I think you are right, Hua Bin, that China will not do much to help Iran. The real reason is that -- at the moment -- China is winning in the critical economic struggle with the Rest of the World.
China is the Workshop of the World - a role that the UK played in the 19th Century and the US in the 20th Century. Clearly, that brings great advantages to the leading country. We live in a world that was unimaginable even a quarter century ago -- a world in which Volkswagen builds more cars in China than in Germany ... and builds them there cheaper & better too. All the Euro "Green Energy" depends on Chinese wind turbines and Chinese solar panels. Even Russia is more like a developing country as far as China is concerned -- trading commodities like oil & food to China in exchange for sophisticated manufactured goods.
There is no reason for China which is winning the long game of economic supremacy to roll the dice on military activity where surprises & reversals are always possible. The last thing China wants is for Iran to trigger a wider war which could be very damaging to China, and possibly even thermonuclearly existential. It is very much in China's interest to see the Middle East calm down, not to throw fuel on the fire. Will China be able to contribute to defusing the situation in Iran? That is the real question!
wrt your question, I think China or Russia's power to mediate and defuse the situation is quite limited. Israel is a wild dog and not subject to rational persuasion. the only thing that might hold it back is physical limits like bunker buster bombs, refueling jets, and intel that the US supplies. as long as Israel has Trump in their pocket, they will do what they can get away with. It is Iran that has to hurt the jews badly enough for them to stop.
China and Russia will support diplomatically as they are doing now. I suspect covert and indirect military assistance will be made available as well such as Beidou satellite guidance for Iranian missiles, parts and components to keep the Iranina production going, and more purchase of oil.
China will certainly continue to use rare earth elements to chokehold the US war machine supplying the Israeli. this is an added reason for China to tighten the noose with critical minerals.
Unless things have changed radically in the last few weeks China is still by far the biggest trade partner with Israel, surely this could be used to, if not win with out fighting then, at least stop an ongoing genocide?
China has maintained normal trade with most countries, even the most adversarial ones. It is not Beijing's policy choice to weaponize trade but to your point, I also wish personally China would go with a BDS campaign against Israel.
Israeli trade with China is insignificant compared to USD transfers. China wouldn’t bother, just easier to let the natural conflict sort itself out and adapt to the outcome.
Natural conflict is not what ok would would call the twenty months of genocide and an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation but if that's the way you want to frame it enjoy your fantasy
You’re unfamiliar with history and some study would be advised before posting on this serious writer’s substack. You claim 20 months of genocide but this is low-q ignorance.
“Israel has fought a number of conflicts with various Arab forces, most notably in 1948–49, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2006, and 2023–present.” (Britannica).
i think the reader is referring to the genocide happening right now. technically what Israel did before didn't get categorized as genocide, but certainly the intention is there and there should be not debate it has been engaged in ethnic cleansing since its inception. I understand where he is coming from and wouldn't be too hard on the observation.
I would characterize israel as a terrorist state and a criminal regime from day 1 as the birth of the state was founded on terror (e.g. King David hotel bombing) and by terrorists (Irgun, Haganah, LEHI, and more). Likud originated from a terrorist organization similar to ISIS. the jews are the original creator of modern terrorism and the global leading practitioner for the past 7 decades. there are volumes on the subject that can fill shelves.
I think the Chinese government has viewed trade as a normal relationship unless in war times or embargo situation. It is separated from value judgement.
Again I understand the sentiment and hopefully Israel will be punished by righteous people collectively. For example, I personally know a lot of people who simply don't want to have anything to do with that genocidal country and the inhabitants there. Some even resigned corporate directorship from Israel related companies.
But there has not been a trade embargo per se on Israel, even amongst Muslim countries as I understand. Hopefully we'll live in a more morally upright world at some point.
Thanks for the reply and it is the same in the UK, the majority of people believe that Israel should be boycotted, divested and sanctioned and yet those we elect go on supporting the entity. Good to hear your view.
Winning without fighting is considered the most superior victory in Chinese military tradition. National power in today's world resides mainly in economic, trade and technological prowess, of course backed by hard power and an iron will.
