the world but it can ruin it." The open question now is how much more damage will it be allowed to do ?
I was very interested to read of the relations China has with its immediate neighbors.
Millions of us in the West, in defiance and contempt for our own governments look to China and Russia as the arbiters of world peace. Populations of the West have been orphaned and abandoned by our warmongering idiots and too many have yet to realize this cold hard fact.
a very deep Insight and explanation from the Chinese perspective...with new facts regarding Iran's illogical foolish foreign policies towards China and it's approach to India....I thank Mr. Hua Bin for this very interesting essay....learnt a lot today
You should not miss his earlier postings in this series.
I did review all.....it is the very best information and analytical source I have encountered....
thanks much appreciated. I try to be dispassionate and objective and hopefully provide some context.
This is the absolutely best analysis I've read since the conflict begann.....
Very insightful analysis🙏
"joining the Jews"-- inaccurate. "the Jews" makes it sound like all Jews are involved in the Zionist entities' brutal and illegal activities. They are not.
I know there are many pushbacks as the term "jews" seems too general and doesn't distinguish the good jews from the bad. People also use phrases such as "the few good Germans" to separate the good Germans and the bad germans in reference to the crimes committed in WW2. It is certainly more politically correct and palatable to use the term "zionist" instead.
that said, I use the term advisedly because the overwhelming jewish population in israel is supportive of the genocide, many even calling for more violent repressions. they don't distinguish Hamas from the good Palestanians. also you may not like it, but for me, Hamas is just a resistance force, not a terrorist group.
too few jews within Israel or outside, relative to the size of the race, have spoken out against the crimes being committed in their name. while I have uttermost respect for Normal Finkelstein, Ilan Pappe, Max Blumenthal, Jeffrey Sachs, Isreal Shahak (and I am sure I have missed some other good jews), I despise the group collectively as a matter of personal value. Others certainly don't have to share the sentiment. But I write what I believe.
the term zionist implies a tiny minority within a much larger group who don't share its beliefs, like the term Nazi is used when execusing collective german guilt. But most germans back then supported hitler and his extermination of the inferior races. same is the true with the japanese who cheered on its animal rampage across China, Korea and southeast Asia. I don't feel a need to fig leaf their collective guilt. I personally hope to see them on the receiving end of collective punishment.
International jewry includes anti-Israel voices. Jewish Voice for Peace , org. & If Not Now org., e.g., in the U.S., Medea Benjamin (example of high profile Jews in "peace" movement, e.g., Naturei Karta, religious anti-zionist jews (int'l).
If there is any hope of a successful response against these imperial wars, it will have to be international. And most likely the above groups being based in the middle class will not play the major role, because their interests differ from that of the global majority. That majority includes all faiths and those of no faith. Anti-zionist jews may be a tiny minority, but I'm sure there are many jews who may be tempted by Israel's wanton genocide to join them. Maybe better not to lump them altogether gratuitously in that case.
there are exceptions to every rule and I don't have the energy to qualify and footnote everyting I write. I also trust my readers to have sophistictaed and analytical minds so they will form their own opinions.
our disagreements are not over facts, but over semantics. Let's just agree to disagree.
Agreed, It would also be difficult for me to flesh out my ideas, at any rate. Cheers.
Yet an overwhelming majority of Jews readily play the victim card as they participate in the burnt-offering Holohoax grifting ritual, amongst other subversive movements that they endorse as part-and-parcel of their core religious sacrament, whether it'd be pornography, sodomy, blood ritual, BLM, feminism, wokism, DEI, amongst others. And the same overwhelming majority of them also deny Jewish dominance of all major institutions across the west, be it out of disingenuity, connivance, or outright delusional ignorance.
Also, let's see what Hitler had to write about of the so-called anti-zionist Jews:
"To outward appearances it seemed as if only one group of Jews championed the Zionism movement, while the great majority disapproved of it, or even repudiated it. But an investigation of the situation showed that those outward appearances were purposely misleading. These outward appearances emerged from a mist of theories which had been produced for reasons of expediency, if not for purposes of downright deception. For that part of Jewry which was styled Liberal did not disown the Zionists as if they were not members of their race but rather as brother Jews who publicly professed their faith in an unpractical way, so as to create a danger for Jewry itself. Thus there was no real rift in their internal solidarity."
Jews is absolutely the correct term as their behavior has been consistent from the early Roman period. Read Stephen Mitford Goodson’s book “The Rise of Central Banking” for a 2000 year narrative. Zionists is merely a cover name for their activities.
One thing I feel the author fails to address is the roles of proxies. In the nuclear age, wars between peers are fought with proxies. For this reason China will need to engage its proxies against the West. Iran is one such player. China doesn't want to be surrounded by Western proxies. We see in Pakistan as China upgrades the defenses with the latest air assets. We will start seeing this in Iran also. My understanding is that China has been sending assets to Iran. It explains why the US has been hesitant in its attack on Iran. It's been several days now since Trump threaten Iran, and the movement of US assets to the Middle East.
Chess was in fact invented in Iran. The word Check used to signify a threat to the king, derives from Shah, the Persian for king.
cool. love those factoids.
I'm skeptical that israel has air superiority over Iran. We haven't seen that many bombings recently and the munitions seem relatively small. I think that what's tehran has likely been cruise missiles launched by Israeli jets outside of Iranian airspace.
Despite the factors that you mention, Hua, which I will assume are more or less correct, you are missing Iran's key role in the overland trade route, the new Silk Road, that China is building...If Iran comes under Western domination, that won't be allowed...Also, Iran is a major oil supplier to China, and that could be disrupted or raised drastically in price...I believe Xi understands all that, and will continue to supply Iran...apparently China is offsetting their oil purchases with the cost of these supplies...
Read of the week right here! Absolute fire!
💖👍100%
Your description of the complexity of Iran-China relationship is edifying. Thinking perhaps their mutual relationship with Pakistan might open the door a bit wider.
Thank you! Very educational for a benighted westerner like me with a sometimes inflated notion of his own geopolitical understanding . Superb! "Go" to it, my friend!