Re: Myth#5 ... more like, if lacking the will to become involved in a messy proxy fight vs the US in Iran, and in the event Iran should falter, China will rather likely face the next one in Pakistan. That comparison might be worth expanding in more detail. Neither Iran nor Pakistan are perfect, Pakistan has participated in countless western-aligned Islamic terrorist schemes, and Pakistan has made deep ties to the US intel/geopolitical apparatus for several generations now. Nevertheless it enjoys the benefit of being directly adjacent to China, being opposed to India, and thus the "all weather partnership" quite naturally overlooks the complications.
very astutue observation on the next potential proxy fight in Pakistan. I think the recent India Pak war has some hallmarks already - there are reasonable speculations the "terrorist attacks" in India that triggered the war bear signs of false flag operation (e.g. the very slow reaction by Indian security forces in a high sensitive region, allowing that they could just be that incompetent).
I agree Pakistan has a very spotty record with the US national security deep state from the days of mujahideen but the same can be said about every Arab state and Turkey. I always find that neighborhood the most natural power peg on the planet. I'd love to hear someone smart to talk about how the Ottomans managed that place?
Pakistan is in a geopolitically critical region on China's border. It also has been a reliable partner. So China will have its back as long as needed. China is clear-eyed in the relationship and knows you seldom get a perfect partner in world affairs. A mutually beneficial relationship is always more stable than ideological purity or blind submission.
Thanks for your convincing and informative post. It becomes an immense challenge to defend against the insane monster the West has become. I agree China will win the final showdown as the Empire has been suffering imperial overreach for the last forty years and there is much to be said for allowing it to burn itself out. Its revanchism is sociocidal totally indifferent to the consequences they must ultimately face.
"The US cannot conquer the world but it can ruin it." The open question now is how much more damage will it be allowed to do ?
I was very interested to read of the relations China has with its immediate neighbors.
Millions of us in the West, in defiance and contempt for our own governments look to China and Russia as the arbiters of world peace. Populations of the West have been orphaned and abandoned by our warmongering idiots and too many have yet to realize this cold hard fact.
"joining the Jews"-- inaccurate. "the Jews" makes it sound like all Jews are involved in the Zionist entities' brutal and illegal activities. They are not.
Yet an overwhelming majority of Jews readily play the victim card as they participate in the burnt-offering Holohoax grifting ritual, amongst other subversive movements that they endorse as part-and-parcel of their core religious sacrament, whether it'd be pornography, sodomy, blood ritual, BLM, feminism, wokism, DEI, amongst others. And the same overwhelming majority of them also deny Jewish dominance of all major institutions across the west, be it out of disingenuity, connivance, or outright delusional ignorance.
Also, let's see what Hitler had to write about of the so-called anti-zionist Jews:
"To outward appearances it seemed as if only one group of Jews championed the Zionism movement, while the great majority disapproved of it, or even repudiated it. But an investigation of the situation showed that those outward appearances were purposely misleading. These outward appearances emerged from a mist of theories which had been produced for reasons of expediency, if not for purposes of downright deception. For that part of Jewry which was styled Liberal did not disown the Zionists as if they were not members of their race but rather as brother Jews who publicly professed their faith in an unpractical way, so as to create a danger for Jewry itself. Thus there was no real rift in their internal solidarity."
Jews is absolutely the correct term as their behavior has been consistent from the early Roman period. Read Stephen Mitford Goodson’s book “The Rise of Central Banking” for a 2000 year narrative. Zionists is merely a cover name for their activities.
One thing I feel the author fails to address is the roles of proxies. In the nuclear age, wars between peers are fought with proxies. For this reason China will need to engage its proxies against the West. Iran is one such player. China doesn't want to be surrounded by Western proxies. We see in Pakistan as China upgrades the defenses with the latest air assets. We will start seeing this in Iran also. My understanding is that China has been sending assets to Iran. It explains why the US has been hesitant in its attack on Iran. It's been several days now since Trump threaten Iran, and the movement of US assets to the Middle East.
a very deep Insight and explanation from the Chinese perspective...with new facts regarding Iran's illogical foolish foreign policies towards China and it's approach to India....I thank Mr. Hua Bin for this very interesting essay....learnt a lot today
I'm skeptical that israel has air superiority over Iran. We haven't seen that many bombings recently and the munitions seem relatively small. I think that what's tehran has likely been cruise missiles launched by Israeli jets outside of Iranian airspace.
thanks. No surprise China is assisting Iran with Beidou and via Pakistan. China has no interest to see Iran fall but it never indulges in megaphone diplomacy. Its support to allies are always low key and even covert. Direct intervention in far off places is simply ruled out by default. China heavily assisted Pakistan's fight with India but most people won't read that in the news beyond the Chinese weapons used by the Pak air force. A lot more happened in the background.
Despite the factors that you mention, Hua, which I will assume are more or less correct, you are missing Iran's key role in the overland trade route, the new Silk Road, that China is building...If Iran comes under Western domination, that won't be allowed...Also, Iran is a major oil supplier to China, and that could be disrupted or raised drastically in price...I believe Xi understands all that, and will continue to supply Iran...apparently China is offsetting their oil purchases with the cost of these supplies...
Thanks, interesting argument, and agree with many points. I am not so sure about Iran “betraying” China sentiment, but you may be right. I tend to assume China has no problems with who Iran chooses to award its contracts to.
But does Iran even want or expect help from China in the first place. President Putin recently said that Russia offered to help Iran develop missiles but Iran declined the offer. So I feel all the complaints about China not doing enough to help Iran is misplaced.
Also, I tend to think China operates on some long term strategy, perhaps premised on helping Iran outlast Israel and US over the next 100 years vs winning this particular conflict.
I think most people have incomplete information and have an overly emotional reaction to the whole thing. I don't think Iran is at immediate risk of collapsing and as you pointed out, there is no evidence Iran is asking for support from either Russia or China. Putin had a long press conference yesterday on a range of subjects. When asked specifically about Iran, he said there was no request for help and in fact Iran turned down any military element in their strategic partnership deal signed some months ago. I think the new president of Iran is hedging his bets and probably wants to reconcile with the US. If you make the bed, you sleep in it.
there was even speculations Mossad got rid of Raisi exactly to have someone like the new guy come in and compromise Iran's relationship with its allies and supporters.
lastly I am quite convinced Iran wants to have its cake and eat it by playing a hedging game like India, except the current regime is simply unacceptable by Israel so there is no chance Iran can become another India. Betraying China might be too strong a characterization but it certainly is not a close ally or a reliable partner. Why would China fight for it?
I think you are right, Hua Bin, that China will not do much to help Iran. The real reason is that -- at the moment -- China is winning in the critical economic struggle with the Rest of the World.
China is the Workshop of the World - a role that the UK played in the 19th Century and the US in the 20th Century. Clearly, that brings great advantages to the leading country. We live in a world that was unimaginable even a quarter century ago -- a world in which Volkswagen builds more cars in China than in Germany ... and builds them there cheaper & better too. All the Euro "Green Energy" depends on Chinese wind turbines and Chinese solar panels. Even Russia is more like a developing country as far as China is concerned -- trading commodities like oil & food to China in exchange for sophisticated manufactured goods.
There is no reason for China which is winning the long game of economic supremacy to roll the dice on military activity where surprises & reversals are always possible. The last thing China wants is for Iran to trigger a wider war which could be very damaging to China, and possibly even thermonuclearly existential. It is very much in China's interest to see the Middle East calm down, not to throw fuel on the fire. Will China be able to contribute to defusing the situation in Iran? That is the real question!
wrt your question, I think China or Russia's power to mediate and defuse the situation is quite limited. Israel is a wild dog and not subject to rational persuasion. the only thing that might hold it back is physical limits like bunker buster bombs, refueling jets, and intel that the US supplies. as long as Israel has Trump in their pocket, they will do what they can get away with. It is Iran that has to hurt the jews badly enough for them to stop.
China and Russia will support diplomatically as they are doing now. I suspect covert and indirect military assistance will be made available as well such as Beidou satellite guidance for Iranian missiles, parts and components to keep the Iranina production going, and more purchase of oil.
China will certainly continue to use rare earth elements to chokehold the US war machine supplying the Israeli. this is an added reason for China to tighten the noose with critical minerals.
Unless things have changed radically in the last few weeks China is still by far the biggest trade partner with Israel, surely this could be used to, if not win with out fighting then, at least stop an ongoing genocide?
China has maintained normal trade with most countries, even the most adversarial ones. It is not Beijing's policy choice to weaponize trade but to your point, I also wish personally China would go with a BDS campaign against Israel.
Israeli trade with China is insignificant compared to USD transfers. China wouldn’t bother, just easier to let the natural conflict sort itself out and adapt to the outcome.
Natural conflict is not what ok would would call the twenty months of genocide and an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation but if that's the way you want to frame it enjoy your fantasy
You’re unfamiliar with history and some study would be advised before posting on this serious writer’s substack. You claim 20 months of genocide but this is low-q ignorance.
“Israel has fought a number of conflicts with various Arab forces, most notably in 1948–49, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 2006, and 2023–present.” (Britannica).
Israel was proclaimed by Ben-Gurion on 5/14/48.
i think the reader is referring to the genocide happening right now. technically what Israel did before didn't get categorized as genocide, but certainly the intention is there and there should be not debate it has been engaged in ethnic cleansing since its inception. I understand where he is coming from and wouldn't be too hard on the observation.
I would characterize israel as a terrorist state and a criminal regime from day 1 as the birth of the state was founded on terror (e.g. King David hotel bombing) and by terrorists (Irgun, Haganah, LEHI, and more). Likud originated from a terrorist organization similar to ISIS. the jews are the original creator of modern terrorism and the global leading practitioner for the past 7 decades. there are volumes on the subject that can fill shelves.
I think the Chinese government has viewed trade as a normal relationship unless in war times or embargo situation. It is separated from value judgement.
Again I understand the sentiment and hopefully Israel will be punished by righteous people collectively. For example, I personally know a lot of people who simply don't want to have anything to do with that genocidal country and the inhabitants there. Some even resigned corporate directorship from Israel related companies.
But there has not been a trade embargo per se on Israel, even amongst Muslim countries as I understand. Hopefully we'll live in a more morally upright world at some point.
Thanks for the reply and it is the same in the UK, the majority of people believe that Israel should be boycotted, divested and sanctioned and yet those we elect go on supporting the entity. Good to hear your view.
Winning without fighting is considered the most superior victory in Chinese military tradition. National power in today's world resides mainly in economic, trade and technological prowess, of course backed by hard power and an iron will.
You suggest that a surrender by Iran to Israel would be the best possible outcome for China. Who knows, you may be right.
Re: Myth#5 ... more like, if lacking the will to become involved in a messy proxy fight vs the US in Iran, and in the event Iran should falter, China will rather likely face the next one in Pakistan. That comparison might be worth expanding in more detail. Neither Iran nor Pakistan are perfect, Pakistan has participated in countless western-aligned Islamic terrorist schemes, and Pakistan has made deep ties to the US intel/geopolitical apparatus for several generations now. Nevertheless it enjoys the benefit of being directly adjacent to China, being opposed to India, and thus the "all weather partnership" quite naturally overlooks the complications.
very astutue observation on the next potential proxy fight in Pakistan. I think the recent India Pak war has some hallmarks already - there are reasonable speculations the "terrorist attacks" in India that triggered the war bear signs of false flag operation (e.g. the very slow reaction by Indian security forces in a high sensitive region, allowing that they could just be that incompetent).
I agree Pakistan has a very spotty record with the US national security deep state from the days of mujahideen but the same can be said about every Arab state and Turkey. I always find that neighborhood the most natural power peg on the planet. I'd love to hear someone smart to talk about how the Ottomans managed that place?
Pakistan is in a geopolitically critical region on China's border. It also has been a reliable partner. So China will have its back as long as needed. China is clear-eyed in the relationship and knows you seldom get a perfect partner in world affairs. A mutually beneficial relationship is always more stable than ideological purity or blind submission.
Thanks for your convincing and informative post. It becomes an immense challenge to defend against the insane monster the West has become. I agree China will win the final showdown as the Empire has been suffering imperial overreach for the last forty years and there is much to be said for allowing it to burn itself out. Its revanchism is sociocidal totally indifferent to the consequences they must ultimately face.
"The US cannot conquer the world but it can ruin it." The open question now is how much more damage will it be allowed to do ?
I was very interested to read of the relations China has with its immediate neighbors.
Millions of us in the West, in defiance and contempt for our own governments look to China and Russia as the arbiters of world peace. Populations of the West have been orphaned and abandoned by our warmongering idiots and too many have yet to realize this cold hard fact.
"joining the Jews"-- inaccurate. "the Jews" makes it sound like all Jews are involved in the Zionist entities' brutal and illegal activities. They are not.
Yet an overwhelming majority of Jews readily play the victim card as they participate in the burnt-offering Holohoax grifting ritual, amongst other subversive movements that they endorse as part-and-parcel of their core religious sacrament, whether it'd be pornography, sodomy, blood ritual, BLM, feminism, wokism, DEI, amongst others. And the same overwhelming majority of them also deny Jewish dominance of all major institutions across the west, be it out of disingenuity, connivance, or outright delusional ignorance.
Also, let's see what Hitler had to write about of the so-called anti-zionist Jews:
"To outward appearances it seemed as if only one group of Jews championed the Zionism movement, while the great majority disapproved of it, or even repudiated it. But an investigation of the situation showed that those outward appearances were purposely misleading. These outward appearances emerged from a mist of theories which had been produced for reasons of expediency, if not for purposes of downright deception. For that part of Jewry which was styled Liberal did not disown the Zionists as if they were not members of their race but rather as brother Jews who publicly professed their faith in an unpractical way, so as to create a danger for Jewry itself. Thus there was no real rift in their internal solidarity."
Jews is absolutely the correct term as their behavior has been consistent from the early Roman period. Read Stephen Mitford Goodson’s book “The Rise of Central Banking” for a 2000 year narrative. Zionists is merely a cover name for their activities.
One thing I feel the author fails to address is the roles of proxies. In the nuclear age, wars between peers are fought with proxies. For this reason China will need to engage its proxies against the West. Iran is one such player. China doesn't want to be surrounded by Western proxies. We see in Pakistan as China upgrades the defenses with the latest air assets. We will start seeing this in Iran also. My understanding is that China has been sending assets to Iran. It explains why the US has been hesitant in its attack on Iran. It's been several days now since Trump threaten Iran, and the movement of US assets to the Middle East.
a very deep Insight and explanation from the Chinese perspective...with new facts regarding Iran's illogical foolish foreign policies towards China and it's approach to India....I thank Mr. Hua Bin for this very interesting essay....learnt a lot today
You should not miss his earlier postings in this series.
I did review all.....it is the very best information and analytical source I have encountered....
thanks much appreciated. I try to be dispassionate and objective and hopefully provide some context.
This is the absolutely best analysis I've read since the conflict begann.....
Very insightful analysis🙏
I'm skeptical that israel has air superiority over Iran. We haven't seen that many bombings recently and the munitions seem relatively small. I think that what's tehran has likely been cruise missiles launched by Israeli jets outside of Iranian airspace.
Hua, you might want to look at this...
https://thecradle.co/articles/pakistan-breaks-ranks-backs-iran-in-war-with-israel
thanks. No surprise China is assisting Iran with Beidou and via Pakistan. China has no interest to see Iran fall but it never indulges in megaphone diplomacy. Its support to allies are always low key and even covert. Direct intervention in far off places is simply ruled out by default. China heavily assisted Pakistan's fight with India but most people won't read that in the news beyond the Chinese weapons used by the Pak air force. A lot more happened in the background.
Despite the factors that you mention, Hua, which I will assume are more or less correct, you are missing Iran's key role in the overland trade route, the new Silk Road, that China is building...If Iran comes under Western domination, that won't be allowed...Also, Iran is a major oil supplier to China, and that could be disrupted or raised drastically in price...I believe Xi understands all that, and will continue to supply Iran...apparently China is offsetting their oil purchases with the cost of these supplies...
Read of the week right here! Absolute fire!
💖👍100%
Chess was in fact invented in Iran. The word Check used to signify a threat to the king, derives from Shah, the Persian for king.
cool. love those factoids.
Thanks, interesting argument, and agree with many points. I am not so sure about Iran “betraying” China sentiment, but you may be right. I tend to assume China has no problems with who Iran chooses to award its contracts to.
But does Iran even want or expect help from China in the first place. President Putin recently said that Russia offered to help Iran develop missiles but Iran declined the offer. So I feel all the complaints about China not doing enough to help Iran is misplaced.
Also, I tend to think China operates on some long term strategy, perhaps premised on helping Iran outlast Israel and US over the next 100 years vs winning this particular conflict.
I think most people have incomplete information and have an overly emotional reaction to the whole thing. I don't think Iran is at immediate risk of collapsing and as you pointed out, there is no evidence Iran is asking for support from either Russia or China. Putin had a long press conference yesterday on a range of subjects. When asked specifically about Iran, he said there was no request for help and in fact Iran turned down any military element in their strategic partnership deal signed some months ago. I think the new president of Iran is hedging his bets and probably wants to reconcile with the US. If you make the bed, you sleep in it.
there was even speculations Mossad got rid of Raisi exactly to have someone like the new guy come in and compromise Iran's relationship with its allies and supporters.
lastly I am quite convinced Iran wants to have its cake and eat it by playing a hedging game like India, except the current regime is simply unacceptable by Israel so there is no chance Iran can become another India. Betraying China might be too strong a characterization but it certainly is not a close ally or a reliable partner. Why would China fight for it?
Great writing, Hua Bin. 2 thumbs-up!